Traditional Land-Use Systems and Patterns of Forest Fragmentation in the Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico

The influence of slash-and-burn agriculture and tree extraction on the spatial and temporal pattern of forest fragmentation in two municipalities in the highlands of Chiapas, Mexico was analyzed. The data series were derived from two subsets of satellite images taken in 1974 and 1996. The analysis was based on area, edge, shape, core area, and neighbor indices. During the 22 years, the dense forest decreased by 8.9%/yr in Huistán and by 8.6%/yr in Chanal, while open/disturbed forest, secondary vegetation, and developed area increased in both municipalities. The total number of fragments increased by 1.4%/yr and 2.3%/yr in Huistán and Chanal, respectively. Dense forest showed the highest increase in the number of fragments (6%/yr in Huistán and 12%/yr in Chanal), while edge length, core area, and number of dense forest core areas decreased. The larger fragments of dense forest present in 1974 were divided into smaller fragments in 1996; at the same time, they experienced a process of degradation toward open/disturbed forest and secondary vegetation. Two different fragmentation patterns could be distinguished based on agricultural or forestry activities. Forest fragmentation did not occur as a continuous process; the pattern and degree of fragmentation were functions of land tenure, environmental conditions, and productive activities. The prevalence of rather poor soil conditions, small-holdings, growing human population densities, increasing poverty, and the absence of alternative economic options will maintain a high rate of deforestation and forest fragmentation in the studied region.     

Computerized Map of Risk to Manage Wildlife Species in Urban Areas

For the last 20 years, human–wildlife conflicts have been rapidly increasing in towns. Although people want “greener” cities, the expansion of disliked species causes problems that are difficult to manage and to reduce. The complexity of the numerous factors involved in these human–wildlife relations needs the development of a comprehensive tool for urban planners. Today, with the development of computers and geographical information systems, it is easier to analyze and combine different spatial data as methods used for the management of risks in studies of natural hazards. Here we present a method for assessing and mapping the risk in cases of human–wildlife conflict. An application to starling management in a town in western France will show the efficiency of our methods to combine information given by a network of experts and to highlight higher risk sites. The map of risk provides a spatial result useful for comprehension, communication between people and agencies, and public education.     

NITROGEN AND ORGANIC MATTER LOSSES IN NO‐TILL CORN CROPPING SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: Intensive cropping systems based on mechanical movement of soil have induced land degradation in most agricultural areas due to soil erosion and soil fertility losses. Thus, farmers have been increasing fertilization rates to maintain an economically competitive crop yield. This practice has resulted in water quality degradation and lake eutrophication in many agricultural watersheds. Research was conducted in the Patzcuaro watershed in central Mexico to develop appropriate technology that prevents nonpoint source pollution from fertilizers. Organic matter (OM) and nitrogen (N) losses in runoff and nitrate (NO₃‐N) percolation in Andisols with corn under conventional till (CT) and no‐till (NT) treatments using variable percentages of crop residue as soil cover were investigated for steep‐slope agriculture. USLE type runoff plots were used to collect water runoff, while suction tubes with porous caps at 30, 60, and 90 cm depth were used to sample soil water solutes for NO₃‐N analyses. Results indicated a significant reduction of N and OM losses in runoff as residue cover increased in the NT treatments. Inorganic N in runoff was 25 kg/ha for NT without residue cover (NT‐0) and 6 kg/ha for the NT with 100 percent residue cover (NT‐100). Organic matter losses in runoff were 157 and 24 kg/ha for the NT‐0 and NT‐100 treatments, respectively. Nitrate‐N percolation was evident in CT and NT with 100 percent residue cover (NT‐100). However, NT‐100 had higher NO₃‐N concentration at the root zone, suggesting the possibility of reducing fertilization rates with the use of NT treatments.     

