How to get there? Assessing motorists’ flash flood risk perception on daily itineraries

Flash floods are characterized by their suddenness, fast and violent movement, rarity, small scale but high level of damage. They are particularly difficult to forecast accurately and there is little lead time for warning. This makes motorists especially vulnerable. Assuming that these flash flood hazard specificities may be the significant factors leading to difficulties for drivers to perceive danger, we used cognitive mapping combined with GIS data processing to assess motorists’ flash flood risk perception on their daily itineraries. The analysis of 200 mental maps collected allows planners to have maps highlighting dangerous areas where risk perception is weak and to identify reasons for this.     

如何提高COD比色法测试的精密度和准确度

针对COD比色法测试的技术特点,通过总结日常分析、验收考核中存在的经验和问题,给出了如何提高COD测试仪测量精密度、准确度的方法和仪器质量的核查方法。     

公共治理与村庄自治视角下农户土地产权认知的形成

农村土地确权登记是国家赋权的重要举措,农户对国家赋权的主观认知则建构了政策实施的重要基础。为辨析不同治理层面国家赋权对农户产权认知的影响特征及其差异性,本文通过理论分析和实证考察相结合的方式,采用引入"国家赋权×农户行为能力"交叉项的Probit模型和Oprobit模型,并利用苏、赣、辽三省2 477户农户的调查数据经验分析了农村土地确权登记在公共治理和村庄自治层面对不同行为能力的农户产权认知的影响。在此基础上,通过求解不同主体行为能力下国家赋权对农户土地产权认知的偏效应,识别了治理层次与主体行为能力的互动特征。研究结果表明,国家赋权更易提高农户对公共治理领域的土地产权安全感知,且对行为能力较强的农户产权安全感知的激励作用大于行为能力较弱的农户,具有典型的主体"歧视性"。经验结果表明,国家赋权更易提高农户对公共治理领域的土地产权安全感知;其次,国家赋权在村庄自治层面对直接行为能力较弱农户的产权安全感知的抑制作用大于直接行为能力较强的农户,但在公共治理层面则对直接行为能力和间接行为能力较强农户的产权安全感知均具有更强的正向激励。为此,本文认为政策改革需关注公共治理和村庄自治层面国家赋权的实施差异及避免主体歧视,产权认知领域的研究则需综合考虑国家赋权、社会规范和主体行为能力三个层次的内在关联。     

A comparative assessment of land management approaches in Bhutan

Arable land in Bhutan is under serious threats of land degradation. Proper land management approach is needed to control soil erosion problems. This study is an attempt to characterize and document the conventional and the community-based land management approaches, applied in Chukha and Dagana districts, respectively. The study tried to make a comparative assessment of their social, economic and environmental impacts on the participating farmers. Farmers’ level of participation in the program, implementation of the soil erosion control measures (SECM) and subsequent social, economic and environmental impacts were found to be significantly influenced by the type of approach applied. The study found that community-based approach is by any means better suited for the study sites than the conventional approach. The social, economic and environmental attributes of respondents from the community-based approach were found to have improved significantly as compared to the conventional approach. The community-based approach was thus found to have a higher potential to meet the diverse requirements of rural subsistence farming communities in Bhutan than the conventional approach.     

基于状态的维修——信息化环境下精确维修的利刃

分析了当前装备维修所面临的信息化战场环境,阐述了信息化环境下装备精确维修的必要性,介绍了维修的分类和基于状态的维修(CBM)概念,分析了CBM的特点,介绍了CBM的研究现状,阐述了CBM的技术可行性。在此基础上,进一步分析了信息化环境下基于CBM的装备精确维修流程。     

旅游者环境质量感知的时空偏差

环境质量评价研究多为客观、专业化评价,较少从常人角度测量居民或游客对环境质量的评价或感知。而常人的评价可能影响其环境行为,进而促进环境保护。通过调查北京、上海、海南三地游客对居住地、旅游目的地、全国三个空间尺度以及当前、未来两个时间尺度的环境质量感知,分析旅游者环境质量感知的时空偏差。研究发现：（1）受访旅游者当前环境质量感知与全国相比存在乐观偏差,即“空间乐观”;与旅游目的地相比却是悲观倾向,即认为居住地环境质量不如旅游目的地;未来环境质量感知存在明显的乐观倾向,即“时间乐观”。（2）各省市旅游者对当前环境质量感知存在差异,与客观环境质量评价（EQI值）对比,安徽等8个省份的旅游者相对乐观,北京等7个省市旅游者则相对悲观;各省市旅游者未来环境质量感知的乐观偏差程度也存在差异。     

铅暴露致中华鲟（Acipenser sinensis）幼鱼弯曲畸形与畸形恢复(Exposure of Lead to Juvenile Acipenser sinensis: Effects on Body Deformation and Recovery)

铅是一种常见的污染物,在水环境中广泛分布并在水生食物链中富集,具有持久的生态效应.中华鲟(Acipenser sinensis)是我国特有的珍稀濒危大型洄游性鱼类,极具学术价值和生态价值.为了探索中华鲟在生命早期接触铅后的损伤和自我修复机制,采用水溶液静态置换法,从中华鲟受精卵发育至96h开始,进行了16周的Pb2+暴露试验,随后继续6周的排放试验.结果显示:经0.8mg·L-1和1.6mg·L-1的Pb2+暴露16周,中华鲟幼鱼会发生弯曲畸形,而0.2mg·L-1Pb2+暴露组未出现畸形个体.畸形弯曲位置主要发生在近胸鳍起点处以及背鳍起点至尾鳍末端之间,多伴有尾鳍末端下垂.Pb2+暴露浓度越高,畸形弯曲越严重,但未见椎骨变形.畸形个体的自主活动能力和摄食能力明显降低.Pb2+排放后,畸形个体的弯曲程度由重度向轻度转变而恢复正常,弯曲程度越轻恢复越快,畸形恢复个体的自主活动能力和摄食能力均明显得到恢复并逐渐复原.表明中华鲟幼鱼具有较强的排铅能力和铅损伤后的自我修复能力.     

圆柱齿轮冷锻成形技术探讨

探讨了几种圆柱齿轮冷锻成形技术 ,对圆柱齿轮冷锻特性进行了分析 ,并运用系统的观点对提高冷锻圆柱齿轮的轮齿精度做了探讨