基于PSR模型的城市生态安全评价与贡献度研究——以铜川市为例

以铜川市为例进行城市生态安全评价和指标分析,采用压力-状态-响应模型和层次分析法构建出含有项目、因素、指标的铜川市生态安全评价体系。通过生态不安全指数定量表示城市的生态安全状况,对铜川市2014-2016年的生态安全状况进行了综合评价,并计算分析了各指标对城市总体生态不安全指数的贡献度。结果表明,铜川市的生态安全处于“临界安全”状态,并呈现逐渐向好的发展趋势。人均灌溉农田面积、地表水环境质量、环境空气质量和环保投资占GDP比例对铜川市生态不安全指数贡献度较大,应给予重视。     

基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法

为了对风险形式多样化的电网进行全面客观的评估,提出了一种基于博弈赋权和灰色关联投影的电网综合风险评估方法。首先,通过分析现代电网面临的风险因素,从网架结构、运行状态、能源供给3个方面重新构建了风险评估指标体系;其次,基于博弈赋权模型融合指标主观权值与客观权值,最大化消除了单一赋权法造成的权值偏差;然后,通过灰色关联投影模型计算风险指标样本在理想解上的投影,并以风险指标样本对负理想解的优属度来表征电网综合风险大小;最后,通过案例分析验证了所提方法的有效性和正确性。研究所得电网综合风险评估结果具有合理性和可靠性,对电网调度规划决策的形成具有一定的指导作用。     

基于模糊Petri网的城市突发性燃气短缺应急能力评估

为了有效地降低在城市突发性燃气短缺应急能力评估过程中应急能力影响因素的不确定性和模糊性对评估结果的影响,提出基于模糊Petri网的城市突发性燃气短缺应急能力评估方法。通过分析城市突发性燃气短缺应急事前-事中-事后过程的影响因素,根据评估准则构建出1个包括5个二级指标和26个三级指标的应急能力评估指标体系;针对评估指标体系复杂且变迁的权重值缺乏客观性等问题,引入模糊推理算子与层次分析法,采取定性与定量相结合的方法对评估体系进行应急能力评估。实例仿真结果表明,与传统的评估方法相比,利用模糊Petri网对应急能力评估的结果更加准确和科学。     

Restructured frame‐of‐reference training improves rating accuracy

The use of heuristic judgments is prevalent in organizations and negatively impacts accurate employee assessments. To minimize the negative impact of heuristic judgments (i.e., anchoring and adjustment), we aim to improve rating accuracy by restructuring frame‐of‐reference (FOR) training. We conducted five studies (N = 1,143) using different samples (three including participants with hiring experience), training environments (onsite and online), and rating contexts (evaluations of sales representatives, teachers, contract negotiation specialists, and retail store managers). Across the five studies, the average improvement in rating accuracy was at least twice as large for restructured FOR (vs. control) training as it was for typical FOR (vs. control) training; the difference in rating accuracy between restructured and typical FOR training was statistically significant. Furthermore, minimizing the anchoring effect rather than increasing opportunities for rating adjustments improved rating accuracy (Study 4). Finally, restructured FOR training achieved higher criterion validity (i.e., a higher strength of the association between ratings regarding a target and the target's objective performance) than did typical FOR training (Studies 3 and 5). We discuss implications for improving the effectiveness of diverse training programs and the accuracy of judgments in organizations.     

南岳衡山风景名胜区景观资源的调查与评价

景观资源是旅游资源的重要组成因素,本文以自然综合体的南岳衡山为考察对象,对其景观资源进行较详尽的调查,并进行定性和定量的评价,为确定南岳衡山风景名胜区性质、规划提供基础资料.     

我国自然保护区级别划分标准的研究

本文在总结国内外自然保护区级别划分背景的基础上,根据我国自然保护区建设和管理的现状,提出保护区级别划分应遵循的原则,如以定性方法为主,与现行行政体制相一致等。根据这些原则,研究制定了我国自然保护区级别划分的标准。该标准将自然保护区划分为国家级、省级、市级和县级。并对其标准进行了详细描述和定义。此外,本文还对保护区级别划分的依据和确定保护区重要性的评价指标进行了阐述和讨论。此标准的研究对于当前我国自然保护区的建设和规范化管理具有重要的意义。     

Carnivore-Livestock Conflicts: Effects of Subsidized Predator Control and Economic Correlates on the Sheep Industry

Abstract:  Despite the importance of carnivores in terrestrial ecosystems, many nations have implemented well-coordinated, state-funded initiatives to remove predators, largely because of conflicts with humans over livestock. Although these control efforts have been successful in terms of the number of carnivores removed, their effects on the viability of the industries they seek to protect are less understood. I assessed the efficacy of long-term efforts by the U.S. government to improve the viability of the sheep industry by reducing predation losses. I used regression analysis and hierarchical partitioning of a 60-year data set to explore associations among changes in sheep numbers and factors such as predator control effort, market prices, and production costs. In addition, I compared trends in the sheep industry in the western United States, where predator control is subsidized and coyotes ( Canis latrans ) are abundant, with trends in eastern states that lack federally subsidized predator control and that were (1) colonized by coyotes before 1950 or (2) colonized by coyotes between 1950 and 1990. Although control efforts were positively correlated with fluctuations in sheep numbers, production costs and market prices explained most of the model variation, with a combined independent contribution of 77%. Trends in sheep numbers in eastern and western states were highly correlated ( r ≥ 0.942) independent of the period during which they were colonized by coyotes, indicating either that control has been ineffective at reducing predation losses or that factors other than predation account for the declines in both regions. These results suggest that government-subsidized predator control has failed to prevent the decline in the sheep industry and alternative support mechanisms need to be developed if the goal is to increase sheep production and not simply to kill carnivores.     

环境质量的模糊综合评判—灰色关联分析

本文简要分析了环境质量评价中目前广泛应用的各种评价方法与模型。在此基础上提出环境质量综合评判－灰色关联优势分析复合模型，应用于黄山风景区景观生态环境质量的综合评价，取得了满意的结果。     

关于制定我国区域生物多样性中心评价标准的思考

本文针对目前环境保护的热点之一——全球和地区性生物多样性保护,对其中的一个基础理论问题,即区域生物多样性评价标准进行了探索;从理论上对制定这一标准的必要性、可行性、生物多样性的基本内涵、区域生物多样性中心标准的意义及标准制定的原则和依据进行了阐述,并在此基础上提出了我国区域生物多样性中心标准的基本框架。     

福建丰产荔枝园土壤微量元素含量的研究

与我国红壤平均水平相比，福建丰产荔枝园土壤有效态锌、钼及水溶态硼含量较高，而活性锰及有效铜含量较低；土壤全锌、锰、钢量亦较低。在土壤ｐＨ４．５４—８．７６时，ｐＨ值与有效态钼含量呈较显著正相关，而与代换态锰、水溶态硼、有效态铁含量呈显著或极显著负相关。本文初步提出福建荔枝园土壤微量元素含量的适宜指标，可供土壤营养诊断及平衡施肥之参考。