CLIMATIC CHANGE AND U.S. WATER RESOURCES: FROM MODELED WATERSHED IMPACTS TO NATIONAL ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: Water is potentially one of the most affected resources as climate changes. Though knowledge and understanding has steadily evolved about the nature and extent of many of the physical effects of possible climate change on water resources, much less is known about the economic responses and impacts that may emerge. Methods and results are presented that examine and quantify many of the important economic consequences of possible climate change on U.S. water resources. At the core of the assessment is the simulation of multiple climate change scenarios in economic models of four watersheds. These Water Allocation and Impact Models (Water‐AIM) simulate the effects of modeled runoff changes under various climate change scenarios on the spatial and temporal dimensions of water use, supply, and storage and on the magnitude and distribution of economic consequences. One of the key aspects and contributions of this approach is the capability of capturing economic response and adaptation behavior of water users to changes in water scarcity. By reflecting changes in the relative scarcity (and value) of water, users respond by changing their patterns of water use, intertemporal storage in reservoirs, and changes in the pricing of water. The estimates of economic welfare change that emerge from the Water‐AIM models are considered lower‐bound estimates owing to the conservative nature of the model formulation and key assumptions. The results from the Water‐AIM models form the basis for extrapolating impacts to the national level. Differences in the impacts across the regional models are carried through to the national assessment by matching the modeled basins with basins with similar geographical, climatic, and water use characteristics that have not been modeled and by using hydro‐logic data across all U.S. water resources regions. The results from the national analysis show that impacts are borne to a great extent by nonconsumptive users that depend on river flows, which rise and fall with precipitation, and by agricultural users, primarily in the western United States, that use a large share of available water in relatively low‐valued uses. Water used for municipal and industrial purposes is largely spared from reduced availability because of its relatively high marginal value. In some cases water quality concerns rise, and additional investments may be required to continue to meet established guidelines.     

A LOW COST DRIP IRRIGATION SYSTEM FOR SMALL FARMERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES1

ABSTRACT: In areas where water is scarce, drip irrigation provides the most efficient way to conserve irrigation water, but its cost of £1000 an acre is prohibitive for most small farmers in developing countries. The cost was reduced by 90 percent by (1) making dripper lines moveable, so that each line reaches ten rows instead of one; (2) replacing 25-cent emitters with simple 0.70 mm holes punched by a heated needle; and (3) using £3.00 off-the-shelf 20 liter containers with cloth filters in place of expensive filter systems. This reduced the cost of a half-acre system to £50. The low cost system was field tested in the hill areas of Nepal, and in mulberry cultivation in Andhra Pradesh, India. Uniformity of flow from emitters was 73–84 percent. Small farmers reported that the low cost trickle irrigation system cut labor requirements in half, and doubled the area irrigated by the same amount of water. The low cost drip system is likely to be widely adopted by small farmers in semi-arid and hilly regions.     

21世纪矿产资源经济展望

简要阐明了矿产资源经济、矿产经济和矿业经济基本概念和相互关系 ,在对我国内外矿产资源特点与需求分析基础上 ,探讨了21世纪矿产资源经济的基本问题 ,提出我国21世纪的矿产资源勘查评价的科学问题。     

Geography of conservation spending,biodiversity, and culture

We used linear and multivariate models to examine the associations between geography, biodiversity, per capita economic output, national spending on conservation, governance, and cultural traits in 55 countries. Cultural traits and social metrics of modernization correlated positively with national spending on conservation. The global distribution of this spending culture was poorly aligned with the distribution of biodiversity. Specifically, biodiversity was greater in the tropics where cultures tended to spend relatively less on conservation and tended to have higher collectivism, formalized and hierarchical leadership, and weaker governance. Consequently, nations lacking social traits frequently associated with modernization, environmentalism, and conservation spending have the largest component of Earth's biodiversity. This has significant implications for setting policies and priorities for resource management given that biological diversity is rapidly disappearing and cultural traits change slowly. Therefore, we suggest natural resource management adapt to and use characteristics of existing social organization rather than wait for or promote social values associated with conservation spending. Supporting biocultural traditions, engaging leaders to increase conservation commitments, cross‐national efforts that complement attributes of cultures, and avoiding interference with nature may work best to conserve nature in collective and hierarchical societies. Spending in modernized nations may be a symbolic response to a symptom of economic development and environmental degradation, and here conservation actions need to ensure that biodiversity is not being lost.     

