金华旱涝趋势统计分析

根据对旱涝自身变化及其与太阳黑子活动，厄尔尼诺事件关系的分析，，得出了金华旱涝趋势的几点认识：（1）在未来的十几年之内，金华站将从涝年占优势的阶段转入旱年占优势的阶段；（2）在太阳黑子活动22年的磁周期转变年前后，金华站3年平均年降水量明显偏多；（3）在春季型厄尔尼诺事件的当年和夏季型厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量偏多；（4）厄尔尼诺事件的结束时间若超过5月1日，那么次年金华站年降水量偏多；（5）厄尔尼诺事件的强度越大，对金华站年降水量的影响也越大；（6）在太阳黑子活动22年磁周期转变年前后的厄尔尼诺事件的次年，金华站年降水量明显偏多。这些认识对长期及超长期的旱涝趋势预测具有重要的现实意义。     

CONFLICT AND COOPERATION OVER INTERNATIONAL FRESHWATER RESOURCES: INDICATORS OF BASINS AT RISR1

ABSTRACT: In this paper we seek to identify historical indicators of international freshwater conflict and cooperation and to create a framework to identify and evaluate international river basins at potential risk for future conflict. We derived biophysical, socioeco‐nomic, and geopolitical variables at multiple spatial and temporal scales from GIS datasets of international basins and associated countries, and we tested these variables against a database of historical incidents of international water related cooperation and conflict from 1948 to 1999. International relations over freshwater resources were overwhelmingly cooperative and covered a wide range of issues, including water quantity, water quality, joint management, and hydropower. Conflictive relations tended to center on quantity and infrastructure. No single indicator—including climate, water stress, government type, and dependence on water for agriculture or energy—explained conflict/cooperation over water. Even indicators showing a significant correlation with water conflict, such as high population density, low per capita GDP, and overall unfriendly international relations, explained only a small percentage of data variability. The most promising sets of indicators for water conflict were those associated with rapid or extreme physical or institutional change within a basin (e.g., large dams or internationalization of a basin) and the key role of institutional mechanisms, such as freshwater treaties, in mitigating such conflict.     

Technical Procedures for CDM Project Design

The success of CDM depends on active participation of public and private entities. In particular, participation of wide range of private companies is an important factor for the success. In order to promote the participation of private companies in the CDM project activities as project participants, the authors clarify the steps and technical issues involved in the CDM project design procedures in a step-by-step approach. The steps consist of outlining the project plans, identifying project impacts, defining a project boundary, estimating GHG emissions reduction/enhancement of removals, documenting the results of estimation, and designing of monitoring plans. The authors also propose guidance for project participants, especially for those not familiar with the CDM, which provides plain explanation of major technical issues. In order to further develop a complete guideline, it is necessary to integrate the outputs of the ongoing international initiatives concerning technical issues of CDM into the stepwise approach proposed in this paper. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

核电站重要敏感性设备分析

核电站重要敏感性设备管理是国内首次采用归纳法和演绎法对核电站重要敏感系统和设备进行识别和设备分级的一种新方法。目标是为了找到导致反应堆紧急停堆、强迫停机和非计划跳机跳堆风险的主要部件 ,并采用 80 - 2 0的原理进行有效的管理 ,建立有效的风险管理 (预防、探测、改正行动 PDC ,Prevention/Detec tion/Correction)大纲和PDC管理数据库 ,并对大部分的重要敏感设备的子部件进行的FMEA(FailureModeandEffectAnalysis)分析 ,识别其失效机理 ,从而确定重要敏感设备清单和预防跳机跳堆的改正行动 ,减少未来由于设备失效导致的跳堆次数 ,达到提高核电站的设备可靠性、安全性和经济性的目的。     

GIS与SDM集成构建土地定级专家信息系统的研究

提出将GIS与SDM技术集成应用于土地定级信息系统建设,介绍了GIS与SDM集成的基本框架。设计开发了一个基于GIS和SDM技术的土地定级专家信息系统,系统采用决策树方法作为数据挖掘方法的基本算法,通过决策树训练与学习相结合挖掘土地定级规则,运用专家系统推力技术进行匹配推理实现土地定级工作。结合武汉市商业用地类型土地定级实例数据对系统性能进行了验证。结果表明,系统具有良好的移植性、复用性、扩展性和广泛适应性的特点,运用此技术能较好地解决土地定级这种具有半结构和非结构化特点的问题。     

