基于多态模糊BN的石化动设备故障概率定量风险评估

石化行业的压缩机、泵等动设备故障模式多样,故障概率的不确定性较大,常用的风险评估方法无法实现对石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估,限制了设备安全管理的准确性和有效性.基于贝叶斯网络(BN)可定量计算复杂系统失效概率的特点,利用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法获取动设备风险事件的因果关系,将其映射为BN,并利用BN中节点...     

Kinetic mechanism and effects of molecular structure on thermal hazards of azo compounds

In this paper, the kinetic mechanism of AIBN, AMBN, and ABVN was proposed, and the effect of molecular structure on their thermal hazards based on the kinetic mechanism was investigated. Calculated by non-isothermal DSC datum, the kinetic mechanism of AIBN, AMBN, and ABVN is revealed by the linear relationship between the integrated form of mechanical function and reaction time. The results indicate that the thermal decomposition process is controlled by the Johnson-Mehl-Avrami equation. Based on the determination of kinetic mechanism function, the reaction rate constants at various heating rates are directly calculated, and the intercept of the best fitting straight line of reaction rate constants with heating rate is approximately equal to the reaction rate constant under isothermal conditions. Besides, theoretical values obtained by multiplying kinetic mechanism function by reaction rate are well consistent with the experimental values, suggesting that the kinetic mechanism obtained is credible. Bond Dissociation Energies (BDE) calculated by quantum chemical equations are employed to evaluate the thermodynamics stability of AIBN, AMBN, and ABVN. Depending on similar molecular structures, the influence of differentiated group structure on the thermodynamic stability represented by BDE and heat release and the kinetic stability characterized by reaction rate constant were revealed. Finally, the results demonstrate that the thermal hazard increases as the volume of substituent group and molecular weight.     

Effects of age and sex ratios on offspring recruitment rates in translocated black rhinoceros

Success of animal translocations depends on improving postrelease demographic rates toward establishment and subsequent growth of released populations. Short‐term metrics for evaluating translocation success and its drivers, like postrelease survival and fecundity, are unlikely to represent longer‐term outcomes. We used information theory to investigate 25 years of data on black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis) translocations. We used the offspring recruitment rate (ORR) of translocated females—a metric integrating survival, fecundity, and offspring recruitment at sexual maturity—to detect determinants of success. Our unambiguously best model (AICω = 0.986) predicted that ORR increases with female age at release as a function of lower postrelease adult rhinoceros sex ratio (males:females). Delay of first postrelease reproduction and failure of some females to recruit any calves to sexual maturity most influenced the pattern of ORRs, and the leading causes of recruitment failure were postrelease female death (23% of all females) and failure to calve (24% of surviving females). We recommend translocating older females (≥6 years old) because they do not exhibit the reproductive delay and low ORRs of juveniles (<4 years old) or the higher rates of recruitment failure of juveniles and young adults (4–5.9 years old). Where translocation of juveniles is necessary, they should be released into female‐biased populations, where they have higher ORRs. Our study offers the unique advantage of a long‐term analysis across a large number of replicate populations—a science‐by‐management experiment as a proxy for a manipulative experiment, and a rare opportunity, particularly for a large, critically endangered taxon such as the black rhinoceros. Our findings differ from previous recommendations, reinforce the importance of long‐term data sets and comprehensive metrics of translocation success, and suggest attention be shifted from ecological to social constraints on population growth and species recovery, particularly when translocating species with polygynous breeding systems.     

不同冲击速度下硬煤的力学特性试验研究

为了研究硬煤破坏过程中的动态力学特性，采用Φ50 mm变截面分离式霍普金森压杆（SHPB）试验系统，对45#钢制薄壁套筒施加环向约束的硬煤试件进行不同加载速率的冲击压缩试验，得到被动围压下轴向应力-应变曲线、径向应力-应变曲线及最大被动围压和冲击速度的关系。研究结果表明:峰值应力、峰值应变随着冲击速度的增大而增大，最大被动围压值与冲击速度呈幂次增长的关系；被动围压下的硬煤试件变形受到限制，试件延性、抗压能力显著提高；随着冲击速度的增大，薄壁套筒对试件的约束也逐渐增大，达到峰值后，冲击速度对被动围压的影响减小，筒壁厚度影响着被动围压效果。     

我国公众参与环境决策的运行机制及其优化

本文简要论述了良好的决策机制是公众参与环境决策的基本保障,分析了当前我国公众参与环境决策运行机制存在的不足,并提出了优化其运行机制的一些思路。     

构建农民收入增长的长效机制

“三农问题”是关系国家经济和社会发展全局的问题，其核心是农民收入增长，农民收入增长的关键是构建收入增长的长效机制。本文通过分析中国农民收入的现状，从制度视角分析农民收入增长缓慢的土地制度、税费制度、金融体制、公共品供给体制以硬社会保障制度等方面原因．在此基础上提出构建中国农民收入增长长效机制的制度框架。     

WATER-SURFACE PROFILES WITHOUT ENERGY LOSS COEFFICIENTS1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a new method of computing water-surface profiles, which does not require the assumption of hydrostatic pressure or of roughness coefficients. The method is based upon distributing entropy production values along a channel as uniformly as boundary conditions permit. The method requires a discharge capacity rating at a channel cross-section within the limits of the reach of the channel. A new theoretical relationship between the kinetic and momentum coefficients for the velocity profile is used, together with a dynamic programming technique for optimal distribution of energy losses along the channel. A computer model was developed and was used to verify the methodology for flood flow and channel data at four locations.     

论煤矿安全长效机制中经济杠杆的作用

随着我国社会主义市场经济体制的进一步完善和国民经济的持续高速发展,安全生产也面临着新的挑战。在以煤炭生产为代表的高风险行业中建立“长久”而又“有效”的安全生产机制,必须坚持科学发展观,严格遵循经济规律,充分发挥经济杠杆作用。笔者结合我国煤矿安全生产的实际状况,从加强煤矿企业资本管理制度、实行煤炭资源有偿使用制度、建立税收优惠政策、强化煤矿安全保险制度、提高职工伤亡抚恤标准、推行煤矿负责人安全风险抵押金制度和实施煤炭行业人才培养体系改革等方面,提出了煤矿安全生产长效机制建设的新举措。     

江西省兴国县土壤侵蚀动态监测研究

介绍发应用遥感技术和调查资料编制的江西省兴国县三个时期（１９５８，１９７５，１９８８年）的土壤侵蚀动态监测图。结果表明，建国以来，该县水土流失的动态变化基本上呈抛物线的态势发展，目前水土流失面积在缩小，程度在降低，总的趋势向好的方向发展。     

混沌理论：人类认识自然灾害的工具之一

自然灾害实际上是“人-自然系统”呈现为一种无序的状态.在人类面临的众多的自然灾害中,有一些特殊类型的自然灾害具有“混沌性态”的无序性.当(1)人-自然系统内出现混沌无序并超过某一临界值时,或(2)人-自然系统的某一纯粹的自然子系统出现混沌无序性且继而引发了整个人-自然系统的无序性时,危及人类生存,便产生了自然灾害。在人-自然系统中,导致混沌性自然灾害的条件至少有四种:(1)三个或三个以上作用源加上非线性关系;(2)某些变量的周期性解变得不稳定;(3)控制参量超过临界值导致周期倍增;(4)周期性扰动作用于非线性项.在此基础上,本文进一步提出了防灾或减灾的如下四条原则措施:在人—自然系统中,(1)减弱某些非线性机制;(2)隔离某些相互作用的要素及其子环路;(3)控制某些关键性参量的变化,(4)提高(或降低)某些重要变量的临界值.