西藏日太阳总辐射估算模型的优化与时间尺度效应

根据2012～2014年拉萨站点的日太阳辐射观测数据,对3种日太阳总辐射估算模型(左大康、Prescoff和王炳忠等提出的估算模型)的估算结果和实际观测结果进行误差检验分析,结果表明:3种模型都通过了显著性检验,其平均绝对误差(MAE)分别为6.17 MJ/(m~2·d)、6.42 MJ/(m~2·d)和12.31 MJ/(m~2·d),均方根误差(RMSE)分别为1.60 MJ/(m~2·d)、1.65 MJ/(m~2·d)和2.78 MJ/(m~2·d),表明利用地理位置信息和日照时数的左大康估算模型对拉萨日太阳总辐射的估算效果优于Prescoff和王炳忠估算模型。利用左大康估算模型分别估算得到2015年拉萨、那曲和葛尔地区的日太阳总辐射值,并进行模型验证。通过分析拉萨1971～2015年的太阳总辐射变化和周期性特征,研究日太阳总辐射估算模型的时间尺度效应。按照11年和四季两种不同的时间尺度,利用线性回归法对日太阳总辐射估算结果和实际观测结果进行误差和相关性分析,得到经验参数a和b的值与时间尺度有一定关系。11年和四季两种时间尺度除夏季以外,其他时间拟合模型的精度均得到了提高。通过线性回归法得出45年的西藏日太阳总辐射优化估算模型,该模型估算日太阳总辐射的误差小于左大康模型,估算精度较高。     

黄河中游地区水土流失治理与经济发展战略选择

根治黄河中游地区严重的水土流失,恢复其昔日良好的生态环境状况,自然条件是具备的,技术上是成熟的。为实现上述目标,在经济上摆脱贫困是前提,选择发展战略是关键。基于上述看法,本文提出了黄河中游地区经济发展战略及农业生产结构调整的基本途径和政策措施。     

内蒙古能源结构调整的CO_2减排成本初探

在全球气候变化问题不断升温的大背景下,低碳经济的概念频繁见诸报端。节能减排是内蒙古发展低碳经济的必由之路。优化能源结构,合理布局区域经济,是内蒙古实现节能减排,并保持经济快速发展的重要内容。因而,研究内蒙古能源结构调整引起的CO2减排成本变化非常有意义。     

A meteorologically adjusted ensemble Kalman filter approach for inversing daily emissions: A case study in the Pearl River Delta, China

The conventional Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), which is now widely used to calibrate emission inventories and to improve air quality simulations, is susceptible to simulation errors of meteorological inputs, making accurate updates of high temporal-resolution emission inventories challenging. In this study, we developed a novel meteorologically adjusted inversion method (MAEInv) based on the EnKF to improve daily emission estimations. The new method combines sensitivity analysis and bias correction to alleviate the inversion biases caused by errors of meteorological inputs. For demonstration, we used the MAEInv to inverse daily carbon monoxide (CO) emissions in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, China. In the case study, 60% of the total CO simulation biases were associated with sensitive meteorological inputs, which would lead to the overestimation of daily variations of posterior emissions. Using the new inversion method, daily variations of emissions shrank dramatically, with the percentage change decreased by 30%. Also, the total amount of posterior CO emissions estimated by the MAEInv decreased by 14%, indicating that posterior CO emissions might be overestimated using the conventional EnKF. Model evaluations using independent observations revealed that daily CO emissions estimated by MAEInv better reproduce the magnitude and temporal patterns of ambient CO concentration, with a higher correlation coefficient (R, +37.0%) and lower normalized mean bias (NMB, -17.9%). Since errors of meteorological inputs are major sources of simulation biases for both low-reactive and reactive pollutants, the MAEInv is also applicable to improve the daily emission inversions of reactive pollutants.     

工作场所手传振动的测量与评估——以割草机和绿篱机为例

根据ISO 5349:2001规定，将三轴加速度传感器安装在割草机和绿篱机的手柄上，通过振动分析仪AWA 6258测量割草机和绿篱机的频率计权振动总值，以进行手传振动的危害评估。结果表明:割草机和绿篱机的日振动暴露量A(8)值均超过了我国标准规定的日暴露振动限值3.5 m/s2，预计分别经过1.8～8.5 a和1.9～5.2 a后，暴露于割草和修枝工种人群的10%以上将出现振动性白指，为了有效降低或避免手臂振动病的发生，该行业的作业人员每日接触振动的时间应该控制在2.6 h以内。     

北京市场常见水产品中总汞、甲基汞分布特征及食用风险

以甲苯二次萃取-直接测汞的方法对北京市场常见水产品中的甲基汞进行分析测定,并评价了食用人群的暴露风险。分析样品包括大黄鱼（Pseudosciaena crocea）、虾（Penaeus chinensis）等9种常见海产品以及武昌鱼（Megalobrama amblycephala Yih）、鳙鱼（Aristichthys nobilis）2种淡水海产品。测定结果表明：海产品中总汞和甲基汞质量分数要远高于淡水鱼中的总汞和甲基汞质量分数,总汞绝大多数是以甲基汞的形式存在,所占比例从74.7%到96.0%不等;对其中3种鱼类的鱼体甲基汞分布研究表明：肌肉中的甲基汞质量分数最高,肝脏中次之,鱼鳃中质量分数最低。根据我国水产品甲基汞标准,本研究中水产品甲基汞质量分数均低于国家标准,但根据世界卫生组织（WHO）和美国环保署EPA颁布的甲基汞摄入量参考值,食用银鳕鱼等甲基汞质量分数相对较高的水产品仍然存在一定的风险,应注意限量。     

