区域化变量理论在历史洪涝灾害空间格局重建中的应用──以长江流域1736-1911年洪涝灾害为例

通过构造一个例子,简介了区域化变量理论的基本原理、计算过程及其在洪涝灾害空间格局重建中的优点。依据区域化变量理论,以长江流域1736～1911年洪涝灾害为实例,重建了长江流域历史时期洪涝灾害的基本空间格局．     

Short-term wind speed forecasting based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical mode decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm

ABSTRACT

Wind speed forecasting plays an important role in power grid dispatching management. This article proposes a short-term wind speed forecasting method based on random forest model combining ensemble empirical modal decomposition and improved harmony search algorithm. First, the initial wind speed data set is decomposed into several ensemble empirical mode functions by EEMD, then feature extraction of each sub-modal IMF is performed using fast Fourier transform to solve the cycle of each sub-modal IMF. Next, combining the high-performance parameter optimization ability of the improved harmony search algorithm, two optimal parameters of random forest model, number of decision trees, and number of split features are determined. Finally, the random forest model is used to forecast the processing results of each submodal IMF. The proposed model is applied to the simulation analysis of historical wind data of Chaoyang District, Liaoning Province from April 27, 2015 to May 22, 2015. To illustrate the suitability and superiority of the EEMD-RF-IHS model, three types of models are used for comparison: single models including ANN, SVM, RF; EMD combination models including EMD-ANN, EMD-SVM, EMD-RF; EEMD combination models including EEMD-ANN, EEMD-SVM, EEMD-RF. The analysis results of evaluation indicators show that the proposed model can effectively forecast short-term wind data with high stability and precision, providing a reference for forecasting application in other industry fields.     

Multi-objective-based optimal transmission switching and demand response for managing congestion in hybrid power systems

ABSTRACT

This paper proposes a novel congestion management (CM) approach by using the optimal transmission switching (OTS) and demand response (DR) for a system with conventional thermal generators and renewable energy sources (RESs). In this paper, wind and solar PV units are considered as the RESs. The stochastic behavior of wind and solar PV powers are modeled by using the appropriate probability density functions (PDFs). The proposed CM methodology simultaneously optimizes the generation dispatch, demand response, and also the network topology of the power system. The OTS identifies the branches that should be taken out of service by significantly reducing the operating cost of the system while respecting the system security. Here, the total operating cost minimization/social welfare maximization and system losses minimization are considered as the objectives to be optimized. The proposed CM problem is solved using the multi-objective Jaya algorithm and it is used to determine a set of Pareto-optimal solutions. The Jaya algorithm is simple and it does not have any algorithmic-specific parameters to be tuned. This aspect reduces the designer’s effort in tuning the parameters to arrive at the optimum objective function value. A fuzzy logic-based approach is used to identify the best compromise solution. The effectiveness of the proposed CM approach is examined on modified IEEE 30 and practical Indian 75 bus test systems. The obtained simulation results are analyzed and they show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.     

Energy consumption estimation model for dual-motor electric vehicles based on multiple linear regression

ABSTRACT

The drive range of electric vehicle (EV) is one of the major limitations that impedes its universalism. A great deal of research has been devoted to drive range improvement of EV, an accurate and efficiency energy consumption estimation plays a crucial role in these researches. However, the majority of EV’s energy consumption estimation models are based on single motor EV, these models are not suitable for dual-motor EVs, which are composed of more complex transmission mechanisms and multiple operating modes. Thus, an energy consumption estimation model for dual-motor EV is proposed to estimate battery power. This article focuses on studying the operating modes and system efficiency in each operating mode. The limitation of working area of each mode ensures the vehicle dynamic performance, then PSO algorithm is adopted to optimize the torque (speed) distribution between two motors to improve the system efficiency in the coupled driving mode. Finally, the energy consumption estimation model is established by multiple linear regression (MLR). The result shows that the proposed model has a high precision in energy consumption estimation of dual-motor EV.     

Risk-based optimal operation of hybrid power system using multiobjective optimization

