Forecasting the Risk of Brown Tree Snake Dispersal from Guam: a Mixed Transport-Establishment Model

Abstract:  The brown tree snake ( Boiga irregularis ) is a devastating invader that has ecologically and economically affected Guam and is poised to disperse further. Interdiction efforts are being conducted on Guam and some of the potential receiving sites, but no tools exist for evaluating the potential for snake incursion; thus, the amount of effort that should be invested in protecting particular sites is unknown. We devised a model that predicts the relative risk of establishment of the brown tree snake (BTS) at a given site. To calculate overall risk, we incorporated in the model information on the likelihood of an organism entering the transportation system, avoiding detection, surviving to arrive at another location, and establishing at the receiving end. On the basis of documented rates of snake arrival at receiving sites, the model produced realistic predictions of invasion risk. Model outputs can thus be used to prioritize interdiction efforts to focus on especially vulnerable receiving locations. We provide examples of the utility of the model in evaluating the impacts of changes in transportation parameters. Finally, the model can be used to evaluate the impacts that BTS establishment at an additional site and that creation of a new source of snakes would have. The use of qualitative inputs allows the model to be adapted by substituting data on other invasive species or transportation systems.     

Distribution of Cd,Ck, Pb and Zn in Soil and Vegetation Compartments in Stands of Five Boreal Tree Species in N.E. Sweden

Concentrations and total quantity of cadmium (Cd), cupper (Cu),lead (Pb) and zink (Zn) were determined in biomass and soil compartments in a replicated tree species experiment with 27-yr-old stands growing on former farmland in N.E. Sweden. Sequentialextractions of soil samples were performed in order to estimate the exchangeable and an organically bound fraction of each element. The tree species included were Picea abies (L.)H. Karst., Pinus sylvestris L., Pinus contorta Dougl., Larix sibirica Ledeb., and Betula pendula Roth.Tree species influenced the rate of removal of Cu, Pb and Zn incase of stemwood harvesting, and of Cd, Cu and Zn in the case ofwhole-tree harvesting. B. pendula and P. abies had higher quantities and average concentrations of Zn in the biomass. For all species, >50% of the Zn in the stems was found in the bark. P. abies and L. sibirica had higher quantities of Cu in the biomass than the other species.P. abies and P. contorta had high quantities of Cd inthe biomass in relation to the other species. Branches and stembark contained high concentrations of Cd and Pb in relation to foliage and stemwood. Dead branches had especially high concentrations of Pb. The high accumulation rate of Zn in thebiomass of B. pendula was related to a low exchangeable amount of Zn in the A horizon. In the superficial centimeters ofthe A horizon, a depletion similar to that found for Zn was detected for Cu, whereas for Cd and Pb, no correlations were found between quantities of elements in the trees and element pools in the soil.     

A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF THE CONSTRAINTS TO URBAN STREAM ENHANCEMENTS1

ABSTRACT: The environment surrounding urban streams imposes constraints upon stream enhancement projects. Constraints include bridges, culverts, highways, sewer and water lines, lack of easements, and other floodplain structures. The consequences of failure of these infrastructure constraints can be significant and should be considered in the design process. Fault tree analysis provides a systematic technique for analyzing the interactions of events that could lead to infrastructure failure. A case study of a stream in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows that fault tree analysis can effectively model the interactions between the stream system and the infrastructure constraints and predict the most likely modes of failure. In addition, the relative success of alternative designs and failure mitigation techniques can be assessed using this analysis tool, lending insight into the urban stream enhancement design process. The method could also provide justification in the design permitting process and input for risk assessment.     

基于事故树和模糊层次分析法的飞机火灾事故分析

为了解决飞机火灾事故易发问题、降低事故发生率,以巡航过程中客机发生火灾事故为情境,提出事故树分析法和模糊层次分析法相结合的研究方法。绘制树形图研究人为、机械、环境和管理等方面导致飞机火灾事故发生的途径,构建飞机火灾事故指标体系,结构重要度对指标赋值得出权重值顺序,结果表明:安检和安全培训对飞机火灾事故发生影响最大,空气影响次之,机械故障影响最小。因此,最有效的飞机火灾事故预防途径应从可燃物控制方面着手。     

Consistent Ecological Selectivity through Time in Pacific Island Avian Extinctions

Abstract: Understanding the ecological mechanisms that lead to extinction is a central goal of conservation. Can understanding ancient avian extinctions help to predict extinction risk in modern birds? I used classification trees trained on both paleoecological and historical data from islands across the Pacific to determine the ecological traits associated with extinction risk. Intrinsic traits, including endemism, large body size, and certain feeding guilds, were tightly linked with avian extinction over the past 3500 years. Species ecology and phylogeny were better predictors of extinction risk through time than extrinsic or abiotic factors. Although human impacts on birds and their habitats have changed over time, modern endangered birds share many of the same ecological characteristics as victims of previous extinction waves. My use of detailed predictions of extinction risk to identify species potentially in need of conservation attention demonstrates the utility of paleoecological knowledge for modern conservation biology.     

