基于AHP的工业企业震后恢复重建优先等级评价

地震灾害一直是人类社会所面临的重大自然灾害之一,在灾害发生之后,为了能够让灾区较短时间内恢复正常的生产生活和社会运行,高效率的恢复重建机制不可或缺.在所有的震后恢复重建项目中,灾区原有的工业企业的恢复重建是一大重点,这些工业企业在灾前往往是当地政府税收的主要来源,也为当地人口提供了大量的就业岗位.然而,能够投入到灾区用...     

Of timelines and timeliness: lessons from Typhoon Haiyan in early disaster response

Typhoon Haiyan struck the Philippines on 8 November 2013 with maximum sustained winds of 235 kilometres per hour, adversely affecting at least 11 million people and displacing some 673,000 in the central regions of the country. The disaster clearly overwhelmed the Philippine government despite its seemingly well‐crafted disaster management plan. Using timelines of different organisations, this paper identifies gaps in the government's response, mainly due to its failure in coordinating and managing relief operations, which adversely affected its effectiveness and efficiency in the delivery of critical goods and services following the disaster. The paper also demonstrates how non‐governmental organisations (NGOs), the United Nations, foreign governments and other organisations provided assistance, mainly through aid niching, to cover the government's shortcomings. The paper recommends a paradigm shift in the government's disaster response by integrating collaborative arrangements between government agencies and NGOs, and giving local governments the lead role, with the national government as support, in disaster planning and response.     

Barriers to the long‐term recovery of individuals with disabilities following a disaster

This study examines how pre‐existing disabling conditions influenced the recovery process of survivors of Hurricane Katrina. It focuses specifically on the barriers that hindered the recovery process in these individuals. Focus groups were convened in four Gulf Coast states with 31 individuals with disabilities who lived in or around New Orleans, Louisiana, prior to Hurricane Katrina in August 2005. Qualitative data were analysed using grounded theory methodology. Five themes emerged as the most significant barriers to recovery: housing; transportation; employment; physical and mental health; and accessing recovery services. While these barriers to recovery were probably common to most survivors of the disaster, the research results suggest that disability status enhanced the challenges that participants experienced in negotiating the recovery process and in acquiring resources that accommodated their disabilities. The findings indicate that, when disaster recovery services and resources did not accommodate the needs of individuals with disabilities, recovery was hindered. Recovery efforts should include building accessible infrastructure and services that will allow for participation by all.     

Towards a natural disaster intervention and recovery framework

Contemporary responses to facilitate long‐term recovery from large‐scale natural disasters juxtapose between those of humanitarian agencies and governments and those of the affected community. The extent to which these mechanisms articulate is crucial to the recovery propensity of the affected communities. This research examines such action by exploring the relationship between the scale of post‐disaster response interventions, the extent of community participation in them, and their impact on community recovery, using a community wealth capital framework. The investigation was applied to a study of the longer‐term community recovery of the island of Vilufushi, Republic of Maldives, which was almost completely destroyed by the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004. Data were analysed through the employment of a pattern match technique and a holistic recovery network analysis. The research framework, informed by the case‐study results, other long‐term recovery evaluations, and existing resilience theory, is reconfigured as a testable roadmap for future post‐disaster interventions.     

The nuclear disaster management system in Taiwan: a case study of the third (Maanshan) nuclear power plant

This paper explores the effectiveness of the nuclear disaster management system in Taiwan via a review of the third (Maanshan) nuclear power plant. In doing so, the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in Japan on 11 March 2011 is reviewed and compared with the situation in Taiwan. The latter's nuclear disaster management system is examined with respect to three key variables: information; mobilisation; and inter‐organisational cooperation. In‐depth interviews with 10 policy stakeholders with different backgrounds serve as the research method. The results point up the need for improvement in all dimensions. In addition, they highlight three principal problems with the nuclear disaster management system: (i) it might not be possible to provide first‐hand nuclear disaster information immediately to the communities surrounding the Maanshan facility in Pingtung County, southern Taiwan; (ii) the availability of medical resources for treating radiation in Hengchun Township is limited; and (iii) the inter‐organisational relationships for addressing nuclear disasters need to be strengthened. Hence, cooperation among related organisations is necessary.     

基于GDEM-PDyna的尾矿库溃坝三维数值模拟分析研究*

为进一步探究尾矿坝溃决后特有泥石流运移规律,掌握坝体破坏前至溃坝结束全流程发展状态,依托广东省某案例尾矿库为研究对象,采用基于有限元与离散元耦合方法的GDEM-PDyna软件构建泥石流类流体下泄演化数值模型,开展尾矿坝溃决演化分析,动态模拟尾矿库溃决过程中泥砂运动规律及淹没范围,并与MIKE 21软件计算结果进行对比。研究结果表明:尾矿坝溃决后,泥石流类流体流速升高、持续时间较短且尾砂流量发展迅速,2种模拟方法对比结果表明溃坝后坝基位置下泄流量变化与下游敏感点溃坝淹没深度变化情况一致。研究结果可为实现尾矿库下游重点区域灾害评估提供量化支撑,可有效提高尾矿坝溃决后灾害影响评估的精准性。     

基于置信规则的村镇应急避难场所暴雨灾害链风险诊断*

为解决村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨灾害时的风险问题,基于故障树和置信规则库推理方法,提出暴雨灾害链和村镇应急避难场所功能破坏链相结合的场所避难功能失效风险诊断模型。根据事故致因理论推理灾害节点变量,通过故障树描述灾害链,运用关联规则从历史灾害数据中挖掘规则,建立置信规则库系统,构建村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险诊断模型,并以四川省某寄宿制学校为例进行模型验证。研究结果表明:该模型可实现不同证据组合下村镇应急避难场所功能失效风险的诊断推理;实例的模型诊断结果与实际情况吻合,证实该模型能够科学地诊断村镇应急避难场所面临暴雨等恶劣自然条件时存在的风险,可为村镇应急避难场所规划设计和应急管理提供理论支撑。     

安徽数字测震台网地震编目分析

安徽测震台网数字化系统运行以来,编目工作发生了巨大变化。地震震相分析均在数字化记录波形上进行标注,地震发生时刻、经纬度、震级由软件自动计算,生成地震目录和震相报告,数据质量有了很大提高。台网子台数量增加,地震定位更加准确,在地震预报研究工作中发挥了重要作用。     

江苏省地震科学数据共享平台技术研究

本文利用分布式数据库技术着力研究和开发了江苏省地震局的测震数据库、前兆数据库的共享、管理与集中发布技术。主要运用JSP（Java Server Page）技术及PHP（Hypertext Preprocessor）语言对测震的JOPENS系统中MySQL数据库、EQIM数据库、及前兆Oracle数据库等进行进一步地开发。搭建了一个行业内跨计算机操作平台的可视化的地震科技数据共享、交换及管理平台,实现了多种地震科学数据的（例如近、远震地震信息、各学科的运行率等）在线可视化、基于Google Map检索的地震信息服务等。     

远程数值模拟技术在赤潮应急监测中的应用研究

根据赤潮灾害应急监测的需要,以应急监测实施为出发点,基于水动力数值模拟技术和赤潮藻种扩散模拟技术,建立可业务化应用的赤潮应急监测远程数值模拟平台。平台可成为多部门应对赤潮灾害的协同工作平台,为管理部门提供赤潮发生后藻种的漂移方向、扩散范围等信息,并为监测队伍提供监测范围指引。平台的构建实现了对突发性赤潮灾害的远程智能分析和决策支持,提高了赤潮应急监测方案的合理性和监测实施的有效性。