Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

在役管道防腐层的失效与维修

介绍了管道防腐层失效的原因和方式,指出水和氧气是防腐层失效的原因,含水量和含氧量决定腐蚀程度,提出对防腐层及时检查与修复等措施.     

某厂氩气纯化器失效分析及对策

某厂氩气纯化器是由1Cr18Ni9不锈钢制成,在使用过程中出现致密性的网状裂纹开裂。详细论述了氩气纯化器开裂失效的原因,并通过理论分析及实践摸索,找出了应对氩气纯化器失效的对策。并在实际运行中得到了验证,确保了新制氩气纯化器的安全可靠运行。     

天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价技术研究

为研究天然气长输管道失效个人生命风险,提出一种以人员伤亡概率为指标的天然气管道失效后果风险评价方法。基于天然气管道的失效概率和失效致死长度参数,建立天然气长输管道生命风险评价模型。用该模型,对国内某城市住宅小区内带腐蚀缺陷的天然气管线进行定量风险分析。借鉴英国天然气输送公司数据,确定天然气管线个人生命风险值。案例证明,用所建立的天然气管道失效个人生命风险评价模型能够有效地分析带缺陷天然气管道失效后果,实现天然气管道的个人安全生命风险全定量评价。     

用有限元强度折减法求解坝坡抗滑稳定安全系数

通过对有限元强度折减法的理论研究,将此法应用到尾矿坝的静力稳定计算中.采用有限元强度折减法和极限平衡法对某尾矿坝进行了坝坡抗滑稳定安全系数的计算,计算结果表明,在应用有限元强度折减法时,采用不同的D-P准则计算出的滑动面基本相同且与传统方法相近,其中D-P3准则计算的安全系数更加接近瑞典圆弧法.因此应用有限元强度折减法求解尾矿坝静力稳定安全系数是可行的,同时说明有限元法可以较好的模拟实际工程中的复杂几何断面形状和材料非线性等问题.     

降雨条件下尾矿坝饱和-半饱和渗流模拟分析

降雨条件下,由于渗透压力的存在,降低了尾矿坝坝坡的整体稳定性,可能产生坝体自身的变形和破坏,甚至导致尾矿库溃坝发生.针对某尾矿库,分析了降雨条件下对尾矿坝渗流及稳定的影响,运用饱和-非饱和渗流理论及降雨入渗理论,分析了尾矿坝渗流场的变化过程,根据计算出来的瞬态渗流场,利用非饱和尾砂抗剪强度理论,对尾矿坝的瞬态稳定性进行了分析.研究成果对于提高尾矿坝降雨条件下安全运行,降低尾矿库溃坝事故发生率具有重要意义.     

基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型研究

重点阐述了基于贝叶斯网络的机械安全性评估模型的建立过程,应用贝叶斯网络建立了开式压力机安全性评估模型,对冲手事故模型中的共因失效节点进行了说明,并最终计算得出开式压力机冲手事故的发生概率.计算结果分析表明:对于系统基本事件之间有共因和相关关系的系统,BN计算结果使得事故后果概率明显增大,设计者和管理者不能忽略共因和相关关系对系统风险的影响.     

某炼油厂冷却循环水系统故障与危害性分析

根据采集的某炼油厂一年的冷却循环水系统的故障数据,采用故障模式影响及危害性分析方法对该系统的可靠性进行了分析.由该系统结构特点,划分了水冷塔、换热器、水冷塔风机、水泵、水管、阀门等7个子系统及19种故障模式,统计了各子系统的故障率,分析了系统的故障模式及其故障原因,计算了各子系统的危害度.结果表明水泵及水冷塔风机的危害度最高,换热器的危害度排第三,但其故障率排第四,说明在做故障分析时不能只统计故障率而不进行危害度分析.最后提出了相应的改进措施,经过一年的实际运行,效果明显.     

集对分析法在尾矿坝稳定性安全评价中的应用

本文运用相关性分析,将与尾矿坝稳定有关的参数和设计指标进行分类,建立了相互独立指标的尾矿坝稳定性评价指标体系,并应用集对理论建立了尾矿坝稳定性评价模型。随后通过国内尾矿库专家系统对体系各指标进行的评估,结合层次分析法,得到了各指标的权重;根据集对分析法,并将指标分成3个级别,由于归一化联系数μ的取值范围[-1,1],按照"均分原则",从而提出尾矿库运行期稳定等级的划分方法。最后,应用尾矿坝稳定性评价模型对某尾矿坝稳定性进行计算分析,实例分析表明,本文建立的尾矿坝稳定性评价指标体系和安全评价模型,可以用于评估尾矿库运行期稳定性的状况。     

Prevention of an atmospheric storage tank bund failure

Secondary containment (bunds, drip trays, interceptors/sumps) is an integral part of many chemical, petrochemical, as well as agricultural, food and pharmaceutical facilities. Bunds are the built-in cases for accidental liquid substance spillage where there is a hazard that a substance could leak into the surroundings and the potential of health or environmental damage. The authors focus on the cases installed in large-volume atmospheric tanks storing hazardous chemicals in liquid form, where the bund failure occurred. In the first part of the study, a database of these accidents was created, numbering a total of 15 items. Attention was paid to the course of the accident, its causes and consequences. Several basic representative scenarios of bund failure have also been developed. The second part of the study is devoted mainly to the measures against the bund failure, such as risk assessment, technical and organizational measures. The aim of this study is to provide readers (including experts in the field of safety engineering, maintenance experts and building designers) with the information that can subsequently be used in the risk assessment of bund failure, possibly also for planning the construction of new bunds, or revitalization and maintenance of the existing ones.