社会资本对山区居民山洪灾害应急避险能力的影响研究*

为研究社会资本对山区居民应急避险能力的影响,在广泛调研的基础上采用结构方程模型分析社会资本与山区居民应急避险能力各要素之间的作用关系。结果表明:个人网络对避险知识和避险意识有显著的正向影响,对避险行为影响不显著;信任与避险知识和避险意识呈显著的正向影响,而与避险行为呈反向影响,但信任可以通过避险知识和避险意识间接正向影响避险行为;互惠对避险知识影响不显著,但互惠与避险意识和避险行为存在显著的正向关系;避险知识和避险意识对避险行为呈显著正向影响,其中避险意识对避险行为影响更为显著。因此可以通过增加山区居民社会资本的方式提高山区居民山洪灾害应急避险能力。     

基于改进模体方法的国家应急组织合作网络基元比较

为分析和比较应对非常规突发事件过程中,由不同类型组织个体及其不同频次合作关系构成的应急复杂组织网络的微观结构特征,研究运用表征个体差异和关系强弱的改进模体分析方法,以中国和美国国家应急组织合作网络为例,比较分析其基元同构与异构特征。结果表明:中美应急组织系统不同类型的应急主导和支持组织构成的主要合作模式具有同构性,但子图结构数量分布具有异构性;考虑个体间关系频次差异,中美应急组织网络基元合作模式具有形式同构但相对数量分布异构的特征;比较而言,美国合作网络为分布式、分权化和关系型基元构型,中国合作网络具有集中式、集权化和契约型基元特征。     

突发事件下安全舆情的传播与演变——以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例

为明确突发事件安全舆情传播与演变路径,提高企业防控突发事件安全舆情传播风险能力,降低衍生灾害发生概率,在文献分析及事故致因理论基础上,构建突发事件安全舆情传播与演变过程的系统动力学（SD）模型,并运用Vensim软件对以江苏响水天嘉宜化工有限公司“3.21”特别重大爆炸事故为例进行仿真实验,模拟安全舆情传播与演变动态过程。结果表明:突发事件安全舆情传播与演变主要受事件自身、媒体、相关企业监管层、相关企业执行层4个主体的共同影响,其中事件自身因素起效时间最早,相关企业监管层影响作用最大、维持时间最持久,相关企业执行层影响最直接。     

基于复合治理理论的基层应急管理模式优化*

为弥补传统基层应急管理模式的短板,解决信息壁垒、协调困难、公众参与不足等问题。从复合性视角出发,阐述复合治理理论内涵,探讨复合治理与应急管理在主体、思维、过程、空间、目标上的契合性,并进一步分析基层应急管理的现实背景和困境,进而构建基于复合治理理论的基层应急管理模式,阐明模式基本结构和工作流程,最终提出理念树立、平台搭建、机制保障、队伍建设、制度安排、文化营造、技术支撑方面的优化路径。结果表明:复合治理理论的应用可以加强基层应急管理能力,促进多元主体协同共治。     

Introducing a multi-variate classification method: Risky driving acceptance among different heterogeneous driver sub-cultures

Introduction: Heterogeneous driving populations with many different origins are likely to have various sub-cultures that comprise of drivers with shared driver characteristics, most likely with dissimilar traffic safety cultures. An innovative methodology in traffic safety research is introduced which is beneficial for large datasets with multiple variables, making it useful for the multi-variate classification of drivers, driving attitudes and/or (risky) driving behaviours. Method: With the application of multidimensional scaling analysis (MDS), this study explores traffic safety culture in the State of Qatar using a questionnaire and investigates the similarity patterns between the questionnaire items, aiming to classify attitudes towards risky driving behaviours into themes. MDS is subsequently applied to classify drivers within a heterogeneous driving sample into sub-cultures with shared driver characteristics and different risky driving attitudes. Results: Results show that acceptance of speeding is highest among the young Arabic students and acceptance of distraction and drivers’ negligence such as phone use and not wearing a seatbelt is highest among male Arab drivers. Acceptance of extreme risk-taking like intoxicated driving and red-light running is highest among South-Asian business drivers. Conclusion: It is important and practical to understand risky behavioural habits among sub-cultures and thereby focussing on groups of drivers instead of individuals, because groups are easier to approach and drivers within sub-cultures are found to influence each other. By indicating which groups of drivers are most likely to perform specific risky driving themes, it is possible to target these groups and effectively emphasise certain subsets of risky driving behaviours during training or traffic safety education. Practical Applications: This study provides guidance for the improvement of driver education and targeted traffic safety awareness campaigns, intending to make changes to attitudes and habits within specific driver sub-cultures with the aim to improve traffic safety on the longer term.     

