浙江省大气重污染应急预警

通过比较多地省级及城市的大气重污染预案和分析浙江省大气重污染预警工作情况及一次大气重污染预警案例来研究省级大气重污染应急。结果表明,省级应急预案在机构组织和职责、预警分级以及应急措施3个方面有需完善的地方,并且在区域应急联动方面的内容相对缺乏。通过对问题的探讨,建议可以通过构建畅通应急信息交流渠道、设定符合地区污染特征的预警分级以及科学安排多城市应急联动减排等方式来进一步完善省级大气重污染应急预案。     

小群体行为作用下的地铁站疏散模型研究

为研究小群体行为作用对地铁站突发事件人群疏散效率的影响,基于社会力模型理论和智能体技术,构建地铁站人群疏散模型。分析小群体趋向性、协调一致性等行为特征,运用社会力模型理论,计算小群体成员移动速度;量化小群体行为对群体内部成员作用大小,修正成员期望速度,确定人群疏散速度;以某地铁站火灾事故为例,分别模拟单人疏散场景和混合疏散场景。研究结果表明:混合疏散场景仿真时间比单人疏散场景仿真时间延长12.29%,平均绕行距离比单人疏散增加38.8%,小群体行为降低了地铁站突发事件人群疏散效率。     

Development of injury risk models to guide CT evaluation in the emergency department after motor vehicle collisions

Abstract

Objective: The clinical evaluation of motor vehicle collision (MVC) victims is challenging and commonly relies on computed tomography (CT) to detect internal injuries. CT scans are financially expensive and each scan exposes the patient to additional ionizing radiation with an associated, albeit low, risk of cancer. Injury risk prediction based on regression modeling has been to be shown to be successful in estimating Injury Severity Scores (ISSs). The objective of this study was to (1) create risk models for internal injuries of occupants involved in MVCs based on CT body regions (head, neck, chest, abdomen/pelvis, cervical spine, thoracic spine, and lumbar spine) and (2) evaluate the performance of these risk prediction models to predict internal injury.

Methods: All Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2008 injury codes were classified based on which CT body region would be necessary to scan in order to make the diagnosis. Cases were identified from the NASS-CDS. The NASS-CDS data set was queried for cases of adult occupants who sought medical care and for which key crash characteristics were all present. Forward stepwise logistic regression was performed on data from 2010–2014 to create models predicting risk of internal injury for each CT body region. Injury risk for each region was grouped into 5 levels: very low (<2%), low (2–5%), medium (5–10%), high (10–20%), and very high (20%). The models were then tested using weighted data from 2015 in order to determine whether injury rates fell within the predicted risk level.

Results: The inclusion and exclusion criteria identified 5,477 cases in the NASS-CDS database. Cases from 2010–2014 were used for risk modeling (n?=?4,826). Seven internal injury risk models were created based on the CT body regions using data from 2010–2014. These models were tested against data from 2015 (n?=?651). In all CT body regions, the majority of occupants fell in the very low or low predicted injury rate groups, except for the head. On average, 57% of patients were classified as very low risk and 15% as low risk for each body region. In most cases the actual rate of injury was within the predicted injury risk range. The 95% confidence interval overlapped with predicting injury risk range in all cases.

Conclusion: This study successfully demonstrated the ability for internal injury risk models to accurately identify occupants at low risk for internal injury in individual body regions. This represents a step towards incorporating telemetry data into a clinical tool to guide physicians in the use of CT for the evaluation of MVC victims.     

基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评研究

为研究民用机场消防指挥员决策能力,考虑测评指标分为定性与定量2类,且指标存在模糊性的特点,建立基于云模型的民用机场消防指挥员决策能力测评方法。根据相关规章规定、专家意见和问卷调查结果,确定测评指标体系,并依据云模型原理建立定性到定量的测评转换模型,将指标的定性测评转化为直观的定量评价;最后,根据云模型的期望、熵、超熵,评价民用机场消防指挥员决策能力水平。研究结果表明:利用基于云模型原理构建的定性与定量测评转换模型进行决策能力测评,所得测评结果能够体现评价指标模糊性和随机性的特点,评估结果更加直观且贴近实际情况。     

基于电力线载波的LED消防指示灯的设计与实现

设计的基于电力线载波的LED消防指示灯系统包括上位机、电力线载波模块、单片机最小系统和LED点阵显示模组等部分,采用电力线载波通信的方式将信号借助消防应急电源的专线传输到上位机系统,降低了施工的材料成本和人工成本。实验结果表明,系统可以动态显示,光流引导,有利于被困人员的识别,符合火灾现场被困人员的心理状态和思维能力,可以作为智能消防、应急、疏散控制系统的重要组成部分,集成到智慧消防系统解决方案中。     

突发水灾害事件应急管理合作中的演化博弈分析

为了探讨突发水灾害应急管理中的合作问题,构建突发水灾害应急管理的异质主体网络体系,分析各异质主体间的博弈关系。在此基础上,考察异质应急主体行为选择——合作与不合作行为对应急合作达成的演化影响,将演化博弈理论应用到水灾害应急管理中,建立相应的演化博弈模型,进行稳定性分析,并对主体博弈形成的动力系统进行系统仿真。最后,根据演化博弈结果得出,中央政府加强监督管理和对不合作主体从重处罚将有利于良好合作秩序的达成。     

The challenges of participatory and systemic environmental management: from aspiration to implementation

Participatory and systemic approaches in environmental management are advocated as they are thought to lead to more equitable, resilient and integrated solutions. However, there is mounting evidence that, in practice, these approaches are exceedingly challenging and do not always lead to improved environmental management, or greater community engagement. To better understand the challenges facing organisations wishing to use these approaches, we monitored the dynamics of a decision-making process on an estate. We observed an oscillating pattern of widening and narrowing participation and integration. Three key factors created tensions with the estate's desires to increase community participation and follow a more systemic approach: stewardship values, organisational capacity and unresolved core issues. A combination of these tensions and other factors led to the early cessation of a series of planned participatory workshops. We conclude that academia needs to take these challenges seriously by placing greater emphasis on multi-dimensional, transdisciplinary analysis of such transformation processes.     

垂管体制下曲靖市环境应急监测现状及发展思路

简述了曲靖市环境应急监测能力建设现状,针对曲靖市生态环境应急监测在垂改后出现的工作职能与事权划分尚未明确清晰、预警研判滞后、队伍建设弱化、人事管理体制未建立、应急监测如何进行协调与衔接等问题和短板,提出了建设我国西部示范性的“州市级特色环境应急监测基地”发展思路,追踪环境应急监测新技术发展方向,为今后在垂管体制下推进州市级环境应急监测能力发展提供借鉴。     

长江船舶苯酚泄漏污染事故的应急监测

从方案制定、监测布点、现场工作等方面,阐述长江南通段船舶苯酚泄漏污染事故的应急监测工作。通过案例分析并比对国内其他类似事故,明确该类型事故具有污染源不确定性强、污染扩散速度快、污染影响范围广等特点。应对类似事件,通过建立应急统一指挥中心、现场应急监测实验室、模型预测等技术手段,可以提高应急监测的科学性和主动性。     

高校突发事件应急救援志愿者救援模式研究

为有效应对高校突发事件,迅速开展应急救援,通过理论分析、数学建模及现场实验法研究应急救援志愿者救援能力,构建以学生为第1响应人的高校突发事件应急救援模式.结果表明:基于理论与实验方法建立的应急救援队伍能够实现有效应急救援,具有现实可行性,可为高校应急救援志愿者队伍建设提供理论依据.