《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的环境健康效果评估

为了定量评估《大气十条》实施带来的环境健康效益,本文首先依据PM_(2.5)浓度和人口数据,分析2013～2017年全国人口加权浓度的变化,其次利用Ben MAP模型对全国338个地级及以上城市2013年PM_(2.5)基准情景和2017年PM_(2.5)控制情景进行分析,定量分析全国31个省(市)及338个地级及以上城市减少过早死亡人数.结果表明,由于PM_(2.5)浓度大幅下降,2013～2017年全国PM_(2.5)人口加权浓度呈逐年下降趋势;北京、天津、河北等京津冀及周边地区减少过早死亡人数最多. 2017年全国280个城市避免过早死亡人数有所增加,58个城市避免过早死亡人数有所下降.以WHO过渡期第1阶段目标值(PM_(2.5)年均浓度为35μg·m-3)作为控制情景,估算2013年全国过早死亡人数约为101 293人,2017年约为41 080人,《大气十条》的实施大约避免60 213人过早死亡.依据支付意愿法调查结果,估算增加的健康效益约为549. 7亿元.     

Programmed cell death induced by modified clay in controlling Prorocentrum donghaiense bloom

Modified clay (MC), an effective material used for the emergency elimination of algal blooms, can rapidly reduce the biomass of harmful algal blooms (HABs) via flocculation. After that, MC can still control bloom population through indirect effects such as oxidative stress, which was initially proposed to be related to programmed cell death (PCD) at molecular level. To further study the MC induced cell death in residual bloom organisms, especially identifying PCD process, we studied the physiological state of the residual Prorocentrum donghaiense. The experimental results showed that flocculation changed the physiological state of the residual cells, as evidenced by growth inhibition and increased reactive oxygen species production. Moreover, this research provides biochemical and ultrastructural evidence showing that MC induces PCD in P. donghaiense. Nuclear changes were observed, and increased caspase-like activity, externalization of phosphatidylserine and DNA fragmentation were detected in MC-treated groups and quantified. And the mitochondrial apoptosis pathway was activated in both MC-treated groups. Besides, the features of MC-induced PCD in a unicellular organism were summarized and its concentration dependent manner was proved. All our preliminary results elucidate the mechanism through which MC can further control HABs by inducing PCD and suggest a promising application of PCD in bloom control.     

基于GSK-AdaBoost-LightGBM的交通事故死亡人数预测研究

交通事故预测研究有助于降低交通事故发生的概率。为提高交通事故预测模型的精度,首先应用网格搜索法获得LightGBM模型的最优超参数,并进行5折交叉验证提升模型的抗拟合能力,建立优化的LightGBM(GSK-LightGBM)模型;然后基于AdaBoost算法训练多个GSK-LightGBM模型,加权组合得到AdaBoost-LightGBM增强集成模型,并采用网格搜索法结合5折交叉验证,实现了AdaBoost-LightGBM模型的参数优化,构建了GSK-AdaBoost-LightGBM模型;最后基于采集到的1953—2018年我国道路交通事故死亡人数相关样本数据训练模型,得到基于GSK-AdaBoost-LightGBM的交通事故死亡人数预测模型,并引入均方误差、平均绝对误差和平均绝对百分误差3项评估指标评估了模型的预测性能,探究了模型的优化效果。结果表明:GSK-AdaBoost-LightGBM模型的3项评估指标值分别为0.014、0.00035和0.077,低于LightGBM模型、GSK-LightGBM模型和AdaBoost-LightGBM模型的评估指标值,说明该模型的预测精度较高,且明显优于LightGBM模型、GSK-LightGBM模型和AdaBoost-LightGBM模型。     

Is The Ca + K + Mg/Al Ratio in the Soil Solution a Predictive Tool for Estimating Forest Damage?

The ratio between (Ca +K +Mg) and Al in nutrientsolution has been suggested as a predictive tool forestimating tree growth disturbance. However, the ratiois unspecific in the sense that it is based on severalelements which are all essential for plant growth;each of these may be growth-limiting. Furthermore,aluminium retards growth at higher concentrations. Itis therefore difficult to give causal and objectivebiological explanations for possible growthdisturbances. The importance of the proportion ofbase-cations to N, at a fixed base-cation/Al ratio, isevaluated with regard to growth of Picea abies.The uptake of elements was found to be selective;nutrients were taken up while most Al remained insolution. Biomass partitioning to the roots increasedafter aluminium addition with low proportions of basecations to nitrogen. We conclude that the low growthrates depend on nutrient limitation in thesetreatments. Low growth rates in the high proportionexperiments may be explained by high internal Alconcentrations. The results strongly suggest thatgrowth rate is not correlated with the ratio in therooting medium and question the validity of usingratios as predictive tools for estimating forestdamage. We suggest that growth limitation of Picea abies in the field may depend on lowproportions of base cations to nitrate. It istherefore important to know the nutritional status ofthe plant material in relation to the growth potentialand environmental limitation to be able to predict andestimate forest damage.     