ABSTRACT

This paper solves an optimal generation scheduling problem of hybrid power system considering the risk factor due to uncertain/intermittent nature of renewable energy resources (RERs) and electric vehicles (EVs). The hybrid power system considered in this work includes thermal generating units, RERs such as wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) units, battery energy storage systems (BESSs) and electric vehicles (EVs). Here, the two objective functions are formulated, i.e., minimization of operating cost and system risk, to develop an optimum scheduling strategy of hybrid power system. The objective of proposed approach is to minimize operating cost and system risk levels simultaneously. The operating cost minimization objective consists of costs due to thermal generators, wind farms, solar PV units, EVs, BESSs, and adjustment cost due to uncertainties in RERs and EVs. In this work, Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) is considered as the risk index, and it is used to quantify the risk due to intermittent nature of RERs and EVs. The main contribution of this paper lies in its ability to determine the optimal generation schedules by optimizing operating cost and risk. These two objectives are solved by using a multiobjective-based nondominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) algorithm, and it is used to develop a Pareto optimal front. A best-compromised solution is obtained by using fuzzy min-max approach. The proposed approach has been implemented on modified IEEE 30 bus and practical Indian 75 bus test systems. The obtained results show the best-compromised solution between operating cost and system risk level, and the suitability of CVaR for the management of risk associated with the uncertainties due to RERs and EVs.     

对我国水资源可持续利用的一点思考

按照“认识——规划——建设”的思路,分析了我国水资源开发利用中所面临的主要问题和挑战,提出水资源可持续开发利用的策略和对策,特别提出分质供水和中水回用相结合的供水方式,作出了各地区重点建设项目的构想。     

近断层强震速度脉冲效应及连续梁桥减隔震特性分析

应用非线性时程分析的方法 ,对于减、隔震连续桥梁在近场地震作用下的有效性和响应特性 ,作了深入的研究。通过有代表性的脉冲型近场强震记录时程分析 ,提出了用速度脉冲峰值及其周期之积来表示速度脉冲能量的方法 ,计算表明近场地震速度脉冲波能近似表征地震动破坏能力的大小 ,它和桥梁结构承受的地震响应大体成正比例关系。铅芯橡胶隔震支座在近场地震作用下仍然适用 ,但对于个别脉冲型强震记录效果不够明显 ,支座参数有必要进行优化。     

Demographic Analysis of Tree Colonization in a20-Year-Old Right-of-Way

Past tree colonization dynamics of a powerline-right-of-way (ROW) corridor in the Haut-Saint-Laurent region of Quebec was studied based on the present age distribution of its tree populations. This colonization study spans 20 years, from 1977 (ROW clearance) to 1996. The sampled quadrats were classified into six vegetation types. Tree colonization dynamics were interpreted in each type, and three distinct patterns were identified. (1) Communities adapted to acidic conditions were heavily colonized by Acer rubrum, at least for the last 12 years. (2) Communities adapted to mesic or to hydric conditions were more intensely colonized in the period 1985-1987 than in the following 9 years; this past success in tree colonization may have been caused by herbicide treatments, which could have facilitated tree establishment by damaging the herbaceous and shrub vegetation. (3) Cattail, vine-raspberry, and reed-dominated communities contained few tree individuals, with almost all trees establishing between 1979 and 1990; those three vegetation types appear as the most resistant to tree invasion in the ROW studied. This study supports the need for an integrated approach in ROW vegetation management, in which the selection of vegetation treatment methods would depend on the tree colonization dynamics in each vegetation type. Minimizing disturbances inflicted on ROW herbaceous and shrub covers should be the central strategy because disturbances jeopardize natural resistance to future tree invasion, except in communities adapted to acidic conditions where the existing vegetation does not prevent invasion by A. rubrum. Many trees are surviving the successive cutting operations by producing new sprouts each time, particularly in communities adapted to mesic and hydric conditions. In these cases, mechanical cutting should be replaced by a one-time stump-killing operation, to avoid repeated and unsuccessful treatments of the same individuals over time.     

我国粮食生产布局变化特点及其成因分析

建国以来,我国粮食生产呈波浪型上了四个台阶,粮食总产量分别达到２亿ｔ、３亿ｔ、４亿ｔ、ｔｗｎ ｔ。总的来说,粮食产量呈现超伏涨落但缓慢上升的趋势。过去５０年,我国的粮食生产及布局发生了巨大的变化。首先,粮食增长逐渐由以前的单产和总产并重转变为以提高单为主。其次,粮食结构也发生了变化,很长一段时间,我国的粮食增长主要信赖于水稻增产,８０年代以后,水稻在粮食生产中的比重迅速下降,而小麦和玉米所占比重帽     

一维粘性泥石流运动的格子Boltzmann模拟

利用格子Boltzmann方法,对一维粘性泥石流的运动进行了定量化研究和数值模拟,为进一步研究泥石流的运动机制奠定了基础。在模拟一维粘性泥石流运动时,采用了含外力项的格子Boltzmann模型,通过对外力因子、平衡态分布函数的构造,使得宏观统计特性刻画了泥石流运动的非线性特征,成功模拟了泥石流的运动过程,获得了泥石流水深、流速两大要素的时空变化规律,为研究泥石流运动过程提供了一种新手段。