影响地震救灾效率的因素分析——以汶川8.0级地震和玉树7.1级地震为例

从地震报告死亡人数与震后时间关系的角度来定义救灾效率;研究了近20年发生在世界各地的震级大、伤亡严重、破坏性极大的34个地震。采用多元素分析法,探讨了地震救灾效率与死亡人数、地震震级、烈度、人均GDP、人口密度以及最大救灾效率发生的时刻等之间的关系。研究发现:死亡人数是影响救灾效率的最主要的因素,随着死亡人数的增加,救灾效率会越低;震级以及最大救灾效率发生时刻与救灾效率之间也存在显著的负相关;而震区的经济水平和人口密度对救灾效率的影响并不显著。比较了2008年汶川8.0级地震和2010年玉树7.1级地震,发现玉树地震的人均救灾效率较汶川地震有大幅度提升。     

Fiji's worst natural disaster: the 1931 hurricane and flood

At least 225 people in the Fiji Islands died as a result of the 1931 hurricane and flood, representing the largest loss of life from a natural disaster in Fiji's recent history. This paper explores the causes of disaster and the potential for recurrence. The disaster occurred because a rare event surprised hundreds of people—especially recently settled Indian farmers—occupying highly exposed floodplains in north‐west Viti Levu island. The likelihood of a flood disaster of such proportions occurring today has been diminished by changed settlement patterns and building materials; however, a trend towards re‐occupancy of floodplains, sometimes in fragile dwellings, is exposing new generations to flood risks. The contribution of this paper to the global hazards literature is set out in three sections: the ethnicity, gender and age of flood fatalities; the naturalness of disasters; and the merit of choice and constraint as explanations for patterns of vulnerability.     

灰色预测在平朔煤炭工业公司安全生产中的应用

利用灰色系统理论,建立了平朔煤炭工业公司事故伤亡率的GM(1,1)动态预测模型,并采用残差修正方法,提高了预测精度.对于该矿山有效地控制安全事故的发生,减少其造成的经济损失起到了重要的作用.     

Using cluster analysis to explore mortality patterns associated with tropical cyclones

Understanding the circumstances and conditions surrounding disaster‐attributed deaths may contribute to designing and implementing emergency preparedness and response programmes. This paper introduces a three‐step cluster analysis of multiple binary variables to investigate mortality patterns related to tropical cyclones. It is designed to overcome the difficulties of performing cluster analysis in a disaster database that is composed in part of nominal variables and is unavoidably incomplete owing to missing information. The first step in the process codes all variables as binary data in order to accommodate the nominal variables. The second step calculates Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for pairs of variables. And the third step subjects the correlation coefficients to cluster analysis. Data related to 1,575 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons) that struck Taiwan between 2000 and 2015 are used to illustrate the method. The results yield two distinct groups of variables that are worthy of further exploration.     

Injury severity related to overturn characteristics of tractors

Introduction

Early studies of injuries associated with overturns indicate that more fatalities occurred when a tractor overturned beyond 90° (continuous roll) relative to the impact plane. Recently, the principle of preventing continuous rolls has re-emerged for the protection of riding lawnmower operators.

Method

Related to tractors, a population-based study was conducted that compared the severity of fatal and nonfatal injuries between a 90° and continuous roll for tractors equipped with rollover protective structures (ROPS) and not equipped with a ROPS (non- ROPS). In 2002, the Kentucky Farm Tractor Overturn Survey was administered to an 8% random sample (6,063) of Kentucky farm operators. The farmers responded to questions that differentiated between the types of overturns and operator injury outcomes for ROPS-equipped and non-ROPS tractors during overturn events. Overturn characteristics were collected that included 90° to the side, beyond 90° to the side, and to the rear for both ROPS-equipped and non-ROPS tractors.

Results

Of the 541 overturns reported in this study, 535 (99%) of the respondents reported the most recent overturn characteristics of the tractor: 92 (17%) were ROPS-equipped and 443 (83%) were non-ROPS. For side overturns, 67% of the rolls occurred with ROPS-equipped tractors, and 54% occurred with non-ROPS tractors. The percentages of deaths related to rolls to the side for ROPS-equipped and non-ROPS tractors were, respectively, 1.6% and 3.7%. There was one (2%) deaths related to 90° rolls for ROPS-equipped tractors, whereas for continuous rolls there were 6.4% fatalities related to side overturns, 13% resulted in non-fatal injuries with an average of 1 day of hospitalization for ROPS-equipped tractors, and 39% resulted in non-fatal injuries with an average of 18 days of hospitalization for non-ROPS tractors. The results from this study indicated that a ROPS was more effective at stopping an overturn at 90° than no ROPS, with an associated reduction in the severity of injury in the event of a tractor overturn.     

