Assessing Landscape Condition Relative to Water Resources in the Western United States: A Strategic Approach

The Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) is proposing an ambitious agenda to assess the status of streams and estuaries in a 12-State area of the western United States by the end of 2003. Additionally, EMAP is proposing to access landscape conditions as they relate to stream and estuary conditions across the west. The goal of this landscape project is to develop a landscape model that can be used to identify the relative risks of streams and estuaries to potential declines due to watershed-scale, landscape conditions across the west. To do so, requires an understanding of quantitative relationships between landscape composition and pattern metrics and parameters of stream and estuary conditions. This paper describes a strategic approach for evaluating the degree to which landscape composition and pattern influence stream and estuary condition, and the development and implementation of a spatially-distributed, landscape analysis approach.     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multi-Criteria and Multi-Perspective Analysis of Contaminated Land Management Methods

Errors in environmental resource management over the years have created pollution problems in some areas which are difficult to handle, regardless of the development of knowledge and technologies. This is particularly true in the case of soil pollution. The negative effects of persistent pollutants have been observed for a long time. For instance, lead and cadmium remain in the soil for centuries, during which time they are absorbed by plants and simultaneously cause secondary air pollution. The authors made an attempt to describe and assess the possible options of dealing with the problem of contaminated land in Katowice District. Considering the necessity of a multilateral approach, a pairwise comparison technique has been chosen as the most suitable to show the complexity of the problem. The different variants of actions aimed at preventing the pollutants from getting into the food chain were analyzed against a set of criteria, consisting of the following issues: time, cost, effectiveness, social acceptance, feasibility. The relative importance of actions were judged by the team of experts using the Saaty method. Also, a two-perspective assessment (the two different stakeholders), which involves considering the perspective of an owner of a piece of contaminated land and an ecologist has been performed. The results of comparative, multicriteria and multi-perspective assessment indicate the following:- the best method for contaminated agricultural land management is willful and controlled cultivation,- other recommended actions are deep ploughing and phytoremediation,- there is not much acceptance for the other methods.     

Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

海上/岸边储运设施溢油环境风险应急分析

文章分析了海上/岸边油品储运设施的溢油特点,并从溢油流入附近水体后产生的环境风险角度出发,探讨国内外针对溢油事故的法律框架、环境应急反应体系、环境应急响应和应急处置措施。分析在环境应急反应方面国内应对溢油事故存在的问题,为今后在溢油事故环境应急反应方面提出合理化建议。     

大连市水资源与社会经济协调发展研究

选取大连2001-2008年的水资源利用和社会经济发展数据,引用协调发展度模型进行分析.评价结果表明,大连水资源与社会经济的协调度性由严重失调衰退向中级失调衰退发展,与大连的实际发展情况相符.对大连水资源与社会经济发展不协调的原因进行分析,为今后加大水利工程投资力度,优化用水结构,提高用水效率,实现水资源与社会经济的协调发展提供依据.     

中国环境污染与经济增长关系的实证分析

运用主成分分析法、格兰杰因果分析法、基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法对我国1989-2009年期间环境污染与经济增长的动态关系进行了研究.结果表明,经济增长是导致我国环境污染的重要原因,发展经济带来的环境恶化具有滞后性;经济增长的代价是环境污染,且这种交换是一种长期模式.然而,环境污染带来的经济增长却是短暂的,其动力很快将会消失殆尽,并长期反作用于经济增长,制约经济的长期发展.     

安庆市对外服务能力发展分析——基于城市经济活动基本部分扩展的视角

城市的全部经济活动可分为基本活动部分和非基本活动部分.城市的基本活动部分是城市对外服务部分,也是城市发展的主要内部驱动力.以安庆市为例,以2001-2007年城市经济活动基本部分的扩展为切入点,用城市经济活动基本部门从业人数的扩展描述城市外向功能量的发展,再用城市流强度量化城市对外服务功能.结果表明,安庆市近几年对外服务能力呈明显增长态势,城市经济活动基本部分的扩展决定了城市对外服务能力的增长,并且城市第二产业的对外服务能力较强.     

基于Markov模型的南京土地利用时空变化研究

利用江苏2000年、2008年遥感数据,采用ArcGIS和Excel测算出南京市辖区8年土地利用的Matkov转移矩阵,从数量、空间和结构角度分析2000-2008年的土地利用变化状况,预测2016年的各类用地面积.结果表明,2000-2008年研究区的城镇和工矿交通用地扩张较快,农村居民点用地略有减少,呈集中态势;耕地、草地、林地、水域减少,未利用地减幅最大.在空间上,研究区的建设用地扩张由"同心圆状"变为"纺锤状",土地利用集中度和强度都增大.2016年预测显示,城镇用地比重达44.76%,耕地减少23.47%,其余用地基本保持前8年的变化趋势,但动态度有所减小,仅农村居民点用地减幅增大.