BP网络马尔可夫模型的水质预测研究——基于灰色关联分析

根据汾河水质的实际情况,应用BP网络马尔可夫模型对水质进行预测。采用拉依达准则剔除样本集异常数据,结合水质污染的实际情况,以COD为参考序列,应用灰色关联度对常规指标进行分析,确定BP网络的输入节点。在BP网络预测结果的基础上采用马尔可夫链对残差序列进行修正。经过关联度分析,确定氨氮、挥发酚、水温、BOD5及COD自身作为BP网络的输入节点,解决了多变量复杂系统建模过程中BP网络输入节点无法自动寻优的问题,使得BP网络的预测结果更加符合实际。对预测误差较大的样本采用马尔可夫修正误差残值,使得相对误差从-15.43%改善到了-15%,修正值更接近于实测值。BP网络马尔可夫模型,结合了BP网络和马尔可夫的优点,提高了预测的精度。     

应对重大灾害的轴辐式应急物资储备网络体系

分析了应对重大灾害的应急物资需求的特点和我国现有应急物资储备体系的现状和不足,基于轴辐网络优势,构建了轴辐式应急物资储备网络体系,分析了应急轴辐网络储备体系运行的四个阶段,同时提出了建立轴辐式应急物资储备网络相关具体措施建议,实现中央和地方应急储备库物资、各职能部门储备物资、军队物资、各社会团体储备物资、国内外捐助物资以及企业物资生产能力储备等专业应急物资储备和社会应急物资储备的有效整合,以有助于在较短时间内积聚大量应急物资,扩大应急物资的服务辐射范围,提高应急物资调度效率,以有效应对各类重大灾害。     

A vaccination game based on public health actions and personal decisions

Susceptible-infective-removed (SIR) models are commonly used for representing the spread of contagious diseases. A SIR model can be described in terms of a probabilistic cellular automaton (PCA), where each individual (corresponding to a cell of the PCA lattice) is connected to others by a random network favoring local contacts. Here, this framework is employed for investigating the consequences of applying vaccine against the propagation of a contagious infection, by considering vaccination as a game, in the sense of game theory. In this game, the players are the government and the susceptible newborns. In order to maximize their own payoffs, the government attempts to reduce the costs for combating the epidemic, and the newborns may be vaccinated only when infective individuals are found in their neighborhoods and/or the government promotes an immunization program. As a consequence of these strategies supported by cost-benefit analysis and perceived risk, numerical simulations show that the disease is not fully eliminated and the government implements quasi-periodic vaccination campaigns.     

基于合作博弈论的感潮河网区污染物排放总量削减分配模型研究

在给定污染物削减目标的情况下,如何确定各排污区域的分配比例一直是污染物总量分配技术的核心问题,博弈论是解决这一问题的有效尝试。采用合作博弈论方法,以感潮河网区各排污区域为研究对象,充分考虑各区域的污染治理成本、排污策略与环境质量的相互影响,建立了在给定污染物总削减比例条件下各区域环境合作的博弈模型,计算了各种可能联盟的特征函数值,利用Shapley值法进行合作收益的公平分配。结合珠江三角洲西江-石岐河河网区3个区域的环境合作案例说明削减合作的可行性,在总削减比例为15%的约束下,3区域合作削减比例是20.77%、12.82%和12.99%,与合作前相比,3个区域合作后环境成本分别减少了11.83%、2.13%和2%。     

平原河网地区农村生活污染入河机制

以太滆运河流域前黄镇和雪堰镇为研究区,设计农村生活非点源污染调查问卷,采用随机抽样的方法,调查了39个行政村中85个自然村的农村生活污染情况。通过对问卷的统计分析得到了厕所使用类型的比例、化粪池中上清液和固体残渣的去向以及生活垃圾处置等信息。在对农村生活污染进行分类的基础上,估算出该地区农村生活污染入河系数为:CODCr,6.6%～13.3%;TN,18.1%～18.6%;TP,8.2%～12.5%。     

水平荷载情况下深海吸力锚稳定性研究

深海吸力锚基础的极限承载能力是海洋工程结构设计中的一个关键问题,达到极限平衡状态时,吸力锚的极限承载能力与其失稳模式密切相关.本文基于Coulomb摩擦对原理,给出了一种精确模拟吸力锚承载能力的有限元模型.在该数值模型基础上,利用通用有限元分析软件ABAQUS,研究了系泊点位置、长径比对吸力锚承载能力的影响,并给出了深...     

