Using slides to test for changes in crown defoliation assessment methods part II: Application of the image analysis system CROCO

We tested whether the semi-automatic program CROCO can replace visual assessments of slides to detect changes in defoliation assessment methods. We randomly selected a series of slides of 24 Norway spruce trees with 220 field assessments made between 1986 and 1995. The slides had been randomly arranged and assessed by three experts without knowledge of the tree number or the year when the slide was taken. Defoliation scores were computed with CROCO. Each tree had thus three different defoliation scores, field assessments, photo assessments and CROCO scores.CROCO scores were less correlated with the field assessments (Spearmans rank correlation: 0.67) than were the slide assessments with the field assessments (0.79–0.83). However, CROCO was not biased against the field scores, while slide assessments systematically underestimated defoliation.In a multi-variate mixed effect model none of the variables tree overlap, tree visibility and light conditions was significant in explaining differences between slide assessors and CROCO scores. The same model applied for the differences from the field scores yielded significant effects for poor light conditions (CROCO and all assessors), for crown overlap (CROCO and one assessor) and for visibility (one assessor). We conclude, therefore, that CROCO can be used to detect past and future changes in assessment methods without bias if poor quality photographs are avoided.     

西藏尼洋河流域果树资源及其开发途径探讨

西藏尼洋河流域果树资源丰富,栽培果树有苹果、梨、桃、李、杏和葡萄等9种和90多个品种;野生果树有7科16属41种,目前利用程度低,开发潜力大。文中提出了该地区果树资源的开发途径,在尼洋河下游和雅鲁藏布江的扎绕乡至派乡之间段的河谷地上形成“Y”字型的水(干)果种植带,建设成为西藏的水(干)果生产基地,并对现有果园改造更新,充分利用野生水果资源,建立果品综合加工厂等以满足西藏市场对水果和果品的需要。     

从非典事件看政府的危机管理制度创新

传染性非典型肺炎一度在世界各地迅速蔓延,是对政府的危机管理制度一次前所未有的严峻考验。这次非典危机也暴露出了我国政府危机管理制度存在的缺陷。我们必须抓住这个契机,进行政府危机管理制度的创新,以不断提升政府的危机管理能力。     

地震类突发事件中的公共财政应急机制

通过对我国地震应急组织体系及财政应对地震类灾害的流程分析,结合国外应对地震类突发事件的成功经验,分析了我国公共财政应对地震类灾害事件中存在的不足,最后通过对应急管理主体机理特征的分析,提出了公共财政应对地震类突发事件的五大机制,即公共财政日常运行机制、震前预警防范机制、震时响应机制、震后恢复重建机制和财政监督检查机制.     

Opportunities for redistributed manufacturing and digital intelligence as enablers of a circular economy

The linear production of consumer goods is characterised by mass manufacture by multinational enterprises and globally dispersed supply chains. The current centralised model has created a distance between the manufacturer and end user, limiting the opportunity for intelligent circular approaches for production and consumption. Through a mixed method approach, opportunities of circularity are explored for the consumer goods sector. The study presents four lenses to analyse three enterprises through a multi-case study approach to explore the potential of digital intelligence and redistributed manufacturing (RDM) as enablers of circular business models. In addition, the study examines whether Discrete Event Simulation can be used to evaluate the circular scenarios identified through quantifying flows of material that determine traditional economic value (cost/tonne). The mixed method approach demonstrates that, a qualitative systemic analysis can reveal opportunities for circularity, gained through implementing ‘digital intelligence’ and distributed models of production and consumption. Furthermore, simulations can provide a quantified evaluation on the effects of introducing circular activities across a supply chain.     

