基于历史记录的赤潮灾害危险性区划方法的构建与应用

利用福建省近岸海域1959—2018年的赤潮历史记录数据资料,在地理信息系统(Geographical Information System,GIS)平台下采用核密度估计函数(kernel density estimation)对赤潮历史记录数据中的赤潮发生频次、赤潮发生持续时间、赤潮面积和赤潮藻类毒性等参数进行了空间...     

建筑安全事故人为因素分类研究

为系统研究导致建筑安全事故的人为因素及对策,首先,在文献分析和专家访谈的基础上结合建筑行业特征提出人为因素分类分析系统（HFACS）框架中应增加社会环境层,在修正框架层次和人为因素的基础上构建建筑安全事故人为因素分类分析系统（C-HFACS）框架;其次,对150起建筑安全事故进行案例分析,探讨C-HFACS框架中对事故影响显著的人为因素及其内在关联性,验证了构建C-HFACS框架的合理性;最后,得出政府监管等九个人为因素对事故和下层人为因素影响显著,并从政府、企业、现场和个体四个维度提出独立第三方“飞行式”巡检等有针对性的对策,以期为建筑安全事故分析和管理提供新的方法和工具。     

城市自然灾害应急管理中社会参与的评价研究 ——以太原市为例*

随着我国经济建设与社会建设的较快发展,城市自然灾害应急管理研究得到了越来越多的关注。目前城市自然灾害应急管理的研究多着眼于政府层面,尚未对社会力量在城市自然灾害应急管理中的作用进行详细论证。为研究社会力量在城市自然灾害应急活动中的现状,在坚持政府主导的原则下分析了社会参与在城市自然灾害应急管理中的重要作用,提出了社会力量参与城市自然灾害应急管理的评价指标体系,并进一步构建了基于G1方法的城市应急管理中社会参与的评价模型,对社会参与进行定量化分析。在此基础上,以太原市为例进行了实证研究,根据评价结果了解到太原市社会参与的状况,并找到社会参与做的比较好和存在不足的地方,并提出一些改善意见以提高城市自然灾害应急管理中的社会参与水平。     

基于MODIS时间序列及物候特征的农作物分类

论文以2012年6月至2014年6月期间的MOD09Q1及2013年四五月的MOD09A1为数据源,合成归一化植被指数(NDVI)和归一化水体指数(NDWI),利用TIMESAT软件对NDVI时间序列数据应用分段高斯函数拟合方法重构NDVI时序曲线,并获取7个物候特征(Phenology,以下简称PH,包括生长季始期,生长季末期,生长季长度,NDVI振幅,NDVI左导数,NDVI右导数,生长季期间的NDVI积分).结合Landsat 8 OLI遥感影像,中国第二次土地调查数据和实地采样样本数据,根据2013年多种地物平滑后的NDVI曲线特征,将年NDVI最大值低于0.5的水体和建设用地掩膜去除.为了获取研究区农作物的最优分类方法,采用分层分类:首先对平滑后的46个NDVI时序数据进行支持向量机(SVM)分类,得到农用地等分类信息;其次利用平滑后的46个NDVI波段,7个物候参数及6期归一化水体指数相互组合,对农用地进行支持向量机分类提取3种农作物的分布信息.经不同波段组合分类对比可知,分类总体精度及Kappa系数的关系为:NDVI+NDWI>NDVI+PH+NDWI>PH+NDWI>NDVI+PH>NDVI>PH.研究结果表明,遥感数据波段的增加不一定带来较高的分类精度;论文中归一化水体指数有效地提高了水稻的分类精度.此外,辅以物候特征对农作物分类也具有一定的可行性.     

Build back better: implementation in Victorian bushfire reconstruction

The ‘build back better’ (BBB) concept signals an opportunity to decrease the vulnerability of communities to future disasters during post‐disaster reconstruction and recovery. The 2009 Victorian bushfires in Australia serve as a case study for this assessment of the application of core BBB principles and their outcomes. The results show that several BBB measures were successfully implemented in Victoria and are relevant for any post‐disaster reconstruction effort. The BBB initiatives taken in Victoria include: land‐use planning determined by hazard risk‐based zoning; enforcement of structural design improvements; facilitated permit procedures; regular consultations with stakeholders; and programmes conducted for social and economic recovery. Lessons from the Victorian recovery urge the avoidance of construction in high‐risk zones; fairness and representativeness in community consultations; adequate support for economic recovery; the advance establishment of recovery frameworks; and empowerment of local councils.     