Mapping the public first-aid training landscape: a scoping review

While the public can play a vital role in saving lives during emergencies, intervention is only effective if people have the skills, confidence, and willingness to help. This review employs a five-stage framework to systematically analyse first aid and emergency helping literature from 22 countries (predominately in Asia, Australia, Europe, and the United States). The review covers 54 articles that investigate public first-aid knowledge and uptake of first-aid training (40); public confidence in first-aid skills and willingness to help during an emergency (21); and barriers to or enablers of learning first aid and delivering first aid in an emergency (25). The findings identify high levels of perceived knowledge, confidence, and willingness to help, supporting the contention that the public can play a vital role during an emergency. However, the findings also point to low uptake levels, low tested skill-specific knowledge, and barriers to learning first aid and helping, indicating that the first-aid training landscape is in need of improvement.     

唐岛湾网箱养殖区沉积物-水界面溶解无机氮的扩散通量

2004-08～2005-05分4个航次对唐岛湾网箱养殖区的10个站的沉积物间隙水和上覆水中的溶解无机氮营养盐（NH⁺₄-Ｎ、NO^-₃-Ｎ、NO^-₂-Ｎ）进行了现场调查, 并使用Fick第一定理对该海区沉积物-水界面溶解无机氮的扩散通量进行了估算.结果表明,网箱养殖区的上覆水和沉积物间隙水中溶解无机氮均以NO^-₃-Ｎ为主,分别占溶解无机氮总量的73.34%和61.45%;上覆水中溶解无机氮（DIN）和NO^-₃-Ｎ含量的季节变化趋势一致,在2004-10达到峰值,NH⁺₄-Ｎ的季节变化稍有不同;间隙水中溶解无机氮（DIN）和NO^-₃-Ｎ、NH⁺₄-Ｎ的变化趋势一致,表现为从5月份到8月份含量逐渐增加,到10月份达到最大,然后到次年2月份又减少;上覆水和间隙水中NO^-₂-Ｎ的含量随养殖进程表现为一个逐步积累的过程.NH⁺₄-Ｎ、NO^-₃-Ｎ和NO^-₂-Ｎ在沉积物-海水界面上的扩散通量分别为5.46、-5.04、8.71 μmol/（m²·d）,NO^-₂-Ｎ的扩散释放对唐岛湾网箱养殖区的水环境质量影响较大.     

高效降解微囊藻毒素食酸戴尔福特菌USTB-04的培养与活性研究

主要针对筛选的高效降解微囊藻毒素(microcystins,MCs)的食酸戴尔福特菌USTB-04(Delftia acidovorans,DA菌)的培养方法进行了研究.结果表明,以葡萄糖、甘油和乙醇作为惟一碳源时,与氯化铵和尿素相比,酵母粉是支持DA菌生长的较好氮源.在以酵母粉作为惟一氮源时,与甘油和乙醇相比,葡萄糖是提高DA菌生长速度的较好碳源.进一步研究显示,以葡萄糖和酵母粉作为碳源和氮源时,可以支持DA菌的快速稳定生长,但在以甘油和酵母粉作为碳源和氮源时.培养出的DA菌降解MCs的比活性最高.此研究在培养高细胞浓度DA菌作为生物催化剂用于饮用水源中的MCs去除方面具有重要意义.     

玉米浸泡液制备苏云金杆菌生物杀虫剂的影响因素研究

以玉米淀粉生产过程中的浸泡液为培养基,摇瓶发酵培养苏云金杆菌生物杀虫剂,通过一系列单因子试验,考察了不同培养条件(种子液的种龄、接种量、浸泡液的含固率、初始pH值、摇床转速、发酵温度及发酵时间)对苏云金杆菌在玉米浸泡液中的生长(菌数增长与芽孢形成)以及发酵液的生物毒效的影响.研究表明,在最佳摇瓶培养条件(种子液种龄10 h,接种量2%,浸泡液含固量3%,初始pH值7.0～7.5,摇床转速200 r/min,发酵温度30℃)下发酵48 h,活菌数和活芽孢数分别可达到7.9×108 CFU/mL和5.5×108 CFU/mL,毒力效价为698.0 IU/μL.本试验可为生物农药的工业化生产提供实用参数.     

基于模糊层次分析法的应急能力评估方法探讨

对危险行业的安全生产事故应急能力进行安全评估,可以持续改进应急管理工作,提高事故应急能力的总体水平。作为综合性的安全评估方法,层次分析法在安全研究的多个领域中得到了应用。通过介绍安全生产事故应急管理能力及其评估要求,分析国内外应急能力评估的现状,提出了应急能力评估体系建立的总体思路。论述了事故应急能力评估指标集的建立方法和基于模糊层次综合评价法的评估模型构建方案,初步建立起事故应急管理能力评估方法。