基于硫碳同位素研究南京北郊冬季霾事件中PM2.5来源

2015年12月27日—2016年1月6日,针对南京北郊地区一次霾事件所采PM_(2.5)样品,测定样品中水溶性离子、硫同位素与碳同位素组分含量。水溶性离子研究结果表明:该次霾事件以二次污染为主且移动源占主要地位。硫同位素分析结果表明:硫酸盐的δ~(34)S(SO_4~(2-))值的范围为4.4‰~6.8‰,平均值为5.7‰±0.7‰(n=11),结合该地潜在硫源可知,此次霾事件中硫酸盐气溶胶主要来源为机动车尾气及煤炭燃烧。PM_(2.5)中的δ~(13)C值变化范围为-28.43‰~-24.94‰,平均值为-26.62‰±1.11‰,说明碳质污染物来源主要为机动车尾气、燃煤。此外,硫、碳同位素具有较好的负相关性,结合潜在硫源、碳源可知,2016年1月1日之前,南京北郊地区大气污染源以汽油车尾气排放为主;1月1日之后大气污染源以柴油车尾气和燃煤排放为主。     

稠油热采井管柱失效动态风险分析研究

为保证稠油热采井筒管柱的安全运行,采用故障树与贝叶斯网络相结合的方法开展稠油热采井管柱失效风险分析,应用故障树分析方法定性识别管柱失效诱因,建立稠油热采井管柱失效场景演化模型,并将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络模型,应用贝叶斯网络对管柱失效风险进行定量分析,得出热采井管柱失效的关键致因和管柱失效的动态失效概率,以新疆油田某区块热采井的管柱失效为对象进行了案例分析。研究结果表明,该方法可为稠油热采井管柱失效风险分析及井筒完整性管理提供理论支撑和工程设计参考。     

The Role of Communication in Preparation for Wildland Fire: A Literature Review

Fire regimes are needed for healthy forest ecosystems, but citizens who live parallel to public forests do not always understand or favour the mechanisms land managers use for fire prevention and preparation. One way that land managers and citizens may share concerns and overcome barriers is through effective communication, allowing both parties to adequately prepare for a wildfire event. While collaboration between land managers and citizens has been well studied, the research on communication between citizens and among land managers is less prevalent yet equally important. The lack of research on communication between these parties creates an incomplete picture of the spectrum of communication that takes place in preparation for a wildland fire event. This paper reviews the current literature on communication between and among citizens and land managers before a wildfire event.     

生态环境执法事件本体构建研究和实践应用

结合生态环境执法特点,建立生态环境执法事件本体模型,并对执法不同阶段的相关概念进行统一语义约定.该模型通过时间、环境、对象、动作、状态和语言描述六要素来描述执法事件,通过执法事件类、事件类间关系、事件推理规则和事件实例案件的四元组结构进行执法事件的表达.同时,以某热力工程公司运营的锅炉房超标排放烟气污染物的执法案件构建...     

Use of Maryland Biological Stream Survey Data to Determine Effects of Agricultural Riparian Buffers on Measures of Biological Stream Health

This study was undertaken to determine the importance of riparian buffers to stream ecology in agricultural areas. The original Maryland Biological Stream Survey (MBSS) data set was partitioned to represent agricultural sites in Maryland's Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions. ANOVA, multiple linear regression (MLR), and CART regression tree models were developed using riparian and site catchment landscape characteristics. MBSS data were both stratified by physiographic region and analyzed as a combined data set. All models indicated that land management at the site was not the controlling factor for fish IBIs (FIBI) at that site and, hence, using FIBI to evaluate site-scale factors would not be a prudent procedure. Measures of instream habitat and location in the stream network were the dominant explanatory factors for FIBI models. Both CART and MLR models indicated that forest buffers were influential on benthic IBIs (BIBI). Explanatory variables reflected instream conditions, adjacent landscape influence, and chemistry in the Coastal Plains sites, all of which are relatively site specific. However, for Piedmont sites, hydrologic factors were important, in addition to adjacent landscape influence, and chemistry. Both Coastal Plain and Piedmont CART models identified several hydrologic factors, emphasizing the dominant control of hydrology on the physical habitat index (PHI). Riparian buffers were a secondary influence on PHI in the Coastal Plain, but not in the Piedmont. Between 40% and 70% of the variation in FIBI, BIBI, and PHI was explained by the “easily obtainable” variables available from the MBSS data set. While these are empirical results specific to Maryland, the general findings are of use to other locations where the establishment of forest buffers is considered as an aquatic ecosystem restoration measure.