NO参与亚砷酸钠诱导酵母细胞死亡的调控

以模式生物酵母细胞为材料,研究亚砷酸钠胁迫对细胞死亡率和胞内NO水平的影响,以探讨NO在砷诱导细胞死亡中的作用.结果显示,浓度为1～7mmol·L-1的亚砷酸钠可降低酵母细胞活性,诱导细胞死亡,随着处理浓度的升高和作用时间的延长,细胞死亡率增高;死细胞出现核固缩和核降解等凋亡特征;凋亡抑制剂Z-Asp-CH2-DCB(2"mol·L-1)与3mmol·L-1亚砷酸钠共同作用后,酵母细胞死亡率下降.在亚砷酸钠胁迫的过程中,酵母细胞内NO水平升高;一定浓度的NO清除剂c-PTIO(0.2mmol·L-1)或NO生成抑制剂NaN3(1mmol·L-1)均可降低亚砷酸钠引起的酵母细胞死亡率.结果表明,砷胁迫诱导的胞内NO升高是酵母细胞死亡的一个诱因,亚砷酸钠诱发的酵母细胞死亡中可能存在细胞凋亡过程.     

城市大气污染的人力资本损失研究

从人均GDP的角度提出了修正人力资本法,分析了大气污染引起的过早死亡人力资本损失,分析了平均损失寿命年、人均GDP增长率和社会贴现率对人力资本损失的影响.并以2003年为基准年,估算出主要城市大气污染的人均人力资本损失大致在12～90万元/人之间.为评估我国城市大气污染的健康经济损失提供参考.     

极端气温对城市人群死亡的影响评估

利用北京心肺血管疾病研究所提供的1994-2000年北京城近郊区的七个监测点的以25-74岁人群为监测对象的25余万居民中全死因死亡事件监测数据、同期北京观象台的逐日气温观测数据、月平均气候资料，对极端气温对城市人群死亡的影响进行分析，得出对城市人群死亡影响的极端气温阈值及其长序列的时间线形变率，采用最优子集回归方法建立预测评估模型，根据气候模式对未来气候变化的预测结果，对未来北京城市人群死亡的影响进行定量评估。     

Evaluation of a hospital-based injury surveillance system for monitoring road traffic deaths in Phuket,Thailand

Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate and injury surveillance (IS) system’s ability to monitor road traffic deaths and the coverage of road traffic injury and death surveillance in Phuket, Thailand.

Methods: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines on surveillance system evaluation were used to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate IS. Interviews with key stakeholders focused on IS’s usefulness, simplicity, flexibility, acceptability, and stability. Active case finding of 2014 road traffic deaths in all paper and electronic hospital record systems was used to assess system sensitivity, positive predictive value, and data quality. Electronic data matching software was used to determine the implications of combining IS data with other provincial-level data sources (e.g., death certificates, electronic vehicle insurance claim system).

Results: Evaluation results indicated that IS was useful, flexible, acceptable, and stable, with a high positive predictive value (99%). Simplicity was limited due to the burden of collecting data on all injuries and use of paper-based data collection forms. Sensitivity was low, with IS only identifying 55% of hospital road traffic death cases identified during active case finding; however, IS cases were representative of cases identified. Data accuracy and completeness varied across data fields. Combining IS with active case finding, death certificates, and the electronic vehicle insurance claim system more than doubled the number of road traffic death cases identified in Phuket.

Conclusion: An efficient and comprehensive road traffic injury and death surveillance system is critical for monitoring Phuket’s road traffic burden. The hospital-based IS system is a useful system for monitoring road traffic deaths and assessing risk behaviors. However, the complexity of data collection and limited coverage hinders the ability of IS to fully represent road traffic deaths in Phuket Province. Combining data sources could improve coverage and should be considered.     

Memento Mori: The development and validation of the Death Reflection Scale

Despite its potential for advancing organizational behavior (OB) research, the topic of death awareness has been vastly understudied. Moreover, research on death awareness has predominantly focused on the anxiety‐provoking aspect of death‐related cognitions, thus overlooking the positive aspect of death awareness, death reflection. This gap is exacerbated by the lack of a valid research instrument to measure death reflection. To address this issue, we offer a systematic conceptualization of death reflection, develop the Death Reflection Scale, and assess its psychometric properties across four studies. Further, using a sample of 268 firefighters, we examine whether death reflection buffers the detrimental impact of mortality cues at work on employee well‐being and safety performance. Results provide strong support for the psychometric properties of the Death Reflection Scale. Further, moderation analysis indicates death reflection weakens the negative effect of mortality cues on firefighters' safety performance. Overall, these findings suggest the newly developed Death Reflection Scale will prove useful in future research on death‐related cognitions.