防灾工程动态投资决策方法初探

本文提出了防灾工程的抗力、灾损度和灾害的灾度、灾害势以及动态决策准则等概念,基于现代控制理论,初步建立了防灾工程动态投资决策的一般方法,并对其进行了理论分析和研究。这里的决策包括防灾工程的初始投资(或设防水平)决策及其防灾规划期(或寿命期)内的防灾减灾维护投资(或维护水平)决策.文中还给出了算例,对上述方法进行了应用。算例结果表明,本文提出的防灾工程动态投资决策方法具有比较显著的经济效益。     

成都市可持续发展水平空间分布特征

本文通过对成都市 8县 4市 3区的可持续发展静态指数计算 ,定量地表达了成都市各区县目前可持续发展状况的对比关系 ,分析造成这种格局的原因并提出相应对策     

MULTIPLE CRITERIA ANALYSIS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT IN THE NITRA BASIN1

ABSTRACT: This paper presents the implementation of one element of a decision support system (DSS) for regional water quality management, applied to the Nitra River Basin in Slovakia. A model-based, aspiration-led methodology for multicriteria decision support has been used for the study. Several reusable, modular software tools have been developed and implemented: a problem-specific generator to produce the core part of the mathematical programming model, tools for the generation and interactive modification of multicriteria problems, and a solver for the resulting mixed-integer optimization problem. Provided in the paper are the following: a complete formulation of the mathematical model (including the imbedded water quality model), a summary of the aspiration-reservation-led multiple criteria optimization approach applied to decision support, and an overview of results that illustrate the applied approach and provide some interesting insights to the case study.     

Seismological aspects of the Japan Sea earthquake of 1983

The Japan Sea earthquake of 1983 took place at the eastern margin of the Japan Sea, which is a marginal sea situated west of the island are of Japan and the Japan trench in the Pacific Ocean. Its magnitude of 7.7 is the largest among earthquakes which have been known to occur in the seismic belt along the Japan Sea coast of Northeast Honshu, Japan. Since the seismic activity in the belt is not so high, the earthquake is especially important in the geophysical interpretation of tectonic process in the region. The aftershock distribution and the focal mechanism reveals that the earthquake is a thrust fault on a plane dipping eastwards by about 30°. The waveform analysis shows that the earthquake can be regarded as a double shock to a first approximation. Interestingly, there was a 10-second intermission between the two events. These are preliminary results, and more detailed studies are under development.     

甘肃境内国家重点保护鸟类鱼类、两栖类的分布规律

对甘肃省境内国家重点保护鸟类的分布规律进行了分析.结果表明,该省分布有国家重点保护鸟类59种(含亚种),隶属7目11科,其中,国家1级保护鸟类12种,2级保护鸟类47种;重点保护鱼类1种;两栖类2种.国家重点保护鸟类以古北界为主,占61.0%,东洋界鸟类仅分布于陇中黄土高原省和陇南山地省占11.9%.陇中黄土高原省、祁连山地省、陇南山地省分布有国家重点保护鸟类57 5%～61.0%,是甘肃境内国家重点保护鸟类的集中分布区.祁连山、白龙江、洮河林区是甘肃省鸟类重点保护区域,祁连山、白水江、安西3个保护区保护了甘肃省境内保护鸟类的86.4%.国家重点保护鱼类仅有秦岭细鳞鲑(Brachymystaxlenok)1种,为古北界成分,国家2级保护动物,分布于中部黄土高原省的渭河南岸较大支流中.国家重点保护两栖类有2种,均为古北界成分,国家2级保护动物,分布于陇南山地省.     

臭氧活性炭工艺中卤乙酸生成潜能与相对分子质量分布关系的研究

通过臭氧生物活性炭和微曝气生物活性炭(O₃/BAC和micro-aeration/BAC)2套工艺研究其对不同相对分子质量有机物去除特点和不同相对分子量有机物生成的卤乙酸及其去除特性.结果表明,O₃/BAC工艺对相对分子质量区间>30×10³的有机物去除率超过90%.O₃/BAC与micro-aeration/BAC出水中,UV₂₅₄值表示相对分子质量<103的有机物超过50%,相对分子量区间在10×10³～30×10³的有机物占20%～30%;在O₃/BAC和微曝气/BAC工艺出水中,以相对分子质量<10³的有机物生成的卤乙酸最多,生成DCAA、TCAA、DBAA分别为97.00、38.55、2.10μg/L和104.00、42.75和2.92μg/L;采用各处理单元不同分子量有机物与氯反应生成的DCAA、TCAA、DBAA和THAAs与相对应的UV₂₅₄值进行线性拟合,相关系数分别为0.827、0.851 3、0.815 7和0.878.UV₂₅₄与臭氧生物活性炭处理工艺出水中的卤乙酸生成潜能具有较好的线性关系.     