Moderating effects of empathic concern and personal distress on the emotional reactions of disaster volunteers

This study examines stress and mood outcomes in community volunteers who undertook one week's worth of post‐disaster relief work in L'Aquila, Italy, which had been hit by an earthquake four months earlier. The study team obtained pre‐ and post‐relief work data from 130 volunteers involved in activities such as preparing food for the displaced, cleaning the camps and distributing clean linen. The Perceived Stress Scale, the State‐Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Profile of Mood States were administered at the start and at the end of the aid activities. Psychopathological symptoms and empathy were assessed in the beginning, using the Symptom Checklist 90 Revised and the Interpersonal Reactivity Index, respectively. The results show that, following the assistance work, volunteers displayed decreases in perceived stress, general distress, anxiety and anger, as well as increases in positive emotions. The empathy facets empathic concern and personal distress showed different patterns in modulating the post‐disaster relief work adaptation for some of the mood outcomes.     

山水风景地区控规指标体系构建及指标赋值方法的探析——以千岛湖为例

为解决现行的传统城市地区控制性详细规划（简称控规,后同）对山水风景地区控制不力的现象,以千岛湖地区为例,对山水风景地区控规进行了探讨,对控规指标体系的内容和赋值方法进行了有针对性的扩展和改进。借助GIS等技术手段,对地方性特色元素进行分析,并以此为基础,建立了以”分区控制和分类引导”为核心的控制指标体系。将单一地块进一步划分为亚区域进行分别控制,同时通过图示的方式对不同的建设类型进行引导。根据山水风景地区的建设特征,进一步引入、明确了地表改变率、建筑绝对高度、建筑投影面积等指标的赋值方法,增加了城市设计导引等内容,丰富、强化了山水风景地区控规的内容和可操作性。     

食品应急储备配置比例及方法研究

为提升食品应急储备的科学性、合理性,在总结分析食品应急储备的种类、形式与影响因素的基础上,以我国官方发布的食物与营养发展目标为依据,确定了八大类应急储备食品的基础配置比例,并提出了食品大类配置比例的修正方法,随后综合考虑生产周期、保质期、易储性和储备成本,给出实物储备和产能储备的配置方法,最后提出了单类食品实物储备模式下单品的配置原则和方法,并以单价修正为例对单品选择性修正方法进行了说明,对不断提高突发事件应急保障工作的水平,提升应对突发事件的保障能力,实现受灾群众更科学合理的饮食结构有重要意义。     

国际标准产业分类体系的农、林、牧、渔业分类演化及启示

国际标准产业分类体系是目前国际上最有影响和权威的产业分类体系。深入了解国际标准产业分类体系中农、林、牧、渔业分类演化,对正确收集、处理和测算我国农、林、牧、渔业的指标以及国际间数据比较至关重要。论文首先详细地剖析国际标准产业分类体系的农、林、牧、渔业的分类演化,然后依据国际标准产业分类体系的最新变化,结合我国农、林、牧、渔业现状,为我国国民经济行业分类中农、林、牧、渔业的修改和调整提供建议。     

Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: a macro framework

The measurement of vulnerability—defined here as the asymmetric response of disaster occurrences to hazardous events—signifies a key step towards effective disaster risk reduction and the promotion of a culture of disaster resilience. One of the reasons for not being able to do the same in a wider context is related to conceptual, definitional, and operational issues. This paper presents an operationally feasible framework for conducting this task and measures revealed macro vulnerability as a function of disaster risk and hazard probability. The probabilities of hazard and its perceived disaster risk were obtained from past data and from probability distributions. In this paper, the corresponding analytical framework is constructed using the case study of floods in Assam, India. The proposed indicator will help policymakers to draw on available macro‐level data to identify the regions that are vulnerable to disasters, where micro‐level disaster vulnerability assessments could be performed in greater detail.