中国并网光伏发电系统的经济性与环境效益

太阳能已成为世界各国公认的最为理想的替代能源,其应用规模不断扩大.但光伏发电系统高昂的成本,成为限制其发展的关键因素.本文应用净现值和单因素敏感性分析工具,建立了光伏发电成本的计算模型,以我国34个省会城市作为研究案例,对井网光伏发电系统进行了经济性和环境效益分析.结果显示:在目前政府初始投资补贴一半的情况下,并网光伏发电成本介于0.83-2.29元/kWh之间.即便在光照资源最丰富的地区,并网光伏发电仍无法与常规能源发电相竞争.在影响并网光伏系统发电成本的诸多影响因素中,政府初始投资补贴额度、水平面太阳能辐射量和投资密度的敏感性最强;CDM资金的注入对光伏发电成本的降低具有积极的作用.激励政策方面,出台合适的、稳定的上网电价对启动国内光伏市场最为有效.光伏发电系统的环境效益是指光伏发电的减排环境效益扣除系统发电环境成本的余额.经计算并网光伏发电具有显著的环境效益,其环境效益为0.0165元/kWh.本研究对于国家制定光伏发电的激励政策和成本分摊机制具有重要的参考价值.     

Using the land transformation model to forecast vacant land

Growing or shrinking cities can experience increases in vacant land. As urban populations and boundaries fluctuate, holes can open in once tight urban areas. Many cities chase growth-oriented approaches to dealing with vacancies. It is critical to understand land-use alteration to accurately predict transformations of physical change in order to make better informed decisions about this phenomenon. This research utilizes the land transformation model (LTM), an artificial neural networking mechanism in Geographic Information Systems, to forecast vacant land. Variable influence on vacant land prediction and accuracy of the LTM is assessed by comparing input factors and patterns, using time-series data from 1990 to 2010 in Fort Worth, Texas, USA. Results indicate that the LTM can be useful in simulating vacant land-use changes but more precise mechanisms are necessary to increase accuracy. This will allow for more proactive decisions to better regulate the process of urban decline and regeneration.     

Trade‐Offs between Cattle Production and Bird Conservation in an Agricultural Frontier of the Gran Chaco of Argentina

Intensification of food production in tropical landscapes in the absence of land‐use planning can pose a major threat to biological diversity. Decisions on whether to spatially integrate or segregate lands for production and conservation depend in part on the functional relations between biological diversity and agricultural productivity. We measured diversity, density, and species composition of birds along a gradient of production intensification on an agricultural frontier of the Argentine Chaco, where dry tropical forests are cleared for cattle production. Bird species diversity in intact forests was higher than in any type of cattle‐production system. Bird species richness decreased nonlinearly as cattle yield increased. Intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems, those in which forest understory is selectively cleared to grow pastures of non‐native plants beneath the tree canopy, produced 80% of the mean cattle yield obtained in pastures on cleared areas and were occupied by 70–90% of the number of bird species present in the nearest forest fragments. Densities of >50% of bird species were significantly lower in open pastures than in silvopastoral systems. Therefore, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems may have the greatest potential to sustain cattle yield and conserve a large percentage of bird species. However, compared with low‐intensity production systems, in which forest structure and extent were intact, intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems supported significantly fewer forest‐restricted bird species and fewer frugivorous birds. These data suggest that the integration of production and conservation through intermediate‐intensity silvopastoral systems combined with the protection of forest fragments may be required to maintain cattle yield, bird diversity, and conservation of forest‐restricted species in this agricultural frontier. Compromisos entre la Producción de Ganado y la Conservación de Aves en una Frontera Agrícola del Gran Chaco de Argentina     

Global Effects of Local Human Population Density and Distance to Markets on the Condition of Coral Reef Fisheries

Coral reef fisheries support the livelihoods of millions of people but have been severely and negatively affected by anthropogenic activities. We conducted a systematic review of published data on the biomass of coral reef fishes to explore how the condition of reef fisheries is related to the density of local human populations, proximity of the reef to markets, and key environmental variables (including broad geomorphologic reef type, reef area, and net productivity). When only population density and environmental covariates were considered, high variability in fisheries conditions at low human population densities resulted in relatively weak explanatory models. The presence or absence of human settlements, habitat type, and distance to fish markets provided a much stronger explanatory model for the condition of reef fisheries. Fish biomass remained relatively low within 14 km of markets, then biomass increased exponentially as distance from reefs to markets increased. Our results suggest the need for an increased science and policy focus on markets as both a key driver of the condition of reef fisheries and a potential source of solutions. Efectos Globales de la Densidad de Población Humana Local y la Distancia a los Mercados sobre la Condición de Pesquerías en Arrecifes de Coral     

Geographic distribution and environmental characterization of livestock production systems in Eastern Africa

