基于增强回归树的城市PM2.5日均值变化分析:以常州为例

利用2014年12月至2015年11月常州市区6个国控监测站空气污染物浓度逐时数据,分析了PM_(2.5)浓度季节变化特征,采用增强回归树模拟分析了PM10、4种气态污染物和7个气象因子对ρ(PM_(2.5))日变化的贡献.结果表明,常州市区PM_(2.5)污染季节差异明显,冬季污染严重且持续时间长,夏季污染较轻.四季ρ(PM_(2.5))空间分布特征存在一定差异,但各季内不同监测站差异较小.增强回归树对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值进行模拟和验证得到,训练数据的相关性为0.981,交叉验证的相关性为0.957.此外,模拟值与实测值的标准化平均偏差为1.80%,标准化平均误差为10.41%,可见模型拟合效果较好.PM10、气态污染物、气象因子和区域输送及扩散这4种影响类型对全年ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的贡献率分别为23.4%、28%、36.2%和12.6%,表明在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异的影响上,气象因子二次形成一次源区域输送及扩散.在对ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值差异贡献率大于5%的因子中,ρ(PM_(2.5))日均值与PM10、相对湿度、CO和O3正相关,与温度、SO2和混合层高度负相关,与大气压和NO2关系较复杂.区域输送及扩散方面,东南风向、偏西风向和偏北风向等上风向周边城市的污染物输送对常州市区PM_(2.5)污染存在较大的负面影响.     

Canopy Seed Banks as Time Capsules of Biodiversity in Pasture-Remnant Tree Crowns

Abstract: Tropical pastures present multiple barriers to tree regeneration and restoration. Relict trees serve as “regeneration foci” because they ameliorate the soil microclimate and serve as safe spots for dispersers. Here, we describe another mechanism by which remnant trees may facilitate pasture regeneration: the presence of seed banks in the canopy soil that accumulates from decomposing epiphytes within the crowns of mature remnant trees in tropical cloud forest pastures. We compared seed banks of canopy soils (histosols derived from fallen leaves, fruits, flower, and twigs of host trees and epiphytes, dead bryophytes, bark, detritus, dead animals, and microorganisms, and dust that accumulate on trunks and the upper surfaces of large branches) in pastures, canopy soils in primary forest trees, and soil on the forest floor in Monteverde, Costa Rica. There were 5211 epiphytic and terrestrial plant seeds in the three habitats. All habitats were dominated by seeds in a relatively small number of plant families, most of which were primarily woody, animal pollinated, and animal dispersed. The density of seeds on the forest floor was greater than seed density in either pasture‐canopy or forest‐canopy soils; the latter two did not differ. Eight species in 44 families and 61 genera from all of the habitats were tallied. There were 37 species in the pasture‐canopy soil, 33 in the forest‐canopy soil, and 57 on the forest floor. Eleven species were common to all habitats. The mean species richness in the pasture canopy was significantly higher than the forest canopy (F =83.38; p < 0.02). Nonmetric multidimensional scaling ordination revealed that the communities were distinct. Greenhouse experiments verified that many of these seeds were viable, with 29 taxa germinating (23 taxa in pruned mats [mimic of exposed conditions] and 16 taxa in control mats [intact conditions]) within 2 months of observation. Nearly half the species that germinated were characteristic of primary forests (primary forest samples, 19%; pasture samples, 29%). This supports the idea that canopy seed banks of pasture trees can function as time capsules by providing propagules that are removed in both space and time from the primary forest. Their presence may enhance the ability of pastures to regenerate more quickly, reinforcing the importance of trees in agricultural settings.     

两种定性天气预报模型的对比分析

以南京１９６５～１９９４ 年４ 月平均气温作为预报量, 选取前期５００ ｈ Ｐａ 月平均高度场相关因子, 分别建立了事件概率回归预报模型和神经网络预报模型。通过对比分析发现, 在同等条件下,由于神经网络方法能更好地反映预报量与预报因子间的非线性关系, 并能有效避免采用事件概率回归方法预报建模时, 对预报因子分级造成信息损失的缺点。因此, 其拟合和预报效果明显优于传统的概率回归预报方法     

A TREE-RING RECONSTRUCTION OF DROUGHT IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA1

ABSTRACT: Indices of annual diameter growth of trees were used to reconstruct drought in southern California back to A.D. 1700. A regional Palmer Drought Index served as predictand and tree-ring indices from eight sites as predictors in multiple linear regression analyses that yielded the prediction (reconstruction) equations. The regression explained 69 percent of the variance in Palmer Index in the period of calibration. The long-term reconstruction indicated that drought was rare in the first half of the current century relative to other discrete 50-year periods, and that based on evidence to date the last half of the 20th century may well turn out to be the most drought prone since A.D. 1700 in southern California.     

