节庆营销对景区年内客流量的边际弹性及调节限度--以内蒙古阿拉善盟5个4A级景区为例

节庆营销是影响旅游活动年内变化的重要因素。优化节庆活动,拉长旅游活动“旺季”,是推动旅游业平稳发展的重要问题。以内蒙古阿拉善盟5个4A级景区为例,采用带虚拟变量的回归模型分析了节庆营销对景区客流量年内变化的边际弹性。结果发现:5个景区4年节庆活动边际弹性≥3.0,气候舒适度边际弹性≥1.0。为缓解旅游活动的年内集中性,需要把节庆活动调整至4—9月,平滑客流量的年内分布。     

Assessment of Alternative Methods for Statistically Downscaling Daily GCM Precipitation Outputs to Simulate Regional Streamflow

This study applied three statistical downscaling methods: (1) bias correction and spatial disaggregation at daily time scale (BCSD_daily); (2) a modified version of BCSD which reverses the order of spatial disaggregation and bias correction (SDBC), and (3) the bias correction and stochastic analog method (BCSA) to downscale general circulation model daily precipitation outputs to the subbasin scale for west‐central Florida. Each downscaled climate input dataset was then used in an integrated hydrologic model to examine differences in ability to simulate retrospective streamflow characteristics. Results showed the BCSD_daily method consistently underestimated mean streamflow because the highly spatially correlated small precipitation events produced by this method resulted in overestimation of evapotranspiration. Highly spatially correlated large precipitation events produced by the SDBC method resulted in overestimation of the standard deviation of wet season daily streamflow and the magnitude/frequency of high streamflow events. BCSA showed better performance than the other methods in reproducing spatiotemporal statistics of daily precipitation and streamflow. This study demonstrated differences in statistical downscaling techniques propagate into significant differences in streamflow predictions, and underscores the need to carefully select a downscaling method that reproduces precipitation characteristics important for the hydrologic system under consideration.     

1960—2019年秦岭气候带界限的变化研究

受全球变化的影响,温度带边界在空间上的变化呈现出向高纬度方向显著移动的趋势,其中亚热带区空间分布对全球变暖的响应较为敏感,对其边界空间变化特征的研究对于认识全球变化对自然景观的潜在影响具有重要科学意义。基于秦岭及其周边74个气象站点1960—2019年日均气温数据,选取保证率80%的日均温≥10 ℃持续日220天等值线和1月0 ℃等温线为北亚热带北界指标,探讨了近60年气候变暖背景下秦岭气候带界限的变化趋势。研究表明：（1）1960—2019年秦岭日均温≥10 ℃持续日呈显著上升趋势,其变化率为3.268 d/10 a;秦岭1月平均气温呈弱显著上升趋势,其变化率为0.179 ℃/10 a。（2）60年来秦岭北亚热带北界发生了明显的抬升,平均抬升高度约为228.89 m;从经度上看,中段106°~111°E范围内北亚热带北界的变化最为强烈,60年来上升高度达308.81 m,明显高于东西北三段（东段上升165.69 m,西段上升243.33 m,北段上升267.01 m）。（3）60年来秦岭北亚热带过渡带出现了明显的攀升,且向北移动;秦岭以北“跨越式”地出现北亚热带气候格局。气温突变后,秦岭北亚热带过渡带形成从秦岭南坡延伸到秦岭东部,并向北推进向西进入关中平原的格局,秦岭南坡作为北亚热带和暖温带的分界作用有所减弱。随着气候的变暖,秦岭北亚热带过渡带可能部分或整体转变为北亚热带,北亚热带将从秦岭南坡到秦岭北坡呈连续带状分布,北亚热带北界可能会跨越秦岭山脉。     

长春市郊区蔬菜有机磷农药残留与健康风险评价

为了明晰长春市郊区蔬菜有机磷农药残留现况,原位采集7种214个蔬菜样品,采用气相色谱法(GC-FPD)对11种有机磷农药进行分析测定,并采用目标危险系数(THQ)法等对其风险进行了预测研究.结果表明,样品可食用部分有机磷农药含量超过与低于最大残留限量(MRL)的比率分别为23.4%和68.7%,仅7.9%样品未检出有机磷农药.有机磷农药检出率顺序依次为:二嗪农(82.2%)甲拌磷(45.8%)乐果(29.4%)甲基对硫磷(27.6%)氧化乐果(23.8%)敌敌畏(22.9%)杀螟硫磷(21%)倍硫磷(18.7%)对硫磷(18.2%)甲胺磷(17.3%)马拉硫磷(12.1%).叶菜类蔬菜有机磷超标率高于根茎类和茄果类蔬菜.不同种类蔬菜有机磷农药超标率顺序依次为:葱(82.5%)萝卜(37.5%)辣椒(17.2%)白菜(14.3%)黄瓜(3.2%)茄子(2.9%)西红柿(0%).49.5%蔬菜中检测到1种以上有机磷农药.目标平均危险系数(ave THQ)均小于1,ave HI为0.462.因此,从蔬菜有机磷农药平均含量看,目前蔬菜中的有机磷农药不会对市民造成明显的健康风险.     

