基于计划行为理论的矿工故意违章行为意向研究

为进一步解释和预测矿工故意违章行为意向,寻求可能的干预对策,以计划行为理论(TPB)为基本的理论构架,加入过去行为和示范性规范2个变量,构建了矿工故意违章行为意向假设模型。采取分层随机抽样方法,对412名矿工进行问卷调查,并借助结构方程建模技术对提出的假设模型进行了验证。研究表明:违章态度、知觉行为控制、示范性规范均对故意违章行为意向有显著的正向影响;主观规范对违章行为意向没有显著的直接影响;主观规范和过去行为通过违章态度间接正向影响违章行为意向。违章态度和示范性规范对故意违章行为意向的整体影响系数比较高,转变违章态度以及发挥群体其他成员遵章行为的示范性是降低故意违章行为意向的重要途径。     

中国湿地生态补偿的利益博弈分析

我国采取了一系列加强湿地生态环境保护的措施,推进了湿地生态状况的改善.但在实践过程中,生态保护仍存在着结构性的政策缺位,湿地生态补偿作为调整损害与保护生态环境主体间利益关系的一种制度安排,是保护生态环境的有效措施.从博弈论的角度出发,分析湿地生态补偿的利益相关者,通过建立湿地生态补偿主体和客体的博弈模型,得出湿地生态补偿主体、客体的纳什均衡策略,并提出针对性的建议.     

基于IPA理论的会展旅游目的地形象研究——以苏州市为例

在分析会展旅游目的地形象内涵与构成要素的基础上,以苏州为例,通过实地调研与访谈获取数据,并根据IPA理论分析苏州会展旅游目的地形象的基本特点,提出城市会展旅游目的地形象的提升策略,以期为同类型城市发展会展旅游提供借鉴与参考.     

环境监管失职罪的正确认定

结合真实案例探讨了环境监管失职罪的两个难点问题,主张运用监督过失理论认定监督人的预见范围,运用偶然因果关系的理论分析监督人的失职行为与危害结果之间的因果关系。     

基于通量守恒原理的水质监测非统计不确定性研究

水环境动态监测过程中,结果存在非统计不确定性.以北京市密云水库曹家路小流域安达木河部分汇流河段为研究对象,结合水质和流量数据,分析了单次监测中水质存在的偶然误差下限值,去除其粗大值,以其均值表征动态监测过程中的非统计不确定性.由于研究的汇流河段尺度小,水流经过时间短,迁移转化过程可以忽略,建立的基于通量守恒原理的非统计...     

A test of stress theory: relief workers in refugee camps

The purpose of this paper is to apply a stress model drawn from the literature to the relief and social service workers who have been active in refugee camps for a prolonged period of time. Working in difficult environments, social service workers deliver essential services to refugee populations around the world. A model of four work-stress determinants--tasks, management, appreciation and collaboration--was tested on 274 social workers in five regions of the Middle East (Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, as well as the occupied Palestinian territories of the Gaza Strip and the West Bank). Statistical fit indices were adequate but two relationships were statistically insignificant. The collaboration variable was dropped to create a modified model with tasks indirectly and management and appreciation directly affecting work-related stress. The five direct relationships and two indirect relationships of this modified model are consistent with stress theory, and all relationships--direct and indirect--are statistically significant.     

A simple population theory for mutualism by the use of lattice gas model

The population dynamics of species interactions provides valuable information for life sciences. Lotka-Volterra equations (LVEs) are known to be the most popular model, and they are mainly applied to the systems of predation and competition. However, LVEs often fail to catch the population dynamics of mutualism; the population sizes of species increase infinitely under certain condition (divergence problem). Furthermore, LVEs never predicts the Allee effect in the systems of obligate mutualism. Instead of LVEs, several models have been presented for mutualism; unfortunately, they are rather complicated. It is, therefore, necessary to introduce a simpler theory for mutualism. In the present paper, we apply the lattice gas model which corresponds to the mean-field theory of the usual lattice model. The derived equations are cubic and contain only essential features for mutualism. In the case of obligate mutualism, the dynamics exhibits the Allee effect, and it is almost the same as in the male-female systems. In our model, the population sizes never increase infinitely, because our model contains not only intra- but also interspecific competitions. If the density of one species increases disproportionately in respect of its mutual partners, then this might imply downward pressure on the population abundance of the mutual partner species and such feedback would eventually act as a controlling influence on the population abundance of either species. We discuss several assumptions in our model; in particular, if both species can occupy in each cell simultaneously, then the interspecific competition disappears.     

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns.     

湿地生态系统碳汇与碳源过程的控制因子和临界条件

湿地生态系统由于其自身的结构组分特征,已成为地球表层系统中最为重要的碳汇。但是近年来对于湿地系统的不合理开发利用、降水减少等原因使其碳＂汇＂功能减弱,湿地的碳蓄积能力下降且有转变为碳＂源＂的趋势。文章从湿地生态系统的水份、植物类型、土壤厚度、微生物（底物、pH、温度、氧化还原条件）等方面总结了影响湿地碳汇/源过程的控制因子和临界交替条件。湿地水位的高低决定湿地的氧气环境,与甲烷产生量成正相关,但却与二氧化碳产生量有一定的负相关关系。湿地植物通过通气组织与根系分泌物等影响湿地碳的吸收与排放通量,湿地植株的高度、覆盖率等也是影响湿地作为碳汇与碳源的重要因素。不同深度土层由于其产甲烷菌、甲烷氧化菌等微生物活性不同导致各个土层碳吸收、排放通量的差异,通常浅层土壤中的CO2、CH4的产生率高于深层土壤。微生物的活跃程度直接影响到湿地碳的吸收与排放,影响活跃程度的因素包括湿地底物、pH、温度与氧化还原条件等。湿地底物浓度的增加会在一定程度上提高甲烷的产生率,中性或者是弱碱性环境是产甲烷菌的最适宜条件,在一定范围内温度越高,甲烷产生量越大,而温度对于二氧化碳的影响则是通过改变光合作用来实现。氧化还原电位与甲烷产生量成负相关关系,-150 mV是产甲烷菌产生甲烷的最高电位。总体上,由于湿地生态系统的复杂性和碳吸收与排放过程的复杂,以上这些因子相互作用,且在一定条件下会相互转化。最后针对如何充分发挥湿地生态系统的碳＂汇＂功能,控制湿地向碳＂源＂转化的条件措施方面进行了讨论,包括间歇灌溉、种植多年生草本植物或木本植物等来增强湿地的固碳能力。