校园踩踏事件事故树分析

为了掌握中小学校园踩踏事件发生的原因,预防事故发生,本文收集和整理了近10年来的中小学校园踩踏事件案例,运用事故树方法分析了校园踩踏事件的起因,同时考虑管理因素对事件发生概率的影响,计算了校园踩踏事件发生的概率,并对基本事件进行了重要度分析,以为学校安全管理提供依据。     

1962～2012年西南地区极端温度事件时空变化特征

基于西南地区88站1962~2012年日气温数据,采用百分位阈值法定义极端温度事件,结合线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall秩次相关法、反距离加权插值法对其时空变化进行了分析。结果表明:极端温度指数存在明显的空间分布差异,暖日指数、暖夜指数、冷夜指数和年内日最低气温整体上均由东南向西北逐渐降低;霜冻天指数则由东南向西北部逐渐升高,西北部梯度变化明显;冷日指数和年内日最高气温呈马鞍状分布,较高值均在西南和东北部;因多数地区高温天数极少,故没有明显的梯度变化。霜冻天指数、冷夜指数和冷日指数减少趋势明显,分别为2.7、4.6和3.5d/10a;暖日指数和暖夜指数、年内日最低气温和最高气温均呈增加趋势,分别为3.6、4.9、0.4和0.1℃/10a;高温天指数变化不显著。整体上来看,西南地区极端高温事件和极端低温事件分别呈上升和下降趋势,但有部分区域呈相反变化趋势,体现出西南地区气候变化的独特性。     

北京市常见落叶树种叶片滞纳空气颗粒物功能

为了探求北京市常见落叶乔木树种滞纳空气颗粒物的功能,选取了6种典型落叶乔木树种(杨树、刺槐、栾树、垂柳、元宝枫、银杏),利用空气气溶胶再发生器(QRJZFSQ-I)测定了不同树种单位面积叶片对空气总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)、粗颗粒物和细颗粒物的滞纳量.结果表明:16个树种的叶片对不同粒径空气颗粒物均能起到一定的滞纳作用,且不同树种滞纳量表现出较大差异,栾树和刺槐单位面积叶片对不同粒径颗粒物的滞纳量最高,杨树的滞纳量最小;2不同树种单位面积叶片对不同粒径颗粒物的滞纳量并不完全随着取样时间的延长而增加,在雨后8 d和雨后5 d,不同树种单位面积叶片对TSP和粗颗粒物的滞纳量差异较大,但不同树种单位面积叶片对细颗粒物的滞纳量在不同取样时间下没有明显差异.在北京以空气污染的生态治理为目标选择落叶树种时,与银杏、垂柳、元宝枫、杨树相比,应优先选择栾树,其次为刺槐.     

Flux characteristics of total dissolved iron and its species during extreme rainfall event in the midstream of the Heilongjiang River

The occurrence of extreme rainfall events and associated flooding has been enhanced due to climate changes, and is thought to influence the flux of total dissolved iron(TDI) in rivers considerably. Since TDI is a controlling factor in primary productivity in marine ecosystems, alteration of riverine TDI input to the ocean may lead to climate change via its effect on biological productivity. During an extreme rainfall event that arose in northeastern China in 2013, water samples were collected in the midstream of the Heilongjiang River to analyze the concentration and species of TDI as well as other basic parameters. The speciation of TDI was surveyed by filtration and ultrafiltration methods.Compared with data monitored from 2007 to 2012, the concentration of TDI increased significantly during this event, with an average concentration of 1.11 mg/L, and the estimated TDI flux reached 1.2 × 105 tons, equaling the average annual TDI flux level.Species analysis revealed that low-molecular-weight complexed iron was the dominant species, and the impulse of TDI flux could probably be attributed to the hydrological connection to riparian wetlands and iron-rich terrestrial runoff. Moreover, dissolved organic matter played a key role in the flux, species and bioavailability of TDI. In addition,there is a possibility that the rising TDI flux could further influence the transport and cycling of nutrients and related ecological processes in the river, estuary coupled with the coastal ecosystems, which merits closer attention in the future.