Greenhouse effect and coastal wetland policy: How Americans could abandon an area the size of Massachusetts at minimum cost

Climatologists generally expect an anthropogenic global warming that could raise sea level 30–150 cm in the next century and more thereafter. One of the impacts would be the loss of coastal wetlands. Although the inundation of adjacent dryland would enable new wetlands to form, much of this land is or will soon be developed. If developed areas are protected, wetlands will be squeezed between an advancing sea and the land being protected, which has already happened in China and the Netherlands, where people have built dikes for centuries. Unlike those countries, the United States has enough land to accommodate the landward migration of wetlands; but governments lack the funds to purchase all the coastal lowlands that might be inundated and the legal authority to prohibit their development. We propose a third approach: allowing property owners to use coastal lowlands today as they choose, but setting up a legal mechanism to ensure that the land is abandoned if and when sea level rises enough to inundate it. Although compensation may be required, this approach would cost less than 1% as much as purchasing the land, and would be (1) economically efficient by enabling real estate markets to incorporate expectations of future sea level rise; (2) constitutional by compensating property owners; and (3) politically feasible by pleasing people who care about the long-term fate of the coastal environment without disturbing people who either are unconcerned about the distant future or do not believe sea level will rise. This article demonstrates that it would be irrational to delay policy formulation until sea level rise projections are more precise. The cost will be small if we act now but great if we wait, and sea level is already rising along most coasts. The US government should develop a strategy in the next three years. The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of EPA and no official endorsement should be inferred.     

THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF TIME AND AVERTING EXPENDITURES FOR SAFE DRINKING WATER1

ABSTRACT: A survey of individuals during a Giardia contamination incident provided data to calculate the cost of boiling, hauling, or purchasing water to avoid infection. Three different approaches to the valuation of time were used to assess the implications of the opportunity cost of time for the measurement of averting costs. Mean monthly household averting costs were $33.47 using family income to value time, $13.07 using the minimum wage to value time, and $5.60 using zero opportunity cost of time. Comparisons of the mean costs for different sources and household characteristics indicated the value of time from family income was too high and that the other methods of valuing time were superior.     

关于安全经济学的分析与探讨

论述了安全经济学的概念、基础，及其在安全科学体系结构中的地位和作用，提出了研究的主要内容和方法。     

GROUND WATER QUALITY IMPLICATIONS OF SOIL CONSERVATION MEASURES: AN ECONOMIC PERSPECTWE1

ABSTRACT: An evaluation of the intermedia movement of pesticides applied under various land management systems already in place, or to be implemented, under the Conservation Reserve and Conservation Compliance programs is presented. The simulation modeling approach followed in this analysis consists of a mathematical programming model and leaching/surface runoff, Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM) models. Special care was taken to ensure that the physical model was sensitive to the chemical characteristics of individual pesticides and the important physical changes brought about by different agricultural practices. Results show that, although these programs as now planned, increase farm income and achieve soil conservation goals, they may adversely affect ground water quality. Also, depending on soil and location characteristics, there are tradeoffs between surface and ground water quality implications. Hence, if these programs are to address water quality problems, the recommended practices must be evaluated for their impact on water quality, particularly in potentially vulnerable areas.     

生态经济学为可持续发展提供理论基础

本文系统论证了生态经济学为可持续发展思想的建立提供理论基础，产邮以下主要观点，可持续发展思想的建立是生态时代的要求，用生态经济学的理论指导建立协调高效的人工生态系统，建立我国资源利用的新方针，从人与自然的关系上深化我国经济改革。     

排污交易政策探讨

排污交易是在市场经济条件下，实施总量控制的有效手段。该文介绍了排污交易的起源和特征，提出适合我国国情的排污交易方法和在福州市实施排污交易的几点思考。