价格对中国煤矿事故的影响分析

针对我国目前煤炭产业严峻的安全形势，本文采用、统计的方法，分析了煤炭价格和产量与煤矿安全生产事故之间的相关关系，验证煤炭价格与煤矿安全生产事故的发生存在协整关系，而且煤价是煤矿伤亡事故的致因，并进一步做回归分析，并尝试从价格的角度揭示煤矿安全生产事故发生的规律。     

煤矿百万吨死亡率影响因素的灰色关联分析

本文以国有煤矿企业现状调查结果为依据,选取采矿工人收入、采掘工人高中以上文化程度比例、原煤生产效率和采煤机械化程度影响因素建立灰色关联模型,运用灰色关联分析法定量分析了各因素对煤矿百万吨死亡率的影响,其结果可为煤矿安全管理工作提供必要的依据.     

Introducing a common taxonomy to support learning from failure in conservation

Although some sectors have made significant progress in learning from failure, there is currently limited consensus on how a similar transition could best be achieved in conservation and what is required to facilitate this. One of the key enabling conditions for other sectors is a widely accepted and standardized classification system for identifying and analyzing root causes of failure. We devised a comprehensive taxonomy of root causes of failure affecting conservation projects. To develop this, we solicited examples of real-life conservation efforts that were deemed to have failed in some way, identified their underlying root causes of failure, and used these to develop a generic, 3-tier taxonomy of the ways in which projects fail, at the top of which are 6 overarching cause categories that are further divided into midlevel cause categories and specific root causes. We tested the taxonomy by asking conservation practitioners to use it to classify the causes of failure for conservation efforts they had been involved in. No significant gaps or redundancies were identified during this testing phase. We then analyzed the frequency that particular root causes were encountered by projects within this test sample, which suggested that some root causes were more likely to be encountered than others and that a small number of root causes were more likely to be encountered by projects implementing particular types of conservation action. Our taxonomy could be used to improve identification, analysis, and subsequent learning from failed conservation efforts, address some of the barriers that currently limit the ability of conservation practitioners to learn from failure, and contribute to establishing an effective culture of learning from failure within conservation.     

灰色预测在平朔煤炭工业公司安全生产中的应用

利用灰色系统理论,建立了平朔煤炭工业公司事故伤亡率的GM(1,1)动态预测模型,并采用残差修正方法,提高了预测精度.对于该矿山有效地控制安全事故的发生,减少其造成的经济损失起到了重要的作用.     

临街高层建筑道路交通噪声预测及其修正

选取临街高层建筑作为影响点,对现场噪声进行了实测,同时用美国FHWA道路交通噪声预测模式进行了噪声预测,实测值与预测值对比的结果表明,道路交通噪声随高度增加先由小变大再变小,而预测值呈现单一变化。原因为交通噪声垂向分布会受到建筑立面对噪声的反射及散射、车辆车身及路面材质、绿化带植被对噪声的吸收等多方面影响。在给出修正预测模式后,重新对影响点进行预测,修正后预测值与实测值误差可控制在3dB(A)以内,很好地反映出道路交通噪声在垂直方向上的变化趋势。     

Using cluster analysis to explore mortality patterns associated with tropical cyclones

Understanding the circumstances and conditions surrounding disaster‐attributed deaths may contribute to designing and implementing emergency preparedness and response programmes. This paper introduces a three‐step cluster analysis of multiple binary variables to investigate mortality patterns related to tropical cyclones. It is designed to overcome the difficulties of performing cluster analysis in a disaster database that is composed in part of nominal variables and is unavoidably incomplete owing to missing information. The first step in the process codes all variables as binary data in order to accommodate the nominal variables. The second step calculates Spearman's rank correlation coefficients for pairs of variables. And the third step subjects the correlation coefficients to cluster analysis. Data related to 1,575 deaths attributed to tropical cyclones (also known as typhoons) that struck Taiwan between 2000 and 2015 are used to illustrate the method. The results yield two distinct groups of variables that are worthy of further exploration.     