Monitoring of Daily Integrated Exposure of Outdoor Workers to Respirable Particulate Matter in an Urban Region of India

It is more and more recognised that an estimation of the exposure of the population to air pollutants is more relevant than the ambient air quality, since it gives a better indication of health risk. Outdoor workers in an urban region are generally of low income status and are exposed to higher levels of both indoor and outdoor air pollution. Hence respondents from this population subgroup have been selected for this study. Outdoor workers are divided into two categories, viz. traffic constables and casual outdoor workers like watchmen, roadside shopkeepers etc. Most of the respondents are from the lower income group. Each respondent is monitored for a continuous 48-hour period. The sampling frequency is once a week.The study region is situated in the north-west part of the Greater Mumbai Municipal Corporation. It can be classified as industrial cum residential area. The daily integrated exposure of the outdoor workers consists of two major micro-environments, viz. occupational and indoor residential.A personal air sampler was used along with a cyclone to measure levels of Respirable Particulate Matter (RPM). The cyclone has a 50% removal efficiency for particle diameter of 5 m. Paired samples of PM10 (ambient) and RPM (personal) were collected to establish the correlation between them. The average 24-hour integrated exposure to RPM was 322 g/m3 and exceeded the corresponding PM10 level observed at the nearest Ambient Air Quality Monitoring Station by a factor of 2.25. The 90% confidence interval for this exposure is 283–368 g/m3. This study clearly demonstrates that the daily integrated exposure and therefore the health risk of outdoor workers in an urban area is significantly more serious than that indicated by ambient air quality data.     

Sitting Posture,Postural Discomfort,and Visual Performance: A Critical View on the Interdependence of Cognitive and Anthropometric Factors in the VDU Workplace

The study focuses on individual and standard visual display unit (VDU) workplaces with respect to performance and muscular load. Three different work settings were realized: The workplace was either adjusted to individual preferences or to the European standard. The third condition mirrored exactly the individual setting, however participants were told that it was set according to another standard. Dependent variables were visual performance in a search task, the rated muscular load, and individual preferences. Results show that both individual work settings yielded a superior performance as compared to the standard. However, performance and muscular comfort improved when participants knew they had adjusted the workplace. Apparently, VDU users follow a intuitive rationale adjusting their work setting minimizing muscular load and optimizing performance.     

Structural Adjustment of Oasis Agriculture in Xinjiang

Abstract

Xinjiang's oasis agriculture has made enormous strides over past decades. Structural adjustment of oasis agriculture sector has promoted production diversification. Xinjiang's oasis agriculture sector is entering a new era. The era means more adjustments in oasis agricultural and rural economic structure so as to realize the sustainable development of agriculture. By summing and analyzing the main problems in Xinjinag's oasis agricultural structure, such as raising farmer's income, industry structure within agriculture, rural urbanization, pressure coming from market, agricultural environment degradation, puts forward the thinking, director and countermeasures to adjust oasis agricultural structure.     

重大决策的环境影响评价实证探讨

该文在阐述亟待建立重大决策环评制度的基础上，提出了重大决策环评的特点，程序，方法，并以江苏省和第三次发展机遇－结构调整为实例，进行实证研究。     

不同园林绿地类型内空气PM_(2.5)浓度的动态变化及其滞尘效应分析

通过对不同园林绿地类型内空气PM_(2.5)的检测,结果发现:PM_(2.5)浓度日变化规律均呈现早晚高午间低的双峰单谷型趋势。各绿地类型内空气PM_(2.5)浓度10月最低,8月最高。全年空气PM_(2.5)浓度均值从大至小依次为夏季>冬季>春季>秋季。不同天气状况下空气PM_(2.5)浓度的大小排序依次为阴天>晴天>雨天>雨后天晴。复混的植被结构对空气颗粒物的滞尘能力大于单一的植被结构,按滞尘能力大小排序依次为阔叶乔灌草、针叶乔灌草、阔叶乔草、灌木草坪、草坪。