Effects of Pioneer Tree Species Hyperabundance on Forest Fragments in Northeastern Brazil

Abstract: Despite many studies on fragmentation of tropical forests, the extent to which plant and animal communities are altered in small, isolated forest fragments remains obscure if not controversial. We examined the hypothesis that fragmentation alters the relative abundance of tree species with different vegetative and reproductive traits. In a fragmented landscape (670 km²) of the Atlantic Forest of northeastern Brazil, we categorized 4056 trees of 182 species by leafing pattern, reproductive phenology, and morphology of seeds and fruit. We calculated relative abundance of traits in 50 1‐ha plots in three types of forest configurations: forest edges, small forest fragments (3.4–83.6 ha), and interior of the largest forest fragment (3500 ha, old growth). Although evergreen species were the most abundant across all configurations, forest edges and small fragments had more deciduous and semideciduous species than interior forest. Edges lacked supra‐annual flowering and fruiting species and had more species and stems with drupes and small seeds than small forest fragments and forest interior areas. In an ordination of species similarity and life‐history traits, the three types of configurations formed clearly segregated clusters. Furthermore, the differences in the taxonomic and functional (i.e., trait‐based) composition of tree assemblages we documented were driven primarily by the higher abundance of pioneer species in the forest edge and small forest fragments. Our work provides strong evidence that long‐term transitions in phenology and seed and fruit morphology of tree functional groups are occurring in fragmented tropical forests. Our results also suggest that edge‐induced shifts in tree assemblages of tropical forests can be larger than previously documented.     

FTA -AHP 方法研究及应用

事故树方法由于故障率数据的缺失无法准确确定各基本事件对顶上事件的影响度,工程应用中难以确定安全措施重点与优先顺序。将FTA-AHP结合起来,先用事故树做定性分析,得到最小割集和最小径集,画出等效事故树,然后以事故类型作为目标层,最小割集或最小径集作为准则层,各基本事件作为指标层因素,引入专家打分法构建判断矩阵,获得指标层因素（基本事件）对目标层（事故）的影响顺序,从而得到基本事件对顶上事件影响程度与顺序。将该方法应用于分析发生频率高的建筑工程高处坠落事故,研究结果表明,利用FTA-AHP方法所获得的分析结果更加符合工程实际,高处坠落事故防范重点明确,拟采取的安全措施优先顺序合理,有利于指导制定科学合理的防范高处坠落事故的安全措施。     

Productivity of mosses and organic matter accumulation in the litter of sphagnum larch forest in the permafrost zone

Productivity of the moss cover and necromass accumulation in the litter of a sphagnum larch forest have been estimated on the basis of tree age. It has been shown that the total carbon stock in the litter of a 100-year-old stand, including organic matter not destroyed by fire, exceeds the corresponding value for the tree stand itself by more than an order of magnitude. The accumulation of organic matter on the soil surface inhibits the growth of larch. In particular, this factor impairs hydrothermal conditions in the soil and causes a rise of the permafrost table; as a consequence, lower layers of the root system die off.     

电动轮自卸车事故分析与监控系统研究

电动轮自卸车是集发动机、发电机、电动机、液压系统、电控系统于一体的大型运输车辆,发生安全事故会造成重大损失。笔者对造成事故的人为因素和设备因素进行了研究,并用故障树对电动轮起火事故作了较详细的分析,确定了造成事故的重要因素。在此基础上设计了基于CAN总线的安全监控系统。该系统以单片计算机为核心,采用模块化结构,组成控制器局域网络,进行分布式控制。监控系统由硬件系统和软件系统两部分构成。对发电机、电动机、发动机进行技术状态监测的同时监测驾驶员的疲劳状态和违章操作情况,可以减少由人为因素和设备因素造成的安全生产事故。对大型工矿设备的安全技术保障有一定的借鉴作用。     

二氧化碳灭火系统误喷事故分析及预防措施探讨

根据二氧化碳灭火系统在工程中的实际应用,系统分析灭火系统误喷事故原因,建立引起二氧化碳灭火系统误喷事故树。通过事故树计算各基本事件的结构重要度,确定基本事件对误喷事故产生的影响程度,最后为防止误喷事故发生制定了预防措施。