地震灾害应急物流配送系统模型优化方法研究

为合理选择应急物流配送中心地址,提高应急管理能力,基于地震灾害风险评价数据,通过ArcGIS平台形成Voronoi图,可视化表达地震应急准备分区方案并进行应急物流中心预选址;在考虑需求权重情况下,构建应急物流配送中心优化选址模型,通过LINGO软件编程求解得出基于震灾应急准备分区的应急物流配送中心选址方案,并以A市为例,通过与传统行政区划建设方案进行对比,验证本文选址方案的有效性。研究结果表明：本文选址优化模型综合考虑各方面因素,使服务里程总量减少31.39%,单位服务量提高30.61%,验证选址方案的配送效率与公平性。     

突发性环境污染事故风险管理进展

在介绍突发性环境污染事故的概念、类型与特性的基础上,综述了近年来国内外风险管理的进展。要对突发性环境污染事故进行风险管理,需要有组织的风险管理体系和风险管理计划。风险管理计划应当包括危害的风险评价、预防和应急反应三部分内容。文中详细阐述了突发性环境污染事故的预防、应急处理与对策、善后处理与影响评价的主要内容和方法。     

The Dakota Access Pipeline and the Breakdown of Participatory Processes in Environmental Decision-Making

This article employs a close reading of documents related to the permitting process for the Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL) and ensuing legal battle in order to argue that extant regulatory frameworks for environmental decision-making are insufficient to promote environmental justice outcomes. By analyzing the US Army Corps of Engineer's responses to comments made during the public comment phase of the NEPA evaluation of the DAPL, I argue that regulatory frameworks may exacerbate environmental justice concerns by incentivizing decision makers to prioritize justification for their decisions and avoiding legal battles over meaningfully engaging with communities. This finding leads me to call for more engagement with energy democracy's orientation toward community-led processes as a corrective to current regulatory systems. This article expands on extant work in environmental communication by more thoroughly investigating the flaws in extant regulatory frameworks and calling for a perspectival shift in environmental decision-making.     

基于证据理论的城市防洪应急预案评估研究

城市防洪工作的重要工具之一就是城市防洪应急预案,它的有效性直接关乎防洪工作的效率。以城市防洪应急预案为研究对象,建立其有效性评估体系。重点研究了评估体系中响应措施的合理性评估,并基于证据理论来解决评估中的不确定性问题。最后以《武汉市洪山区防洪预案》进行实例分析,验证了证据理论应用于响应措施合理性评估的可行性。     

美国金县综合应急预案对我国城镇应急预案的启示

为了提高我国城镇应急预案的针对性和可操作性,减少我国城镇突发事件带来的损失,对美国金县综合应急预案进行了研究。通过分析总结金县应急预案的内容和特点,得出我国城镇能够通过完善应急组织架构和明确相应职责,加强风险评估和脆弱性分析,提升应急通信能力,通过立法明确志愿者参与救援权责和深化突发事件风险教育等方面完善应急预案的启示。     

基于电网防台抗台系统的应急主题数据仓库分析与设计

为解决电网防台抗台过程中缺少应急辅助支持的问题,提出基于现有电网防台抗台系统中的业务数据,采用星型结构分析与设计“台风气象灾情”、“电网因灾（台风）损失”、“电网因灾（台风）应急资源投入”等应急主题数据仓库,充分利用、开发相关的数据探查与ETL工具实现相关的数据集成,构建相关应急主题下的多维数据模型,并开展联机分析处理（OLAP）研究工作,为相关企业和部门开展电网应急管理工作提供应急辅助支持。     

化工园区应急物资需求决策模型研究

为实现化工园区高效应急救援,针对化工园区应急物资需求及特点,从基本物资需求量、应急物资消耗量、应急物资损耗量3个方面,构建化工园区应急物资需求优先级指标体系;基于TOPSIS方法对各应急物资需求进行重要性分级排序,设计求解出应急物资需求量的BP神经网络预测模型。以化工园区历史事故案例进行分析,结果表明,BP神经网络应急物资需求预测结果和实际应急物资需求量相差很小,结合TOPSIS方法后的应急物资需求分级决策方案,能有效辅助应急物资的组织和调度,最大限度地发挥应急效用。     

Forward collision warning system impact

Abstract

Objective: The objective of this research is to use historical crash data to evaluate the potential benefits of both high- and low-speed automatic emergency braking (AEB) with forward collision warning (FCW) systems.

