基于AHP-MF模型的用户群节水指标体系研究

从分析影响用户群节水的因素及其构成关系入手,根据专家长期节水工作的经验,利用层次分析法对用户群节水指标进行优选,并提出全面的定量化和定性化的层次结构评价模式和总体评价方法.首先构建用户群节水的层次分析结构模型及判断矩阵,应用Matlab6.5计算出各判断矩阵的最大特征值及其特征向量,并检验判断矩阵的一致性,继而确定出各指标的权重;其次,应用Fuzzy统计的方法对陕西2006年度高校用户群的节水情况进行评价,并为节水工作提供建设性意见.     

Deliberative democracy meets democratised science: a deliberative systems approach to global environmental governance

The main achievements of the debates on deliberative democracy and democratised science are investigated in order to analyse the reasons, meanings and prospects for a democratisation of global environmental policy. A deliberative systems approach, which emphasises the need to explore how processes in societal spheres interact to shape the deliberative qualities of the system as a whole, is adopted. Although science plays a key role in this, its potential to enhance deliberative capacity has hardly been addressed in deliberative theories. The democratisation of science has potential to contribute to the democratisation of global environmental policy, in that it also shapes the potential of deliberative arrangements in the policy sphere. Deliberative arrangements within the policy sphere may stimulate the democratisation of science to different degrees.     

深圳东部引水水源工程水量水质统一管理的可靠性分析

深圳市东部引水工程，是一项缓解深圳市水资源短缺、促进经济稳定发展、重要跨流域调水工程。工程的管理必须考虑水量、水质、社会经济等多方面的因素，基于水量，水质统一管理的可靠性计算，对工程的可持续发展决策与管理是必需的和有实际意义的，分析传统水资源系统可靠性准则的不足之处，结合工程实际，提出了基于水量、水质统一的水资源系统多准则可靠性评价准则，通过可靠性分析，为深圳东部引水水源工程提供了科学合理的运行管     

灾害发生时影响居民心理承受能力的社会心理因素分析

目的：探讨影响个体面对自然灾害时心理承受能力的社会心理因素．方法，采用问卷调查的方式，运用因素分析法和相关分析法对1000余名居民进行测评．结果。①个体面对灾害时的心理承受能力的影响因素为。灾害意识、灾时行为、灾害认知、社会支持，②通过相关分析，灾时行为对心理承受能力的影响最大。     

Climate Change and Energy Technologies

The long time scale of the climate change problem and the inherent nature of the carbon cycle bring important implications for present technology development efforts. Even if major technology improvements are achieved for non-carbon-emitting technologies such as energy-intensity improvements, wind, solar, biomass, and nuclear over the course of the 21^st century, most examinations of potential future greenhouse emissions conclude that additional technology development will be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. The evelopment of an expanded suite of technologies including carbon capture and disposal, hydrogen systems and biotechnology hold the potential to dramatically reduce the cost of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. This paper examines these technologies in the context of a global integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, land-use, economics, and carbon cycle processes.     

典型生物滞留设施重金属累积分布特征与风险评价

采集了停车场、道路旁、居民区及产业园区4种不同用地类型的生物滞留设施的0～10 cm表层土壤,分析了8种重金属污染物（As、 Hg、 Cd、 Cr、 Pb、 Cu、 Ni和Zn）的累积含量,并对重金属累积的影响因素、污染水平、潜在生态风险和人体健康风险进行了分析和评估.结果表明,8种重金属污染物的累积含量存在较大的差异,ω（As）、ω（Hg）、ω（Cd）、ω（Cr）、ω（Pb）、ω（Cu）、ω（Ni）和ω（Zn）的平均值分别为8.92、 0.25、 0.10、 31.56、 14.81、 21.27、 23.69和62.75 mg·kg^-1, As和Hg的含量平均值分别达到了土壤背景值的1.26和5.21倍;相关性分析表明,8种重金属含量均与土壤有机质含量呈现较强正相关,除Hg之外均与土壤pH值呈现正相关,除As外与磷含量呈现正相关.内梅罗综合指数以及潜在生态风险指数的分析结果表明,除Hg之外的其他7种重金属的污染水平及生态风险较低,受Hg污染的影响,生物滞留设施重金属综合污染水平以及生态风险较高,Hg对土壤环境存在一定的潜在威胁.4类设施重金属非致癌风险在可接受...     

Structural equation model analysis for the evaluation of overall driving performance: A driving simulator study focusing on driver distraction

Objective: The present research relies on 2 main objectives. The first is to investigate whether latent model analysis through a structural equation model can be implemented on driving simulator data in order to define an unobserved driving performance variable. Subsequently, the second objective is to investigate and quantify the effect of several risk factors including distraction sources, driver characteristics, and road and traffic environment on the overall driving performance and not in independent driving performance measures.