NO参与亚砷酸钠诱导酵母细胞死亡的调控

以模式生物酵母细胞为材料,研究亚砷酸钠胁迫对细胞死亡率和胞内NO水平的影响,以探讨NO在砷诱导细胞死亡中的作用.结果显示,浓度为1～7mmol·L-1的亚砷酸钠可降低酵母细胞活性,诱导细胞死亡,随着处理浓度的升高和作用时间的延长,细胞死亡率增高;死细胞出现核固缩和核降解等凋亡特征;凋亡抑制剂Z-Asp-CH2-DCB(2"mol·L-1)与3mmol·L-1亚砷酸钠共同作用后,酵母细胞死亡率下降.在亚砷酸钠胁迫的过程中,酵母细胞内NO水平升高;一定浓度的NO清除剂c-PTIO(0.2mmol·L-1)或NO生成抑制剂NaN3(1mmol·L-1)均可降低亚砷酸钠引起的酵母细胞死亡率.结果表明,砷胁迫诱导的胞内NO升高是酵母细胞死亡的一个诱因,亚砷酸钠诱发的酵母细胞死亡中可能存在细胞凋亡过程.     

我国70年环境立法：回顾、反思与展望

70年的中国环境立法,总体上分为三个阶段,即起步阶段、发展阶段和进入生态文明新阶段。起步阶段是从1949年10月新中国成立到1978年底党的十一届三中全会召开之前,发展阶段是从1979年到2012年党的十八大召开之前,进入生态文明新阶段是从2012年11月党的十八大召开至今。历史表明,在毛泽东主席和周恩来总理等老一辈党和国家领导人的关心和有关部门的共同努力下,我国的环境立法在新中国成立后已经提到工作日程,并取得一定成绩。党的十八大以来我国的环境法制建设取得历史性进步。在充分肯定成就的基础上,通过反思,发现我国环境立法依然存在立法质量不高、立法体制机制不够合理、实施效果不理想等问题。为此,应当根据习近平生态文明思想和党的十九大、十九届四中全会精神,明确新时代环境立法的指导思想和原则,加快环境法律的立改废释工作,切实提高环境立法质量,补齐生态保护立法的短板,积极推进相关法律的生态化,加强配套环境法规和规章的制定,加快健全完善生态环境保护法律体系,实现环境治理体系与治理能力的现代化。     

基于欧洲航天局“哨兵-2A”卫星的太湖蓝藻遥感监测

欧洲航天局(ESA)2015年6月23日成功发射"哨兵-2A"卫星,该卫星搭载的多光谱成像仪(MSI)在可见光(VIS)至短波红外(SWIR)波长区间配置了多种光谱波段/地面分辨率组合,可以获取大范围、较短重访周期、较高空间分辨率(10 m)的遥感影像。以太湖2016年6月13日MSI数据为例,在完成大气校正的基础上,分析了太湖典型地物类型光谱特征,采用归一化植被指数(NDVI)结合叶绿素反射峰强度(ρchl)构建的综合阈值法对贡湖湾的蓝藻水华信息进行了提取实验。结果表明:"哨兵-2A"卫星MSI影像质量清晰,可精细地反映植被、蓝藻、水体等典型地物类型的光谱特征;ρchl指数对中-高蓝藻聚集区与水生植被、轻度蓝藻聚集区与混合水体具有较好的分离能力;利用综合阈值法提取贡湖湾中-高蓝藻聚集区面积为60.37 km2,主要分布在贡湖北部沿岸、湖心和南部沿岸。"藻-水"混悬体面积为79.49 km2,贡湖湾东部蓝藻水华相对较轻。     

气体爆轰波在管道中绕射和反射的实验研究

本文实验研究了氢/氧/氩气体爆轰波在矩形管中900尖角绕射时的传播特性,利用烟迹技术记录了实验现象,运用爆轰波波阵面结构理论和激波绕射及反射理论对实验结果作了分析。结果表明平面气体爆轰波在900尖角绕射时由于横波失去碰撞以及稀疏波作用,稳定三波结构在绕射区发生变化,在反射激波作用下形成热点产生子爆炸,重新在垂直分支管中形成稳定爆轰波。