Methods: Crash data from the NHTSA’s NASS–General Estimates System (GES) and Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) databases were categorized to classify crashes by the speed environment, as well as to identify cases where FCW systems would be applicable.

Results: Though only about 19% of reported crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph, approximately 32% of all serious or fatal crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph. The percentage of crashes where FCW systems would be relevant has remained remarkably constant, varying between about 21 and 26% from 2002 to 2015. In 2-vehicle fatal crashes where one rear-ends the other, the fatality rates are actually higher in the struck vehicle (33%) than the striking vehicle (26%). The disparity is even greater when considering size–class differences, such as when a light truck rear-ends a passenger car (15 vs. 42% fatality rates, respectively).

Conclusions: NHTSA and the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) proposed the Automatic Emergency Braking Initiative in 2015, which is intended to make AEB (also called crash-imminent braking) with FCW systems standard on nearly all new cars by September 2022. Twenty automakers representing 99% of the U.S. auto market voluntarily committed to the initiative. Though the commitment to safety is laudable, the AEB component of the agreement only covers low-speed AEB systems, with the test requirements set to 24?mph or optionally as low as 12?mph. The test requirements for the FCW component of the agreement include 2 tests that begin at 45?mph. Only 21% of relevant serious injury or fatal accidents occur in environments at speeds under 24?mph, whereas about 22% of serious or fatal crashes occur in environments with speeds greater than 45?mph. This means that the AEB with FCW systems as agreed upon will cover only 21% of serious or fatal crashes and will not cover 22% of serious or fatal crashes. Because these systems are protective not only for the occupants of the vehicle where they are installed but also other vehicles on the roads, the data indicate that these systems should be a standard feature on all cars for high-speed as well as low-speed environments for the greatest social benefit.     

Injury Severity Score alone predicts mortality when compared to EMS scene time and transport time for motor vehicle trauma patients who arrive alive to hospital

ABSTRACT

Objective: This study aims to identify the association, if any, between prehospital scene time, prehospital transport time, and Injury Severity Score (ISS) with in-hospital mortality.

Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on patients at least 18 years of age who arrived to the hospital alive via emergency medical services (EMS) after a motor vehicle collision (MVC) between 1992 and 2016. These patients were divided into groups based on minutes spent at the scene and in transport. The ISS of the in-hospital mortalities, as well as the entire patient sample for each time frame, was collected. Patients without documented scene time, transport time, or ISS were excluded.

Results: Four thousand one hundred ninety-four patients were captured when analyzing scene time, though only 3,980 met inclusion criteria. In addition, 4,177 patients were captured when analyzing transport time, though only 3,979 met inclusion criteria. Scene time and transport time were not statistically significant predictors of in-hospital mortality (P = .31 and P = .458, respectively). ISS was found to be a statistically significant predictor of in-hospital mortality (P < .001).

Conclusions: ISS predicts mortality independent of scene time or transport time for patients who arrive to the hospital alive following an MVC at Guthrie Robert Packer Hospital. Limitations of our study include inability to capture prehospital deaths and inability to correlate ISS with prehospital injury severity scores.     

环保监测应急系统的发展及应用分析

随着我国社会的不断发展,人们生活水平的不断提高,人们对于资源的索取以及对环境的污染、生态的破坏都愈发的严重,雾霾、酸雨等极端、恶劣的天气频发,对人们的日常生活带来了严重的影响。近些年我国也逐渐开始意识到环境污染的严重后果,开始采取相应的环保监测以及环保措施来保护我们赖以生存的环境,而环保监测应急系统的运用就是其中之一。本文就针对环保监测应急系统在我国的发展以及应用进行了分析,并就其存在的问题以及注意事项进行了阐述,旨在为我国创造良好的生态环境提供一点帮助。