中国农业面源污染与经济发展关系的实证研究

把握现阶段我国经济发展过程中农业面源污染压力的演变规律,是制定农业可持续发展政策的基本依据。运用1998~2006年我国31个省（市、自治区）面板数据模型对经济发展与农业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)关系进行实证研究。选取各省化肥投入密度、农药投入密度、畜禽粪尿排泄物密度作为度量农业面污染源排放量的指标,选取各省人均国民生产总值作为经济发展衡量指标。研究结果表明,我国农业面源污染源排放量与经济增长总体上具有显著的倒“U”型曲线关系,三类污染源与人均GDP均处于曲线上升阶段,自发到达农业面源污染减排拐点还需较长时间。政府应强化农业环境政策的干预力度,加大对农业面源污染的治理力度。     

煤矿企业安全文化影响因素的实证研究

煤矿企业安全文化以煤矿企业安全观念为核心,安全制度、安全行为与安全物态围绕安全观念相互影响交错融合,研究员工安全需要、安全意识、社会安全价值观、沟通系统、社会安全需要、教育培训系统、安全事故、行业特点、国家安全法规、管理参与、奖惩系统、组织承诺、生产力发展水平、社会经济文化等因素对煤矿企业安全文化系统的关系,结果表明,除员工授权外,其他因素对煤矿企业安全文化系统都有一定的影响,从而提出相应的政策建议。     

Using Measurements of Nitrogen Oxides to Estimate the Emission Controls Required to Meet the UK Nitrogen Dioxide Standard

In this paper we introduce a new method of analysing the relationship between nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) concentrations using data from the UK National Air Quality Archive. The study includes analyses of measurements from two different types of site in London, a kerbside site: Cromwell Rd, and three background sites: Bridge Place, London Bloomsbury and West London, over several years (1991–7). The data in some years showed that hourly NO₂ concentrations exceeded the UK Standard of 150 ppb. Data were binned, averaged, and polynomials fitted at each site. Analysis of the resulting polynomials was used to estimate reductions in NO_x emission required to achieve the National Air Quality Strategy Objective. Examination of the empirical ratio NO₂:NO_x (the 'yield') gives an indication of the sensitivity of the NO₂ to NO_x controls and the amount of NO₂ that would arise from modelled values of total oxides of nitrogen. The response of NO₂ to emission changes is very non-linear, implying 30–45% controls on NO_x may be required.     

Understanding Human Development Potentials and Demands for Greenhouse Gas Emissions:with Empirical Analysis using time series and cross-sectional data

Based on an investigation of the meaning of development, the neo-classical economic approach to development, and the post-welfarist theory of development, this paper proposes a conceptual framework for understanding human development potentials, while undertaking empirical analysis using cross-sectional and time series data on human development. Human development is associated with basic necessities for subsistence, the quality of life, and political and civil rights, in addition to income indicators. Our analysis suggests that the concept of human development potentials has two dimensions: the rights of development and limits to human development. Both are largely ignored in the neoclassical theory of development. However, human development is not unbounded, which approaches to a relatively fixed constant at given economic, technological and institutional conditions. This conceptual understanding is supported by results from the empirical examination of the relationships between demands for carbon emis     

出口贸易可持续发展:理论内涵、评价模型及经验研究

在人文贸易主义价值取向逐渐兴起的背景下，对外贸易可持续发展观越来越受到关注。选择以出口贸易可持续发展作为研究对象，在对出口贸易可持续发展内涵进行理论阐释的基础上尝试建立测度一国出口贸易可持续发展水平的指标体系和评价模型，最后对中国出口贸易可持续发展水平进行经验研究。结果显示1985-2003年中国出口可持续发展水平大致呈现出曲折缓慢上升趋势，通过灰色聚类可将各年份出口贸易可持续发展水平划分为优、良、中、劣四等。在多数年份中国出口社会经济效益的获取要以同期环境质量下降和资源过度消耗作为代价，且中国出口规模的持续加速上升并未带来出口经济效益水平的提升，这主要源于出口贸易条件的恶化，因此需警惕在中国出现“贫困化出口增长”问题。     

综放支承压力峰值位置的理论及回归分析

鉴于综放支承压力峰值位置对工作面安全生产影响的重要性,对支承压力峰值位置的确定进行了研究分析。其中煤体硬度、煤层厚度及工作面推进速度为支承压力峰值位置的主要影响因素。采用相似模拟实验及理论分析方法研究各因素对支承压力峰值位置的影响规律及其函数关系。最后应用回归分析方法得到了支承压力峰值位置确定的经验公式,并将其进行了实际应用。结果表明:上述3个影响因素对支承压力峰值位置的影响均为非线性的;支承压力峰值位置与煤体硬度近似地满足反比关系;支承压力峰值位置与开采煤层厚度、工作面推进速度满足指数函数关系;通过对这3个因素的回归分析,可以确定支承压力的峰值位置。     