Methods: For the scope of the present research, 95 participants from all age groups were asked to drive under different types of distraction (conversation with passenger, cell phone use) in urban and rural road environments with low and high traffic volume in a driving simulator experiment. Then, in the framework of the statistical analysis, a correlation table is presented investigating any of a broad class of statistical relationships between driving simulator measures and a structural equation model is developed in which overall driving performance is estimated as a latent variable based on several individual driving simulator measures.

Results: Results confirm the suitability of the structural equation model and indicate that the selection of the specific performance measures that define overall performance should be guided by a rule of representativeness between the selected variables. Moreover, results indicate that conversation with the passenger was not found to have a statistically significant effect, indicating that drivers do not change their performance while conversing with a passenger compared to undistracted driving. On the other hand, results support the hypothesis that cell phone use has a negative effect on driving performance. Furthermore, regarding driver characteristics, age, gender, and experience all have a significant effect on driving performance, indicating that driver-related characteristics play the most crucial role in overall driving performance.

Conclusions: The findings of this study allow a new approach to the investigation of driving behavior in driving simulator experiments and in general. By the successful implementation of the structural equation model, driving behavior can be assessed in terms of overall performance and not through individual performance measures, which allows an important scientific step forward from piecemeal analyses to a sound combined analysis of the interrelationship between several risk factors and overall driving performance.     

Traditional Land-Use Systems and Patterns of Forest Fragmentation in the Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico

The influence of slash-and-burn agriculture and tree extraction on the spatial and temporal pattern of forest fragmentation in two municipalities in the highlands of Chiapas, Mexico was analyzed. The data series were derived from two subsets of satellite images taken in 1974 and 1996. The analysis was based on area, edge, shape, core area, and neighbor indices. During the 22 years, the dense forest decreased by 8.9%/yr in Huistán and by 8.6%/yr in Chanal, while open/disturbed forest, secondary vegetation, and developed area increased in both municipalities. The total number of fragments increased by 1.4%/yr and 2.3%/yr in Huistán and Chanal, respectively. Dense forest showed the highest increase in the number of fragments (6%/yr in Huistán and 12%/yr in Chanal), while edge length, core area, and number of dense forest core areas decreased. The larger fragments of dense forest present in 1974 were divided into smaller fragments in 1996; at the same time, they experienced a process of degradation toward open/disturbed forest and secondary vegetation. Two different fragmentation patterns could be distinguished based on agricultural or forestry activities. Forest fragmentation did not occur as a continuous process; the pattern and degree of fragmentation were functions of land tenure, environmental conditions, and productive activities. The prevalence of rather poor soil conditions, small-holdings, growing human population densities, increasing poverty, and the absence of alternative economic options will maintain a high rate of deforestation and forest fragmentation in the studied region.     

产甲烷菌和甲烷氧化菌分布对土壤-植物系统甲烷逸出的影响

CH₄(甲烷)的逸出量与产甲烷菌和甲烷氧化菌的数量密切相关.采用FISH(荧光原位杂交)技术定量解析芦苇和香蒲混栽土壤-植物生态系统基质,探讨CH₄的产生机理.结果表明,植物有利于微生物的生长,甲烷氧化菌主要聚居在植物根区,产甲烷菌数量高于甲烷氧化菌.气温变化和系统ORP(氧化还原电位)对土壤-植物生态系统CH₄排放通量的影响很大,芦苇和香蒲混栽土壤-植物生态系统CH₄年均排放通量为22.9 mg/(m2·h),最高达185.6 mg/(m2·h),排放峰值出现在夏季.表明芦苇和香蒲的生长促进了根际分泌物的产生,为产甲烷菌提供了较多生长所需的底物,从而刺激系统CH₄的排放.      

基于OSHMS的煤矿模糊综合安全评价管理模型的建立

针对目前我国煤矿企业安全管理现状,以一种全新的思路结合职业安全健康管理体系(OSHMS)的系统化体系结构及其先进之处,以预防为主,持续改进为动力,建立了基于生产过程的绩效测量、人员职责分配、运行控制和风险管理为核心的4个主要因素的安全评价管理模型;并以此为指导建立安全评价指标体系框架,运用模糊综合安全评价的方法对指标体系进行合成;最后,结合矿井生产过程中的供电系统,对淮南潘三矿现场进行实例应用,证明其可行性。该管理模型对煤矿企业安全管理有推广和借鉴意义,可望为煤矿企业通过安全管理实现科技兴安提供一种更可靠,更有效的安全管理方法。