动物性食品中PCBs的生物有效性及人体日暴露评估

通过测定上海市售动物性食品中PCBs的浓度和生物有效性,评估该地区PCBs的人体日暴露量.结果表明,不同种类食品中PCBs的浓度在未检出~3734.3pg/g(湿重)之间,3~6氯PCBs为主要同系物.鱼类中PCBs浓度高于畜类、禽类和软体类.鱼类PCBs的浓度水平遵循以下两规律:海水鱼>淡水鱼;肉食性鱼>杂食性鱼>草食性鱼.采用模拟人体胃肠消化过程测得PCBs的生物有效性,由于食品中脂肪含量与PCBs的生物有效性具有显著的线性关系,故可用于计算样品中PCBs的生物有效性.该地区居民每天通过动物性食品摄入的PCBs量为24439.3pg/d,以PCBs的生物有效性计量为5034.5pg/d.对不同暴露源(包括灰尘和大气颗粒物)的分析表明,鱼类是PCBs人体暴露的主要贡献者,约占人体PCBs日暴露的60%.     

黄山山底大气气溶胶数浓度日变化

利用美国MSP公司生产的宽范围粒径谱仪(WPS)于2011年5月至9月在黄山山底(寨西)采集的气溶胶观测数据,分析了黄山山底大气气溶胶数浓度的日变化特征.结果表明晴天气溶胶数浓度日变化特征明显,气溶胶粒子总数浓度在6:00,12:00和18:00达到峰值.人为活动,湍流混合及山谷风是影响黄山山底气溶胶日变化的主要因素.剔除交通污染时段后,气溶胶粒子数平均浓度减少319个/cm3,即减少12.17%.其中,0.01~0.02μm,0.02~0.05μm,0.05~0.1μm,0.1~0.5μm,0.5~1.0μm,1.0~2.5μm粒径段气溶胶粒子数浓度分别降低了31.32%,20.29%,6.59%,7.49%,1.23%,2.51%.机动车尾气排放对0.01~0.05μm粒径段气溶胶的影响最明显,其气溶胶浓度降低百分比为25.81%.     

Fish as an indicator of aquatic environment: Multielemental neutron activation analysis of nutrient and pollutant elements in fish from Indian coastal areas

Fish is the main food in coastal areas and its analysis for toxic metals has been used as an indicator of the pollution status of the aquatic environment. Several different fish species from the three Indian coasts, Visakhapatnam in the east, Mumbai in the west and Mangalore in the south west and also inland freshwater fish from Nagpur in the central region for comparison were analyzed for up to 20 elements (As, Au, Ba, Br, Cl, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, K, Mn, Na, P, Rb, Sb, Sc, Se, Sr, Zn) by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). Dried fish samples in powdered form were irradiated with thermal neutrons in a nuclear reactor followed by high resolution gamma ray spectrometry at different intervals. Several Reference Materials (RMs) of biological origin were analyzed for quality assurance and data validation. Elemental contents in different fish species vary in a wide range depending on the species, its size, location, and aquatic environment. Fish from Mangalore showed highest mean contents of Cr (14.8?±?29.9?µg?g^?1), Cu (1005?±?643?µg?g^?1) and Sb (849?±?888?ng?g^?1) whereas those from Mumbai exhibited highest Hg (2066?±?2146?ng?g^?1) and P (20.3?±?4.63?µg?g^?1) but lowest Cu (6.30?±?3.10?µg?g^?1) contents. Fish from all the regions showed significant amounts of nutrient elements such as Na, K, P, Mn, Fe, Se and Zn as well as some pollutant elements (Br, Cr, Sb, Hg). No regularity in variation of elemental contents with the size was observed. Prawn (Panaeus latisulcatus), a popular fish species from four different regions showed wide variation in elemental contents of Cr, Mn, Fe, Zn, Se, P including toxic pollutants, Sb and Hg. An attempt has been made to calculate daily dietary intake (DDI) for some nutrient elements from Indian fish. Elemental data for Cr, Cu, Fe, Hg, Se, and Zn have been compared with those from other fish exporting countries.     

Working with indicators: description of states of territorial adjustment for protected natural areas

As is the case to date with respect to sustainability indicators, there is an enormous quantity of information available about their basic components (social, economic and environmental), but these are generally dealt with in a sectoral and fragmented manner, and the components have been analysed and approached in a more or less independent fashion. On the other hand, it is difficult to find indicators that encompass all the dimensions of sustainability. The topic chosen for this research is sustainability organised in a systematic fashion, which entails taking the combination of issues that affect each subsystem and investigating the states of territorial adjustment that exist between each of them. In short, it is the possibility of establishing a sustainable territorial development pattern, accepting that the economic and social activities that utilise the natural resources influence sustainability, and that they will do so to a greater or lesser extent depending on the effectiveness of the conservation of the stock of resources. The Territorial Adjustment Indicator System (TAIS) is a good tool that enables the management, assessment and monitoring of development processes in PNAs (protected natural areas), facilitating homogeneity and uniformity to aid comparison between protected areas in the centre-south of Spain, principally those areas designated as natural parks (NPs).