MODELING THE IMPACTS OF WATER LEVEL CHANGES ON A GREAT LAKES COMMUNITY1

ABSTRACT: Recent research that couples climate change scenarios based on general circulation models (GCM) with Great Lakes hydrologic models has indicated that average water levels are projected to decline in the future. This paper outlines a methodology to assess the potential impact of declining water levels on Great Lakes waterfront communities, using the Lake Huron shoreline at Goderich, Ontario, as an example. The methodology utilizes a geographic information system (GIS) to combine topographic and bathymetric datasets. A digital elevation surface is used to model projected shoreline change for 2050 using water level scenarios. An arbitrary scenario, based on a 1 m decline from February 2001 lake levels, is also modeled. By creating a series of shoreline scenarios, a range of impact and cost scenarios are generated for the Goderich Harbor and adjacent marinas. Additional harbor and marina dredging could cost as much as CDN $7.6 million. Lake freighters may experience a 30 percent loss in vessel capacity. The methodology is used to provide initial estimates of the potential impacts of climate change that can be readily updated as more robust climate change scenarios become available and is adaptable for use in other Great Lakes coastal communities.     

APPLICATION OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A National Pilot Project (NPP) on Livestock and the Environment was initiated in 1992 to help provide solutions to environmental problems associated with livestock production. A major development of the NPP was the Comprehensive Economic and Environmental Optimization Tool‐Livestock and Poultry (CEEOT‐LP), an integrated modeling system designed to produce economic and environmental indicators for alternative policy scenarios applied to intensive livestock production watersheds. The system consists of a farm‐level economic model (FEM) and two environmental models: the field‐scale APEX model and the watershed‐level SWAT model. To date, CEEOT‐LP has been applied to two watersheds in Texas and one in Iowa. Predicted reductions in P losses for two P‐based manure application rate scenarios, relative to baseline conditions, ranged from ?4 to ?54 percent across the three watersheds; however, N loss impacts ranged from a decrease of 34 percent to an increase of 79 percent. For five other alternative scenarios that were simulated for only one watershed, N and P loss impacts ranged between a reduction of 78 percent to an increase of 20 percent. Aggregate watershed‐level economic impacts of the seven scenarios spanned a spectrum of a 27 percent decrease to a 25 percent increase in profit, relative to the baseline.     

CONSTRUCTING A PROBLEM SOLVING ENVIRONMENT TOOL FOR HYDROLOGIC ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the integration of a comprehensive hydrological model known as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) into a problem solving environment (PSE) for watershed management. The original PSE concept was a structure providing web‐based access to a suite of models, including HSPF and other models of in‐stream hydrodynamics, biological impacts and economic effects, for the watershed‐wide assessment of alternative land use scenarios. The present paper describes only the HSPF integration into the PSE program. Example applications to the 148 square kilometer (57 square mile) Back Creek subwatershed in the upper Roanoke River system (1,479 square kilometers or 571 square miles) in southwest Virginia are used to illustrate important concepts and linkages between land development and hydrological change using hypothetical' what if'scenarios. The features of HSPF and its limitations in this context are discussed. The paper as such is a proof‐of‐concept paper and not a completion report. It is intended to describe the PSE tool building process rather than analysis of the many possible simulation outcomes. However, the dominance of raw imperviousness as a contributor to hydrograph response is apparent in all the PSE simulations described in this paper.     

EFFECTS OF CROPPING SYSTEMS ON NO3-N LOSSES TO TILE DRAIN1

Abstract: Diverse cropping systems can have significant impacts on nutrient losses through tile drain systems and to surface water bodies (rivers and streams). Increased transport of nitrogen to water bodies can reduce dissolved oxygen and enrich the supply of nutrients, resulting in hypoxic zones. With the objective of reducing the transport of nutrients from agricultural watersheds, long term studies (1990 to 1998) were conducted in Iowa to investigate the impact of tillage, crop rotation, and N-management practices on NO₃-N leaching losses to tile drain water. Results of these studies indicated that continuous corn production systems required higher input of nitrogen fertilizers and resulted in significantly higher NO₃-N leaching losses compared to rotated corn in plots either fertilized with manure or urea ammonium nitrate. Also, rotated corn gave higher corn yields, 8 megagrams per hectare (Mg/ha) versus 6 Mg/ha, than continuous corn. The higher N application rates resulted in increased NO₃-N concentrations in tile water. A strip cropping system with alfalfa lowered NO₃-N concentrations in tile water to less than 10 mg/l. These studies indicated that better land use practices can reduce NO₃-N leaching losses to surface and ground water systems and will help in mitigating environmental concerns of the production agriculture.     

