The aim of the study is to describe the inter-province differences in traffic accidents and mortality on roads of Turkey.
Method
Two different risk indicators were used to evaluate the road safety performance of the provinces in Turkey. These indicators are the ratios between the number of persons killed in road traffic accidents (1) and the number of accidents (2) (nominators) and their exposure to traffic risk (denominator). Population and the number of registered motor vehicles in the provinces were used as denominators individually. Spatial analyses were performed to the mean annual rate of deaths and to the number of fatal accidents that were calculated for the period of 2001-2006. Empirical Bayes smoothing was used to remove background noise from the raw death and accident rates because of the sparsely populated provinces and small number of accident and death rates of provinces. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed to show whether the provinces with high rates of deaths-accidents show clustering or are located closer by chance. The spatial distribution of provinces with high rates of deaths and accidents was nonrandom and detected as clustered with significance of P < 0.05 with spatial autocorrelation analyses.
Results
Regions with high concentration of fatal accidents and deaths were located in the provinces that contain the roads connecting the Istanbul, Ankara, and Antalya provinces. Accident and death rates were also modeled with some independent variables such as number of motor vehicles, length of roads, and so forth using geographically weighted regression analysis with forward step-wise elimination. The level of statistical significance was taken as P < 0.05. Large differences were found between the rates of deaths and accidents according to denominators in the provinces. The geographically weighted regression analyses did significantly better predictions for both accident rates and death rates than did ordinary least regressions, as indicated by adjusted R2 values. Geographically weighted regression provided values of 0.89-0.99 adjusted R2 for death and accident rates, compared with 0.88-0.95, respectively, by ordinary least regressions.
Impact on industry
Geographically weighted regression has the potential to reveal local patterns in the spatial distribution of rates, which would be ignored by the ordinary least regression approach. The application of spatial analysis and modeling of accident statistics and death rates at provincial level in Turkey will help to identification of provinces with outstandingly high accident and death rates. This could help more efficient road safety management in Turkey. 相似文献
Invasive species can dramatically alter ecosystems, but eradication is difficult, and suppression is expensive once they are established. Uncertainties in the potential for expansion and impacts by an invader can lead to delayed and inadequate suppression, allowing for establishment. Metapopulation viability models can aid in planning strategies to improve responses to invaders and lessen invasive species’ impacts, which may be particularly important under climate change. We used a spatially explicit metapopulation viability model to explore suppression strategies for ecologically damaging invasive brown trout (Salmo trutta), established in the Colorado River and a tributary in Grand Canyon National Park. Our goals were to estimate the effectiveness of strategies targeting different life stages and subpopulations within a metapopulation; quantify the effectiveness of a rapid response to a new invasion relative to delaying action until establishment; and estimate whether future hydrology and temperature regimes related to climate change and reservoir management affect metapopulation viability and alter the optimal management response. Our models included scenarios targeting different life stages with spatially varying intensities of electrofishing, redd destruction, incentivized angler harvest, piscicides, and a weir. Quasi-extinction (QE) was obtainable only with metapopulation-wide suppression targeting multiple life stages. Brown trout population growth rates were most sensitive to changes in age 0 and large adult mortality. The duration of suppression needed to reach QE for a large established subpopulation was 12 years compared with 4 with a rapid response to a new invasion. Isolated subpopulations were vulnerable to suppression; however, connected tributary subpopulations enhanced metapopulation persistence by serving as climate refuges. Water shortages driving changes in reservoir storage and subsequent warming would cause brown trout declines, but metapopulation QE was achieved only through refocusing and increasing suppression. Our modeling approach improves understanding of invasive brown trout metapopulation dynamics, which could lead to more focused and effective invasive species suppression strategies and, ultimately, maintenance of populations of endemic fishes. 相似文献
AbstractWe investigated the anaerobic degradation of tetracycline antibiotics (tetracycline [TC], oxytetracycline [OTC] and chlortetracycline [CTC]) in swine, cattle, and poultry manures. The manures were anaerobically digested inside polyvinyl chloride batch reactors for 64?days at room temperature. The degradation rate constants and half-lives of the parent tetracyclines were determined following first-order kinetics. For CTC the fastest degradation rate was observed in swine manure (k?=?0.016?±?0.001 d?1; half-life = 42.8?days), while the slowest degradation rate was observed in poultry litter (k?=?0.0043?±?0.001 d?1; half-life = 161?days). The half-lives of OTC ranged between 88.9 (cattle manure) and 99.0?days (poultry litter), while TC persisted the longest of the tetracycline antibiotics studied with half-lives ranging from 92.4?days (cattle manure) to 330?days (swine manure). In general, the tetracyclines were found to degrade faster in cattle manure, which had the lowest concentrations of organic matter and metals as compared to swine and poultry manures. Our results demonstrate that tetracycline antibiotics persist in the animal manure after anaerobic digestion, which can potentially lead to emergence and persistence of antibiotic resistant bacteria in the environment when anaerobic digestion byproducts are land applied for crop production. 相似文献
In situ methods are needed to evaluate the effectiveness of chemical amendments at enhancing reductive dechlorination rates in groundwater that is contaminated with the priority pollutant, trichloroethene (TCE). In this communication, a method that utilizes single-well, “push–pull” tests to quantify the effects of chemical amendments on in situ reductive dechlorination rates is presented and demonstrated. Five push–pull tests were conducted in each of five monitoring wells located in a TCE-contaminated aquifer at the site of a former chemical manufacturing facility. Rates for the reductive dechlorination of the fluorinated TCE-surrogate, trichlorofluoroethene (TCFE), were measured before (test 1) and after (test 5) three successive additions (tests 2–4) of fumarate. Fumarate was selected to stimulate the growth and activity of indigenous microorganisms with the metabolic capability to reduce TCFE and TCE. In three wells, first-order rate constants for the reductive dechlorination of TCFE increased by 8.2–92 times following fumarate additions. In two wells, reductive dechlorination of TCFE was observed after fumarate additions but not before. The transformation behavior of fumarate was also monitored following each fumarate addition. Correlations between the reductive dechlorination of TCFE and the reduction of fumarate to succinate were observed, indicating that these reactions were supported by similar biogeochemical conditions at this site. 相似文献
Objective: Road safety is an important public health issue worldwide. However, few studies have analyzed the association between criminalizing drunk driving and years of life lost (YLL) due to road traffic deaths (RTDs). Our study can provide useful information about this policy.
Methods: We used interrupted time-series analysis to find the changes in monthly YLL and RTD before and after law enforcement began using RTD data from 2008 to 2014 in Tianjin.
Results: After adjustment for seasonality, months, holidays, and the number of people in each district, criminalizing drunk driving was followed by a 11.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1–21.1%) reduction in risk of RTDs and a corresponding 778.1-year (95% CI, 200–1,355.1) reduction in monthly YLL. The reduction in YLL was especially significant among males, those aged 16–64 years old, and suburban residents.
Conclusions: This study highlights that the law can lead to a reduction in YLL due to RTDs in Tianjin, China. Large immediate public health benefits resulted from the new road traffic law in China. YLL provides a complementary measure for examining the effect of criminalization on drunk driving RTDs. 相似文献