The central role played by livestock in the livelihoods of rural households in the developing world is seldom fully appreciated by policy makers, development agencies and donors. Knowledge gaps in the geographic distribution and environmental determinants of farming systems, especially if viewed through the livestock lens, compound this problem. We have produced a map of pastoral, agro-pastoral and mixed farming systems across Eastern Africa, by analysing datasets collected in the framework of livelihood analysis. Input data were gathered between 2000 and 2007 by various emergency and development agencies for Djibouti, Eritrea, Kenya, Somalia, Uganda and parts of Ethiopia and Sudan. A quantitative definition of the production systems is adopted, based on the ratio of livestock- to crop-derived income. The resulting livelihood-based map of livestock production systems was compared through correspondence analysis to an alternative livestock production systems map, produced independently from environmental data. Convergence between the two mapping approaches was evident. The geographic distribution of the livestock production systems was also modelled using multivariate analysis of remotely sensed and other geospatial datasets. Models show high statistical accuracy, and were thus used to fill the gaps in the observed distribution of livestock production systems. Finally, selected environmental factors underpinning the systems (agro-climatology, human and livestock populations and land cover) were analysed in detail, enabling the livestock production systems to be characterized in terms of them. The regional scope of the map, as well as its direct link with a vast amount of livelihood information, render it a valuable tool for a range of development and research applications, including those related to global change.     

Economic sustainability and the preservation of environmental assets

The core requirement of sustainability is that current economic activities should not result in an excessive burden on future generations. This criterion is general enough to imply different decision rules for the preservation of environmental assets. Neoclassical economics does not have a sustainability criterion for environmental assets independent of the intertemporal efficiency criterion, which allocates environmental and man-made capital based on projected monetary benefits and costs. This criterion is examined in terms of the feasibility of valuing the benefits of environmental assets, the substitution possibilities between natural and man-made capital, and the ethical grounds for using efficiency as the sole determinant of the allocation of environmental assets. An alternative ecological sustainability criterion is the preservation of safe minimum levels of environmental assets in physical terms rather than the dollar value of a composite of natural and man-made capital. Safe minimum standards for environmental assets constrain the efficiency criterion in order to ensure the sustainability of economic systems. It is argued that the ecological approach to sustainability should limit the economic approach for decisions involving the allocation of environmental assets.     

The world agricultural system and ethical considerations relating to the rural environment: Some perspectives on cause and effect in underdeveloped countries

Food is a basic human need and therefore a basic human right. While food output has increased to a level where there is enough food produced to feed the world, still millions starve. Using the concept of capitalist world economy as a framework, this paper provides a structural analysis of the food production and distribution system within monopoly capitalism and its implications for countries of the underdeveloped world. Focusing on the impact of a dominant world food supply system on indigenous systems (particularly through the rise of science, technology, and monopoly capital), considerations relating to environmental use and food production and distribution are raised. Finally a call is made for a new agricultural ethic.     

Statistical evaluation of an agricultural land suitability model

The land evaluation and site assessment (LESA) method has been used extensively in the United States to assess agricultural land suitability for different localities. Despite widespread use, LESA models rarely have been evaluated in a systematic, comprehensive manner. This article discusses development of a LESA system for Hawaii, the first statewide application of the LESA methodology. The empirical model was implemented with a computerized geographic information system (GIS). The system's efficiency, ability to discriminate among land parcels, and robustness to subjective model parameter values are evaluated with statistical analyses and map overlays of GIS data. Results show great potential to simplify the original model specification, primarily through deletion of marginal site assessment factors. System output was generally insensitive to the numeric values selected for model parameters, with exception of the ratio used to combine the land evaluation (LE) and site assessment (SA) component scores. Relative supplies of the differing land attributes measured by the two components must be considered in determining an appropriate LE:SA ratio for a given area.     

Review and appraisal of concept of sustainable food production systems

Environmental degradation, competition for resources, increasing food demands, and the integration of agriculture into the international economy threaten the sustainability of many food production systems. Despite these concerns, the concept of sustainable food production systems remains unclear, and recent attempts to appraise sustainability have been hampered by conceptual inconsistencies and the absence of workable definitions. Six perspectives are shown to underpin the concept. Environmental accounting identifies biophysical limits for agriculture. Sustained yield refers to output levels that can be maintained continuously. Carrying capacity defines maximum population levels that can be supported in perpetuity. Production unit viability refers to the capacity of primary producers to remain in agriculture. Product supply and security focuses on the adequacy of food supplies. Equity is concerned with the spatial and temporal distribution of products dervied from resource use. Many studies into sustainable agriculture cover more than one of these perspectives, indicating the concept is complex and embraces issues relating to the biophysical, social, and economic environments. Clarification of the concept would facilitate the development of frameworks and analytical systems for appraising the sustainability of food production systems. LRRC Contribution No. 90–46.