《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的环境健康效果评估

为了定量评估《大气十条》实施带来的环境健康效益,本文首先依据PM_(2.5)浓度和人口数据,分析2013～2017年全国人口加权浓度的变化,其次利用Ben MAP模型对全国338个地级及以上城市2013年PM_(2.5)基准情景和2017年PM_(2.5)控制情景进行分析,定量分析全国31个省(市)及338个地级及以上城市减少过早死亡人数.结果表明,由于PM_(2.5)浓度大幅下降,2013～2017年全国PM_(2.5)人口加权浓度呈逐年下降趋势;北京、天津、河北等京津冀及周边地区减少过早死亡人数最多. 2017年全国280个城市避免过早死亡人数有所增加,58个城市避免过早死亡人数有所下降.以WHO过渡期第1阶段目标值(PM_(2.5)年均浓度为35μg·m-3)作为控制情景,估算2013年全国过早死亡人数约为101 293人,2017年约为41 080人,《大气十条》的实施大约避免60 213人过早死亡.依据支付意愿法调查结果,估算增加的健康效益约为549. 7亿元.     

冰川水资源资产负债表编制实践

冰川是自然资源重要组分。因受认知所限,当前水资源资产负债表编制中尚缺乏对冰川资源的考虑。参考水资源资产负债表编制案例,结合冰川水资源自身特征,构建了冰川水资源资产负债表。研究表明：冰川水资源的独特性使其资产负债核算与其他类型水资源存在差异;冰川水资源资产包括水量资产和水域资产,即冰川冰储量和冰川融水径流量,冰川面积和冰川融水水域面积;冰川水资源负债主要来源于人类活动造成的冰川水资源消退和过耗、冰川融水环境损害和由此导致的冰川水资源服务衰退。青藏高原大江大河源区是冰川水资源负债区,而其负债却成为中下游的收益。应建立国家或下游为主导的水资源补偿机制,以冰川水资源流量变化为依据,统筹管理青藏高原大江大河源区流域水资源,适度对源区进行冰川水资源价值补偿。     

Programmed cell death induced by modified clay in controlling Prorocentrum donghaiense bloom

Modified clay (MC), an effective material used for the emergency elimination of algal blooms, can rapidly reduce the biomass of harmful algal blooms (HABs) via flocculation. After that, MC can still control bloom population through indirect effects such as oxidative stress, which was initially proposed to be related to programmed cell death (PCD) at molecular level. To further study the MC induced cell death in residual bloom organisms, especially identifying PCD process, we studied the physiological state of the residual Prorocentrum donghaiense. The experimental results showed that flocculation changed the physiological state of the residual cells, as evidenced by growth inhibition and increased reactive oxygen species production. Moreover, this research provides biochemical and ultrastructural evidence showing that MC induces PCD in P. donghaiense. Nuclear changes were observed, and increased caspase-like activity, externalization of phosphatidylserine and DNA fragmentation were detected in MC-treated groups and quantified. And the mitochondrial apoptosis pathway was activated in both MC-treated groups. Besides, the features of MC-induced PCD in a unicellular organism were summarized and its concentration dependent manner was proved. All our preliminary results elucidate the mechanism through which MC can further control HABs by inducing PCD and suggest a promising application of PCD in bloom control.     

基于GSK-AdaBoost-LightGBM的交通事故死亡人数预测研究

交通事故预测研究有助于降低交通事故发生的概率。为提高交通事故预测模型的精度,首先应用网格搜索法获得LightGBM模型的最优超参数,并进行5折交叉验证提升模型的抗拟合能力,建立优化的LightGBM(GSK-LightGBM)模型;然后基于AdaBoost算法训练多个GSK-LightGBM模型,加权组合得到AdaBoost-LightGBM增强集成模型,并采用网格搜索法结合5折交叉验证,实现了AdaBoost-LightGBM模型的参数优化,构建了GSK-AdaBoost-LightGBM模型;最后基于采集到的1953—2018年我国道路交通事故死亡人数相关样本数据训练模型,得到基于GSK-AdaBoost-LightGBM的交通事故死亡人数预测模型,并引入均方误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分误差3项评估指标评估了模型的预测性能,探究了模型的优化效果。结果表明:GSK-AdaBoost-LightGBM模型的3项评估指标值分别为0.014、0.00035和0.077,低于LightGBM模型、GSK-LightGBM模型和AdaBoost-LightGBM模型的评估指标值,说明该模型的预测精度较高,且明显优于LightGBM模型、GSK-LightGBM模型和AdaBoost-LightGBM模型。     