ARCGIS‐SWAT: A GEODATA MODEL AND GIS INTERFACE FOR SWAT1

This paper presents ArcGIS‐SWAT, a geodata model and geographic information system (GIS) interface for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The ArcGIS‐SWAT data model is a system of geodatabases that store SWAT geographic, numeric, and text input data and results in an organized fashion. Thus, it is proposed that a single and comprehensive geodatabase be used as the repository of a SWAT simulation. The ArcGIS‐SWAT interface uses programming objects that conform to the Component Object Model (COM) design standard, which facilitate the use of functionality of other Windows‐based applications within ArcGIS‐SWAT. In particular, the use of MS Excel and MATLAB functionality for data analysis and visualization of results is demonstrated. Likewise, it is proposed to conduct hydrologic model integration through the sharing of information with a not‐model‐specific hub data model where information common to different models can be stored and from which it can be retrieved. As an example, it is demonstrated how the Hydrologic Modeling System (HMS) ‐ a computer application for flood analysis ‐ can use information originally developed by ArcGIS‐SWAT for SWAT. The application of ArcGIS‐SWAT to the Seco Creek watershed in Texas is presented.     

A Conceptual Framework for Selecting and Analyzing Stressor Data to Study Species Richness at Large Spatial Scales

/ In this paper we develop a conceptual framework for selectingstressor data and analyzing their relationship to geographic patterns ofspecies richness at large spatial scales. Aspects of climate and topography,which are not stressors per se, have been most strongly linked withgeographic patterns of species richness at large spatial scales (e.g.,continental to global scales). The adverse impact of stressors (e.g., habitatloss, pollution) on species has been demonstrated primarily on much smallerspatial scales. To date, there has been a lack of conceptual developmenton how to use stressor data to study geographic patterns of speciesrichness at large spatial scales.The framework we developed includes four components: (1) clarification of theterms stress and stressor and categorization of factors affecting speciesrichness into three groups-anthropogenic stressors, natural stressors, andnatural covariates; (2) synthesis of the existing hypotheses for explaininggeographic patterns of species richness to identify the scales over whichstressors and natural covariates influence species richness and to providesupporting evidence for these relationships through review of previousstudies; (3) identification of three criteria for selection of stressor andcovariate data sets: (a) inclusion of data sets from each of the threecategories identified in item 1, (b) inclusion of data sets representingdifferent aspects of each category, and (c) to the extent possible, analysisof data quality; and (4) identification of two approaches for examiningscale-dependent relationships among stressors, covariates, and patterns ofspecies richness-scaling-up and regression-tree analyses.Based on this framework, we propose 10 data sets as a minimum data base forexamining the effects of stressors and covariates on species richness atlarge spatial scales. These data sets include land cover, roads, wetlands(numbers and loss), exotic species, livestock grazing, surface water pH,pesticide application, climate (and weather), topography, and streams.KEY WORDS: Anthropogenic impacts; Biodiversity; Environmental gradients;Geographic information systems; Hierarchy     

Initial decision analysis (IDA): a participatory approach for developing resource policies

Initial decision analysis (IDA) is a microcomputer based decision-making technique that is organized so that a rational, step-by-step, procedure can be followed to use existing knowledge to develop resource policies. The IDA process provides a systematic way for participants to define their own problem and to explore jointly alternative solutions. IDA is particularly suited to resolving complex problems involving many groups with conflicting interests. IDA is illustrated with data from the US Forest Service's Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the 1985 to 2030 Resource Planning Act Program for the United States. Four policy options are evaluated: maximization of timber production, of grazing, and of wilderness, and a dominant use policy that concentrates timber management on productive sites. Policies were evaluated using a new mathematical satisficing procedure. Mathematical satisficing of simulated policy consequences showed that, for selected performance standards, current RPA policies are superior to the four alternative policies examined.