Can aquatic distribution of human pharmaceuticals be related to pharmacological data?

The recognition of pharmaceuticals as significant environmental contaminants has only been a recent phenomenon. Therefore there is a paucity of data relating to the fate and effects of pharmaceuticals once they enter an aquatic receiving system. The amount of work that needs to be done in terms of risk assessment for pharmaceuticals required by regulatory agencies is substantial. This paper has determined the environmental partitioning coefficient (K_d) of 13 diverse human pharmaceuticals in three model systems of differing combinations of solid phases and solutions. The K_d values were then compared with distribution values of the pharmaceuticals in the human body determined from pharmacological studies. This was done to assess the functional relationship between K_d and distribution values in the human body (V_D). K_d values ranged from 3 to 2450 L kg⁻¹. Regression coefficients ranged from r² = 0.62–0.72, indicating that V_D values are a useful indicator for the K_d values of the tested pharmaceuticals within the batch sorption systems. The relationship between K_d and V_D should therefore be further explored to determine whether this relationship can be applied to a broader range of pharmaceuticals in more diverse environmental systems. Exploiting available human pharmacological data in such a way would be of great benefit in prioritising human pharmaceuticals as environmental contaminants in the risk assessment process.     

A multi-objective optimization framework for surfactant-enhanced remediation of DNAPL contaminations

The occurrence of Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL) contaminations in the subsurface is a threat for drinkwater resources in the western world. Surfactant-Enhanced Aquifer Remediation (SEAR) is widely considered as one of the most promising techniques to remediate DNAPL contaminations in-situ, be it with considerable additional costs compared to classical pump-and-treat remediations. A cost-effective design of the remediation set-up is therefore essential. In this work, a pilot SEAR test is executed at a DNAPL contaminated site in Belgium in order to collect data for the calibration of a multi-phase multi-component model. The calibrated model is used to assess a series of scenario-analyses for the full-scale remediation of the site. The remediation variables that were varied were the injection and extraction rate, the injection and extraction duration, and the surfactant injection concentrations. A constrained multi-objective optimization of the model was applied to obtain a Pareto set of optimal remediation strategies with different weights for the two objectives of the remediation: (i) the maximal removal of DNAPL and (ii) a total minimal cost. These Pareto curves can help decision makers to select an optimal remediation strategy in terms of cost and remediation efficiency. The Pareto front shows a considerable trade-off between the total remediation cost and the removed DNAPL mass.     

A robust approach for iterative contaminant source location and release history recovery

Contamination source identification is a crucial step in environmental remediation. The exact contaminant source locations and release histories are often unknown due to lack of records and therefore must be identified through inversion. Coupled source location and release history identification is a complex nonlinear optimization problem. Existing strategies for contaminant source identification have important practical limitations. In many studies, analytical solutions for point sources are used; the problem is often formulated and solved via nonlinear optimization; and model uncertainty is seldom considered. In practice, model uncertainty can be significant because of the uncertainty in model structure and parameters, and the error in numerical solutions. An inaccurate model can lead to erroneous inversion of contaminant sources. In this work, a constrained robust least squares (CRLS) estimator is combined with a branch-and-bound global optimization solver for iteratively identifying source release histories and source locations. CRLS is used for source release history recovery and the global optimization solver is used for location search. CRLS is a robust estimator that was developed to incorporate directly a modeler's prior knowledge of model uncertainty and measurement error. The robustness of CRLS is essential for systems that are ill-conditioned. Because of this decoupling, the total solution time can be reduced significantly. Our numerical experiments show that the combination of CRLS with the global optimization solver achieved better performance than the combination of a non-robust estimator, i.e., the nonnegative least squares (NNLS) method, with the same solver.