可持续发展研究的3个关键课题与中国转型发展

从数量扩张的增长模式转向质量提升的发展模式,是中国未来30年转型发展的核心问题.本文介绍了20世纪90年代以来可持续发展在3个关键课题上的研究进展.在经济增长与社会富祉的关系上,指出经济增长对于社会富祉的贡献存在着门槛,跨过这个门槛经济增长对福利贡献的边际效用开始递减;在经济增长与资源环境的关系上,指出经济增长没有导致资源环境消耗的倒U型曲线,在自然资本存在限制的情况下无限的经济增长是不可能的;在政府支出与民生发展的关系上,指出公共支出增大并不必然导致社会福利的提高,而公共支出的结构与方式对民生发展却是极其重要的.在对每个问题分析事实依据、原因解释、政策意义的基础上,针对中国转型发展提出了一些具有长期意义的理论思考与政策思考.     

Seasonal variation of organochlorine contaminants in bonito (Sarda sarda L. 1758) and anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus L. 1758) in Black Sea region, Turkey

The concentrations of indicator polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine insecticides were determined in bonito (Sardasarda L. 1758) and anchovy (Engraulisencrasicolus L. 1758) from the Black Sea, Turkey. Concentrations of total indicator PCBs ranged between <1-17.0 in bonito, and <1-17.5 ng/g fresh weight in anchovy, and total of 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis-chlorophenyl-ethane and its metabolites’ (DDTs) concentrations ranged between 13.4-26.3, and 2.96-19.0 ng/g fresh weight in bonito and anchovy respectively. PCB 52, p,p′-DDE and endosulfan (α + β) were found dominant in both of the fish species. Except endosulfan, and some DDT metabolites, none of the studied organochlorine pesticides was detected in the fish samples. Concentrations of PCBs in anchovy were found higher than those in bonito, whereas DDT and endosulfan concentrations were found similar in both of the fish species. All of the fish samples had residue concentrations below the maximum residue limits (MRL) recommended by FAO/WHO Codex Alimentarius Commission.     

Incidence of thyroid disease following exposure to polybrominated biphenyls and polychlorinated biphenyls, Michigan, 1974-2006

Thyroid hormones, which influence body metabolism and development, could be affected by persistent organic pollutants. We sought to examine the relationship between polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and thyroid disease. We employed incidence density sampling to perform a nested case control analysis of the Michigan Long-Term PBB Cohort. Cohort members (n = 3333) were exposed to PBBs through contaminated cattle feed in 1973-1974 and to PCBs through daily life. Those with detectable serum PBB and PCB concentrations at enrollment were categorized into tertiles of PBB and PCB exposure. Case-patients were cohort members answering “Yes” to “Has a healthcare provider ever told you that you had a thyroid problem?” during follow-up interviews; control-patients were cohort members answering “No”. We used odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to compare odds of thyroid disease by PBB and PCB exposure and by various risk factors. Total cumulative thyroid disease incidence after 33 years was 13.9% among women and 2.6% among men. After adjusting for body mass index, we found no statistically significant differences in odds of any type of thyroid disease among women or men with elevated PBB or PCB exposure. Compared to control-patients, women with thyroid disease had increased odds of being overweight/obese (OR = 2.82, 95% CI: 1.94-4.11) and developing infertility (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.08-2.69), diabetes (OR = 1.61, 95% CI: 1.04-2.51), or arthritis (OR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.18-2.50) during follow-up. Additional research should explore potential associations between PBBs/PCBs and thyroid disease among children exposed in utero.     

可燃气体(液体蒸气)爆炸测试装置的改进研究

以可燃气体(液体蒸气)爆炸测试装置改进为主线,综述国内外各种测试装置的优缺点。对不同装置、测试方法以及测试原理进行比较分析,研讨可燃气体爆炸的特点和爆炸参数测试方法以及对现有测试装置的改进方案。即对20 L爆炸测试装置的配气系统和控制系统进行了合理改进,使引射混合配气与循环混合配气相结合,使可燃气体(液体蒸气)与空气混合更均匀,控制操作更简便,还指出了今后研究工作中应注意的一些问题和研究重点。     

