Determination of explosion limits – Criterion for ignition under non-atmospheric conditions

Many industrial processes are run at non-atmospheric conditions (elevated temperatures and pressures, other oxidizers than air). To judge whether and if yes to what extent explosive gas(vapor)/air mixtures will occur or may be generated during malfunction it is necessary to know the safety characteristic data at the respective conditions. Safety characteristic data like explosion limits, are depending on pressure, temperature and the oxidizer. Most of the determination methods are standardized for ambient conditions. In order to obtain determination methods for non-atmospheric conditions, particularly for higher initial pressures, reliable ignition criteria were investigated. Ignition tests at the explosion limits were carried out for mixtures of methane, propane, n-butane, n-hexane, hydrogen, ammonia and acetone in air at initial pressures up to 20 bar. The tests have been evaluated according to different ignition criteria: visual flame propagation, temperature and pressure rising. It could be shown that flame propagation and occasionally self-sustained combustion for several seconds occurred together with remarkable temperature rise, although the pressure rise was below 3%. The results showed that the combination of a pressure rise criterion of 2% and a temperature rise criterion of 100 K seems to be a suitable ignition criterion for the determination of explosion limits and limiting oxidizer concentration at higher initial pressures and elevated temperatures. The tests were carried out within the framework of a R&D project founded by the German Ministry of Economics and Technology.     

对重大危险源安全预警系统的探讨

阐述了安全预警技术和重大危险源安全预警系统的建立.重大危险源安全预警系统的建立,将对实现重大危险源安全监察工作信息化、科学化、现代化起到积极的推动作用.     

水资源约束下江苏省城镇开发安全预警

城镇规模的扩张离不开水资源的支撑,水资源承载力是影响城镇开发的重要因素。论文提出一种以水资源约束测算城镇开发度阈值及从"状态-趋势-效应"尺度进行开发度预警的方法,并以江苏省为例进行实证探索,最终划分综合预警分区。结果显示:到2020年,苏州、 无锡、 常州、 南京将成为重度预警区;徐州、 连云港为高度预警区;镇江、 扬州、 泰州、 南通为中度预警区;淮安、 宿迁、 盐城为轻度预警区。利用GM(1,1)模型和相关方程,对城镇开发度、 开发容量、 开发临界时点及开发后温度变化与碳汇损益定性定量化,进行整个开发过程的模拟,客观反映城镇开发安全变化的动态性,以期为政府制定差别化的开发政策和预警措施提供科学依据和理论支撑。     

Comparing reactions to two severe tornadoes in one Oklahoma community

The authors compared the effect of the 3 May 1999 F5 and 8 May 2003 F3 tornadoes on the community of Moore, Oklahoma, by canvassing damaged areas after both tornadoes and surveying residents. Significantly more 1999 than 2003 residents reported property damage and injuries. Television and tornado sirens were the most common warnings each year, however, more 1999 residents received and responded to television warnings. Importantly, storm shelters were used more frequently in 2003. Fifty-one per cent of residents who experienced both tornadoes took the same amount of protective action in 2003 as they had in 1999; 22% took less; and 27% took more. Residents who took less action said that the reason for doing so was inadequate warning and shelter. First-hand experience of tornadoes prompts people to heed warnings when adequate notification is received and to take effective protective action when adequate shelter is available.     

淮河流域致洪暴雨特征及预警指标分析

本文通过对1950～2000年的个例分析,总结了淮河流域致洪暴雨的天气学特征和判别指标;根据区域降水量与王家坝站的水位分析,确定了淮河流域致洪暴雨的预警指标.     

甘肃省资源环境承载力监测预警

在综合考虑国家不同部门出台的政策基础上,构建了甘肃省资源环境承载力监测预警指标体系,采用基于AHP—熵权法的综合赋权法确定权重,并借鉴已有成果对各项指标的警限阈值进行了讨论确定;使用综合指数模型对甘肃省2006-2016年及各县级行政区资源环境承载力进行了分析研究。结果表明：（1）2006-2016年甘肃省资源环境承载力水平介于0.32~0.46之间,虽总体呈现增加趋势,但均处于超载预警状态。在空间上呈现出河西地区承载能力高,南部和东南部地区次之、中部地区承载力较差的格局。（2）十年间甘肃省资源承载力水平呈平稳上升态势,其中水资源承载力与能矿承载力处于较差水平;当前临夏市、天水市和平凉市处于橙色超载状态。（3）十年间甘肃省环境承载力水平呈“W”型曲线波动且超载严重,具有南部地区和兰州环境承载能力较好于河西和东部地区的空间差异。研究表明甘肃省资源环境超载严重,虽然自“十二五”以来生态文明建设成效显著,但缓解这一压力非短期之功,仍需进行不懈的努力。     

地震预警系统中的算法研究

通过对地震预警系统中基本算法的研究,在现有方法的基础上提出了一套地震参数快速估算的算法,以应用于地震预警系统中。该算法根据某些噪音的特殊性质,通过引入两个参数:触发时窗与取消阈值,对常用的P波初到判断方法STA/LTA(长时窗平均/短时窗平均)算法进行改进,以消除P波到达前的异常跳动点与脉冲噪音的影响,对P波到达进行识别。在识别到P波到达后,该算法实时的从P波初到后3s时窗内的竖向数据中提取出12类特征性质不同的计算参数作为估算震级,震中距等地震参数的依据,提高了震级、震中距的估算精度,减少了在大震下估算的离散性,取得了较好的结果。该算法可在地震P波到达后的几秒钟内,估算出地震相关参数,在S波到达前发出预警,并为采取相应的措施以及震后求援行动提供判断依据,达到防灾减灾的目的。     

环境污染对戒烟人群的心理警示作用建模分析研究

环境污染过程中,由于对污染源的轻视最终造成极大的污染后果,分析污染生成过程对戒烟人群的心理会产生一定的警示作用,因此,针对环境污染过程的警示作用提出戒烟人群的心理警示作用模型.建模过程中对四项衡量指标进行计算分析,经过模型修订最终完成警示模型的构建.使用构建的模型对戒烟人群进行心理警示评估.通过试验分析可知,建立的警示模型在通常状态下能够对戒烟人群达到警示督促作用.     

环境基准研究与环境标准制定进展及展望

环境基准是一个非常棘手且具有挑战性的科学难题,环境标准制定与修订是一项长期的、艰巨的任务。根据国际上该方向近年来的发展,对环境基准和环境标准的概念与内涵进行了论述,对过去的认识进行了纠正,指出:环境基准不等于环境质量基准,环境基准应该包括环境质量基准和污染环境修复基准2个方面;相应地,环境标准则应包括环境质量标准和污染环境修复标准2个部分。在此基础上,概述了国际和国内有关环境质量基准研究方面取得的显著成绩,列举了法国(作为西欧的代表)、加拿大(作为美洲的代表)和意大利(作为中欧的代表)在环境质量标准制定过程中的先进做法,介绍了美国、英国和俄罗斯等国家在污染环境修复基准研究与污染环境修复标准制定等方面的进展。最后,对我国今后环境基准的研究进行了展望。