基于HHT方法的矿井瓦斯体积分数预测

为有效分析煤矿瓦斯监测数据以实现较准确的瓦斯浓度预测,研究应用希尔伯特-黄变换(HHT)方法进行瓦斯浓度时间序列分析与预测的方法。应用经验模态分解(EMD)方法将瓦斯浓度时间序列分解成不同频率的固有模态函数(IMF)分量的叠加,以获取瓦斯浓度时间序列的瞬时特征;通过Hilbert变换求得各IMF分量的瞬时频率,依据各IMF分量瞬时频率的均值将分解得到的IMF划分成较高频和低频2类新的分量,选取适合于各分量特征的预测模型分别进行预测,以消除局部随机性对预测精度的影响,结合自回归(AR)、径向基函数(RBF)神经网络和支持向量机(SVM)3种预测模型实现瓦斯浓度预测。实例分析表明:应用该方法所得预测结果比较准确,降低了预测复杂度,提高了预测精度。     

中国机动车行驶里程分布规律

机动车行驶里程是计算机动车尾气排放量的一个重要参数.对全国数百个地级及以上城市不同车龄的机动车(包括轻型客车、公交车、出租车和摩托车)行驶里程进行了调查.结果表明:除公交车外,其他机动车的累积行驶里程均随车龄而呈现对数递减性,即车龄越长机动车的累积行驶里程增加越慢,年使用率越小;某类型机动车车队的年均行驶里程与调查基准年的各车龄机动车的保有量相关;提出了轻型客车年行驶里程和车龄的经验公式,并得到2007年轻型客车的年均行驶里程为2.691×104km.     

Variation characteristics of atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide in summertime at a coastal site in the South China Sea

● Diurnal patterns of CH₄ and CO₂ are clearly extracted using EEMD. ● CH₄ and CO₂ show mid-morning high and evening low patterns during sea breezes. ● Wind direction significantly modulates the diurnal variations in CH₄ and CO₂. Methane (CH₄) and carbon dioxide (CO₂) are the two most important greenhouse gases (GHGs). To examine the variation characteristics of CH₄ and CO₂ in the coastal South China Sea, atmospheric CH₄ and CO₂ measurements were performed in Bohe (BH), Guangdong, China, in summer 2021. By using an adaptive data analysis method, the diurnal patterns of CH₄ and CO₂ were clearly extracted and analysed in relation to the sea breeze (SB) and land breeze (LB), respectively. The average concentrations of CH₄ and CO₂ were 1876.91 ± 31.13 ppb and 407.99 ± 4.24 ppm during SB, and 1988.12 ± 109.92 ppb and 421.54 ± 14.89 ppm during LB, respectively. The values of CH₄ and CO₂ during SB basically coincided with the values and trends of marine background sites, showing that the BH station could serve as an ideal site for background GHG monitoring and dynamic analysis. The extracted diurnal variations in CH₄ and CO₂ showed sunrise high and sunset low patterns (with peaks at 5:00–7:00) during LB but mid-morning high and evening low patterns (with peaks at 9:00) during SB. The diurnal amplitude changes in both CH₄ and CO₂ during LB were almost two to three times those during SB. Wind direction significantly modulated the diurnal variations in CH₄ and CO₂. The results in this study provide a new way to examine the variations in GHGs on different timescales and can also help us gain a better understanding of GHG sources and distributions in the South China Sea.     

Do Energy‐Based PET Models Require More Input Data than Temperature‐Based Models? — An Evaluation at Four Humid FluxNet Sites

It is well established that wet environment potential evapotranspiration (PET) can be reliably estimated using the energy budget at the canopy or land surface. However, in most cases the necessary radiation measurements are not available and, thus, empirical temperature‐based PET models are still widely used, especially in watershed models. Here we question the presumption that empirical PET models require fewer input data than more physically based models. Specifically, we test whether the energy‐budget‐based Priestley‐Taylor (P‐T) model can reliably predict daily PET using primarily air temperature to estimate the radiation fluxes and associated parameters. This method of calculating PET requires only daily minimum and maximum temperature, day of the year, and latitude. We compared PET estimates using directly measured radiation fluxes to PET calculated from temperature‐based radiation estimates at four humid AmeriFlux sites. We found good agreement between P‐T PET calculated from measured radiation fluxes and P‐T PET determined via air temperature. In addition, in three of the four sites, the temperature‐based radiation approximations had a stronger correlation with measured evapotranspiration (ET) during periods of maximal ET than fully empirical Hargreaves, Hamon and Oudin methods. Of the three fully empirical models, the Hargreaves performed the best. Overall, the results suggest that daily PET estimates can be made using a physically based approach even when radiation measurements are unavailable.