基于双剪屈服条件的输油管道腐蚀剩余强度可靠性研究

提出基于双剪屈服塑性极限条件的管道可靠性爆破压力可靠度模型,在基于剩余强度可靠性理论基础上,着重分析随机参数,即腐蚀深度、腐蚀长度和运行压力的分布情况,通过经典可靠性计算方法、JC法将非正态分布转化成标准正态分布,从而建立起基于双剪屈服条件的管道腐蚀可靠性计算模型。通过提取现场实验数据进行验算,其结果表明:双剪屈服强度理论算得的爆破压力更接近实验结果,该方法降低API579的保守性,大大提高了可靠性的计算精度。     

锂离子电池热解气体爆炸极限测定及其危险性分析

为定量研究锂离子电池热失控的危险性,利用锂离子电池在滥用条件下释放气体的种类及体积分数,计算锂离子电池热解气体爆炸极限并研究锂电池荷电状态对热解气体爆炸极限的影响。结果表明:在一定热失控条件下锂离子电池荷电状态为100%时其热解气爆炸下限为6.22%,上限为38.4%,在相同热失控条件下,锂离子电池热解气体的爆炸极限范围随着荷电状态的升高而增大,锂电池的荷电状态对热解气体的爆炸上限影响较大而对爆炸下限影响较小。在相似条件下,锂离子电池热解气体的爆炸极限范围比普通烃类气体大,一旦锂电池发生热失控会对锂离子电池运输造成潜在威胁。     

基于上限定理的抗滑群桩设计理论研究

针对抗滑群桩设计理论方面存在的问题,即荷载传递及滑坡推力分配的不确定性,基于极限分析的上限定理,给出了一种抗滑群桩的设计方法,即人为增大第一排抗滑桩的桩间距,并按极限土压力公式设计,作用在第二排抗滑桩上的荷载则按照上限定理给出。根据上述思想,并结合滑坡能量安全系数的定义和多块体体系速度场计算方法,提出了抗滑群桩的一种设计理论。     

基于JC法尾矿坝稳定性可靠度研究

论述了可靠度理论在尾矿坝稳定性评价中可有效弥补定值法(安全系数法)存在的不足。文中选用JC法作为可靠度分析方法,结合实例对尾矿坝进行稳定性分析,分别求出了尾矿坝在正常和洪水工况下运行时的可靠度指标。并通过与定值法(安全系数法)比较,发现可靠度指标对坝体材料物理力学参数变异性的敏感度高于安全系数,因而得出可靠度方法可以更加全面、客观的反映出尾矿坝稳定性的真实状态。     

高突危险水体上煤层开采下限及带压开采分区研究

确定开采下限,对高突危险水体上煤层的安全开采具有十分重要的意义。本文基于肥城矿区地质条件,用FLAC3D软件,对开采煤层下伏岩层移动变形规律进行了深入研究,对煤层底板三带范围进行了初步确定;同时,从不同方面对煤层底板开采破坏深度进行了理论计算。根据突水系数、导水带深度、导升带高度和经验数据,确定出正常条件下带压开采的下限(-720m)以及安全措施条件下(底板预注浆处理等)的带压开采下限(-850m)。依据开采下限,对带压开采条件进行了分析,初步形成了高突危险水体上煤层带压开采的分区分类,划分了"开采相对安全区(安全开采区、次安全开采区、条件安全开采区)、深部突水危险区、构造突水危险区",为确定安全开采技术与工艺奠定了理论基础。     

基于二阶矩法的钢筋混凝土连续梁可靠度分析

根据结构可靠性理论,运用应力-强度干涉模型,考虑随机参数服从正态分布情况下的影响,构建连续梁在强度失效模式下的可靠性模型,应用二阶矩法通过数值分析计算结构的可靠指标,得出了结构的可靠度。为使所建立的模型符合钢筋混凝土结构的具体受力特点,荷载效应计算中考虑了钢筋混凝土结构的内力重分布,承载能力计算中参考了《混凝土结构设计规范》(GB50010-2002)给出的近似计算公式,得到了多维非线性的极限状态方程。通过实例对模型和可靠度方法进行了验证,计算分析表明,本文所建立的可靠性模型揭示了钢筋混凝土连续梁在各种随机因素作用下强度失效的规律,为钢筋混凝土连续梁的可靠性分析提供了依据。此外,本文提供的构件可靠度计算思路也可为其他各类钢筋混凝土构件的可靠度分析提供参考。