热带气旋影响下的电网应急案例框架构建研究

在我国电网防灾抗灾体系中,因风灾等自然灾害影响具有持续性,造成应急准备阶段对灾害演变过程认知不足而引发响应阶段抢修故障。热带气旋是导致电网破坏严重的自然灾害之一,近些年发生率高于以往同期。风灾是阶段变化的,情景又是动态演变的。针对热带气旋的影响,考虑其不同影响阶段构建应急案例,可在应急响应行动过程,有效准确的面对风灾特性而带来的抢修故障。提出电网风灾的案例框架构建方法,并结合风灾的特点进行框架分类,可有效应对灾害的不确定性从而增加案例可用度。同时对风灾案例库建设、抗台演习演练与实际应对三种目的下的案例进行属性约简,依热带气旋演变,将案例个体拆分化采取逐步多次检索生成可行预案,从而提高响应效率。     

Multi-level coordination of climate change adaptation: by national hierarchical steering or by regional network governance?

The institutional structure and public service delivery apparatus required to meet the future effects of climate change already exist in Norway. However, there are huge challenges in coordinating these institutions at different authority levels for climate change adaptation purposes. Based upon a broad case study, this article presents how local actors consider the multi-level coordination of different levels of government and policy sectors to function today, which are the mechanisms that are used and what are the coordination challenges that are identified. Based upon the challenges revealed, this article discusses how best can the government-level institutions be organised for better goal attainment. We argue here that the elected regional level in Norway – the counties – has a huge potential to act as a multi-level coordination actor.     

Fracture Characterization Using Borehole Radar: Numerical Modeling

Forward modeling of borehole radar data for a series of synthetic discrete-fracture network (DFN) models provides a conceptual framework for interpreting experimental field data at fractured rock sites. A finite-difference time-domain (FDTD) radar wave propagation model was developed for this purpose. Synthetic examples demonstrate the utility of single-hole reflection-mode and cross-hole transmission-mode borehole radar for (1) identification of fracture location and orientation, and (2) identification of fracture pore-fluid properties, which might change as a result of tracer tests or flooding exercises in support of resource development or site remediation. A two-dimensional, synthetic DFN was generated statistically based on hypothetical distributions of fracture length, orientation, aperture, permeability, and inter-connectivity. The DFN includes a zone of permeable fractures embedded within a network of lower-permeability fractures and a low-permeability rock matrix. We modeled the unconnected and non-permeable fractures as being filled with freshwater. To simulate tracer experiments, contaminant releases, or engineered-remediation processes, we considered alternately the inter-connected, permeable fractures to be filled with freshwater air, or saline water (tracer). Synthetic radar data sets for both single-hole reflection and cross-hole transmission modes were generated. The features in synthetic radargrams were then examined and compared to the DFN model to evaluate the likelihood of identifying fracture location, orientation, and pore fluid in field situations. This comparison demonstrates that (1) the replacement of freshwater with saline water in permeable fractures generally increases the amplitude of reflections from permeable, connected fractures; and (2) in general, radar reflection-mode data contains more information about fracture properties than transmission-mode data.     

RBF神经网络在土壤重金属污染评价中的应用

运用MATLAB软件的K均值聚类算法结合神经网络工具箱,通过建立RBF神经网络对郑汴路圃田—杏花营段路旁土壤进行了评价。结果表明,土壤重金属积累峰值污染峰值多出现在距路基50m范围以内,并随着距路基距离的增加,污染程度逐渐下降。风力因素和邻近铁路对路段两侧土壤重金属污染影响较大,且公路运营时间越早,对两侧土壤污染越严重。杏花营断面土壤质量以Ⅱ级为主,北侧断面土壤质量多为Ⅲ级。圃田断面各样点综合评价结果均为Ⅱ级,整体质量优于杏花营断面。RBF神经网络评价方法具有计算速度快,评价结果客观等优点。