基于AHP-PSO的滇池流域生态补偿标准评估

通过AHP（层次分析法）在决策目标、影响指标及评估方案3层要素之间,选取湖泊环境、社会因素及经济因素3个维度的25个基层指标,建立了湖泊生态补偿标准评估指标体系。采用MATLAB软件编写了2个程序,分别用于求解初始评分矩阵、计算评估方案权重和辅助PSO（粒子群优化算法）修正指标体系中不满足一致性要求的初始评分矩阵、优化层次分析结果。经计算,生态系统服务价值理论与污染治理费用法的权重分别为38.16%、61.84%。选用生态系统服务价值理论与污染治理费用法两种评估方案,并结合市场价值法、成果参照法、影子工程法、Vollenweider模型及完全混合模型,通过实证研究检验评估标准的合理性。计算得出滇池流域的生态补偿标准总额为32.630 2亿元/a,流域内单位面积的生态补偿标准为5 207元/（a·hm²）。     

Biofuel Plantations on Forested Lands: Double Jeopardy for Biodiversity and Climate

Abstract: The growing demand for biofuels is promoting the expansion of a number of agricultural commodities, including oil palm (Elaeis guineensis). Oil‐palm plantations cover over 13 million ha, primarily in Southeast Asia, where they have directly or indirectly replaced tropical rainforest. We explored the impact of the spread of oil‐palm plantations on greenhouse gas emission and biodiversity. We assessed changes in carbon stocks with changing land use and compared this with the amount of fossil‐fuel carbon emission avoided through its replacement by biofuel carbon. We estimated it would take between 75 and 93 years for the carbon emissions saved through use of biofuel to compensate for the carbon lost through forest conversion, depending on how the forest was cleared. If the original habitat was peatland, carbon balance would take more than 600 years. Conversely, planting oil palms on degraded grassland would lead to a net removal of carbon within 10 years. These estimates have associated uncertainty, but their magnitude and relative proportions seem credible. We carried out a meta‐analysis of published faunal studies that compared forest with oil palm. We found that plantations supported species‐poor communities containing few forest species. Because no published data on flora were available, we present results from our sampling of plants in oil palm and forest plots in Indonesia. Although the species richness of pteridophytes was higher in plantations, they held few forest species. Trees, lianas, epiphytic orchids, and indigenous palms were wholly absent from oil‐palm plantations. The majority of individual plants and animals in oil‐palm plantations belonged to a small number of generalist species of low conservation concern. As countries strive to meet obligations to reduce carbon emissions under one international agreement (Kyoto Protocol), they may not only fail to meet their obligations under another (Convention on Biological Diversity) but may actually hasten global climate change. Reducing deforestation is likely to represent a more effective climate‐change mitigation strategy than converting forest for biofuel production, and it may help nations meet their international commitments to reduce biodiversity loss.     

基于粮食安全的耕地保护区域经济补偿标准测算

论文依据耕地保护的机会成本损失和基于区域粮食安全所折算的耕地赢余或赤字量,测算出耕地保护区域间的经济补偿标准,以矫正耕地保护的外部经济损失。在不同情景模式下的测算结果表明,粮食主产区为主要的补偿对象,黑龙江省所应补偿的金额最高,可获得543.24×10⁸元/年,而东部地区大多为耕地保护外部效益补偿金的主要支付者,上海市需要支付的补偿金最多,最低也应支付421.79×10⁸元/年。为了保障区域内粮食自给,一些地区维护粮食安全的成本会较高。在耕地保护过程中应该打破传统农业自给自足的封闭循环,遵循耕地保护机会成本的区域差异和区域土地利用的比较优势,统筹区域土地利用,使耕地保护成为实现农业区域专门化,取得规模经济效益和集聚效益的手段。     

山西省煤炭开采环境损失的经济核算

以环境经济学的经济外部性理论为依据,识别采煤过程中生态环境的外部不经济因素,应用环境价值评价法,对这些不经济因素进行量化和货币化,初步建立了省域煤炭开采环境污染和生态破坏经济损失核算体系.以2003年为基准年,核算了山西省煤炭开采环境污染和生态破坏的经济损失量.结果表明:2003年山西省煤炭开采环境污染与生态破坏造成的损失约为286.746 8×108元,折合每t煤损失63.79元.其中环境污染年损失61.979 4×108元,折合每t煤损失13.78元;生态破坏损失224.767 4×108元,折合每t煤损失50.00元.依据该核算结果,1978─2003年山西省累计采煤约65×108 t,所造成的环境损失约为4　100×108元.      

开发建设工程对生态环境资源影响的价值分析

在对开发建设工程的可行性分析应遵循可持续发展的原则基础上,本文尝试从补偿价值的角度利用价值分析的方法论证开发建设项目对环境影响的价值补偿问题.该方法全面地评价了工程建设总体价值与生态环境损失之间的关系,同时又强调了生态环境价值损失在总体评价中的中心地位.文中提出了生态环境可行性指标a作为判断建设项目可行性的科学依据.     

20世纪云南省人员震亡基本特征分析

系统收集、整理了云南省人员震亡资料;在对资料可用性分析的基础上,以资料较为丰富的20世纪作为研究重点,分析了云南省人员震亡的时空分布,探讨了震亡与震级、烈度关系,总结了20世纪云南省人员震亡4个方面的基本特征,可供认识云南省下一轮强震活跃期人员的震亡情况参考。