Accounting for rate instability and spatial patterns in the boundary analysis of cancer mortality maps

Boundary analysis of cancer maps may highlight areas where causative exposures change through geographic space, the presence of local populations with distinct cancer incidences, or the impact of different cancer control methods. Too often, such analysis ignores the spatial pattern of incidence or mortality rates and overlooks the fact that rates computed from sparsely populated geographic entities can be very unreliable. This paper proposes a new methodology that accounts for the uncertainty and spatial correlation of rate data in the detection of significant edges between adjacent entities or polygons. Poisson kriging is first used to estimate the risk value and the associated standard error within each polygon, accounting for the population size and the risk semivariogram computed from raw rates. The boundary statistic is then defined as half the absolute difference between kriged risks. Its reference distribution, under the null hypothesis of no boundary, is derived through the generation of multiple realizations of the spatial distribution of cancer risk values. This paper presents three types of neutral models generated using methods of increasing complexity: the common random shuffle of estimated risk values, a spatial re-ordering of these risks, or p-field simulation that accounts for the population size within each polygon. The approach is illustrated using age-adjusted pancreatic cancer mortality rates for white females in 295 US counties of the Northeast (1970–1994). Simulation studies demonstrate that Poisson kriging yields more accurate estimates of the cancer risk and how its value changes between polygons (i.e., boundary statistic), relatively to the use of raw rates or local empirical Bayes smoother. When used in conjunction with spatial neutral models generated by p-field simulation, the boundary analysis based on Poisson kriging estimates minimizes the proportion of type I errors (i.e., edges wrongly declared significant) while the frequency of these errors is predicted well by the p-value of the statistical test.

杭州市区机动车污染物排放特征及分担率

选取杭州市区绕城高速、快速路、主干道和民用支路4种典型道路进行工况测试,建立了2010年机动车CO、HC、NOx和PM10排放清单,获得了分车型、燃料类型、排放标准以及道路类型的机动车污染物排放分担率.结果表明,杭州市机动车的污染物排放分担率差别显著,乘用车、出租车和公交车是CO和HC排放的主要来源,重型货车和公交车是NOx和PM10排放的主要来源,且乘用车的NOx排放分担率也较大;柴油车的NOx和PM10的排放分担率远大于其保有量的贡献率,是其排放的主要来源,汽油车是CO和HC排放的主要来源;占保有量30%的国0和国I车辆,对CO、HC、NOx和PM10排放分担率分别为67%、69%、58%和82%;主干道是机动车CO、HC和NOx排放的主要来源,其排放分担率分别为66%、65%和64%,民用支路是PM10排放的主要来源,分担率为55%.     

聚糖原菌富集实验及其内源过程探究

细胞衰减是微生物内源过程的一个重要组成部分,可分为由细胞死亡引起的数量衰减和由细胞活性降低引起的活性衰减两部分.通过挥发性脂肪酸（VFA）吸收速率(VFAUR)测定、荧光原位杂交技术（FISH）以及LIVE/DEAD细胞染色技术,研究了富集聚糖原菌（GAOs）在序批式反应器（SBR）系统中好氧环境下的衰减特征.结果表明,当T=30℃、进料中m(COD)∶m(P)=100时,SBR系统中GAOs富集比例达94%.测定和计算表明,SBR富集系统中GAOs衰减速率和死亡速率分别为0.132 d^-1和0.034 d^-1,其数量衰减和活性衰减占其细胞总衰减比例分别为26%和74%.可见,GAOs数量衰减只占其细胞总衰减中很小一部分,而绝大部分衰减由活性衰减所引起.     

内蒙古癌死亡率与土壤环境中化学元素的关系

利用中国癌死亡率与土壤环境中化学元素的相关性研究成果，研究了内蒙古癌死亡率与土壤环境中化学元素：As、Cd、Co、Cu、Hg、Mn、Ni、Pb、Se、V、Li、Na、K、Rb、Cs、Mg、Ca、Sr、Ba、B、Al、Ga、In、Tl、Sc、Y、La、Ce、Pr、Nd、Tb、Dy、Ho、Er、Tm、Yb、Lu、Th、U、Sn、Ti、Zr、Hf、Sb、Bi、Ta、Te、Mo、W、Br、I、Fe等52个元素含量的关系。     

Inorganic nitrogen removal of toilet wastewater with an airlift external circulation membrane bioreactor

Removal of inorganic nitrogen (inorganic-N) from toilet wastewater, using a pilot-scale airlift external circulation membrane bioreactor (AEC-MBR) was studied. The results showed that the use of AEC-MBR with limited addition of alkaline reagents and volumetric loading rates of inorganic-N of 0.19-0.40 kg inorganic-N/(m3·d) helped achieve the desired nitrification and denitrification. Furthermore, the effects of pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) on inorganic-N removal were examined. Under the condition of MLSS at 1.56-2.35 g/L, BOD5/ammonia nitrogen (NH/-N) at 1.0, pH at 7.0-7.5, and DO at 1.0-2.0 mg/L, the removal efficiencies of NH4 -N and inorganic-N were 91.5% and 70.0%, respectively, in the AEC-MBR. The cost of addition of alkaline reagent was approximately 0.5-1.5 RMB yuan/m3, and the energy consumption was approximately 0.72 kWh/m3 at the flux of 8 L/(m2·h).     

镉引起蚕豆(Vicia faba)叶片DNA损伤和细胞凋亡研究

以蚕豆为研究对象,采用碱性、半碱性和中性彗星实验方法研究Cd对植物DNA的损伤,同时还采用DAPI染色法从细胞形态学入手研究Cd诱导的蚕豆叶片的细胞凋亡.用3种彗星实验研究Cd处理蚕豆叶片DNA损伤,结果表明Cd能够引起蚕豆叶片DNA损伤,但是不同Cd浓度引起DNA损伤的种类不同:5mg·L^-1Cd处理主要引起单链DNA损伤和碱性不稳定位点的形成;10mg·L^-1Cd处理时开始检测到DNA双链断裂;20mg·L^-1Cd处理下,各种类型的DNA损伤均明显增加,且DNA双链断裂尤其明显.DAPI染色法通过细胞形态学变化来检测蚕豆叶片细胞凋亡的结果表明,蚕豆叶片细胞在Cd处理下发生凋亡的过程与DNA损伤过程有很大的相关性.结果表明,Cd是一种基因毒性物质,同时证明Cd引起的DNA损伤是引起细胞发生凋亡的机制之一.