用事故树分析法进行炼厂油罐爆炸事故的环境风险评价

论述了风险、风险评价、环境风险评价的概念及其主要内容，说明利用事故树分析法进行工程环境风险评价的程序和方法。并运用这种方法对某炼厂油罐爆炸事故进行了大气环境风险评价。     

Delivering on the Promise of Agroforestry

Agroforestry – the traditional practice of growing trees on farms for the benefit of the farm family and for the environment – was brought from the realm of indigenous knowledge into the forefront of agricultural research less than two decades ago. It was promoted widely as a sustainability-enhancing practice that combines the best attributes of forestry and agriculture. Based on principles of natural resource management and process-oriented research, agroforestry is now recognized as an applied science, that is instrumental in assuring food security, reducing poverty and enhancing ecosystem resilience at the scale of thousands of smallholder farmers in the tropics.Trees on farms provide both products and services: they yield food, fuelwood, fodder, timber and medicines, which farm families can use at home or take to market to bring in much-needed cash; they replenish organic matter and nutrient levels in soils and they help control erosion and conserve water. The International Centre for Research in Agroforestry, and its partners, are working to integrate the functions of trees with policy and institutional improvements that aim at facilitating wide-scale adoption by farmers.Two examples described in this paper are replenishing soil fertility in sub-Saharan Africa using short-term improved tree and shrub fallows and the results of agroforestry research to support significant land tenure policy in southeast Asia.Although just one option in sustainable land-use, science-based agroforestry has the potential to produce economically, socially and environmentally sound results for the billions of people who depend on this ancient practice and modern science.     

黄河宁蒙河段突发性水污染事件中应急监测探讨

介绍了黄河宁蒙河段近几年突发性水污染事件应急监测基本情况,总结了应急监测的特点、作用,对突发性水污染事件中应急监测中存在的问题进行了重点分析,提出了解决的对策。     

REDUCING THE COST OF CONTINUOUS HYDROLOGIC-HYDRAULIC SIMULATION1

ABSTRACT: The use of continuous hydrologic-hydraulic-water quality models is inhibited by their large computer run costs relative to cost incurred with discrete event models. The fixed recurrence interval transfer (FRIT) technique is a means of achieving substantial reductions in computer costs associated with continuous models while retaining their technical advantages. The FRIT technique is applicable where it is reasonable to assume that the recurrence interval of the response of a watershed to a causative meteorologic event is the same for both “before” and “after” conditions. Example applications of the FRIT technique to the hydrologic-hydraulic modeling of floodwater storage, land use changes, and channel modifications are presented to demonstrate the procedure, to suggest the expected accuracy, and to illustrate how computer run costs might be reduced by 99% or more. The FRIT technique is intended for preliminary assessment of the impact of alternative land use conditions and structural water control measures.     

建筑物消防系统可靠性分析

为评估建筑物消防系统的可靠性,首先将系统分为探测报警系统和灭火系统等部分,再用事件树法分析事故发生时消防系统不同部分的反应情况.通过贝叶斯理论及历史统计数据得到系统失效率的不确定性概率分布,建立消防系统可靠性随时间变化的数学模型; 用蒙特卡罗方法模拟求得系统可靠性的时间函数并对模型的不确定性参数进行敏感性分析.该方法将统计数据与经验公式、理论方法相结合,并利用蒙特卡罗方法处理模型中的不确定性,不仅能够有效估计消防系统的可靠性,还可对其他类似系统的可靠性进行分析,并通过敏感性分析为进一步减少估计的不确定性提出合理建议.     

事故二叉树计算机算法

根据《数据结构》中的二叉树算法,结合事故树算法的特点,提出事故二叉树算法。该算法是对事故树求解算法的有益补充和发展,具有广阔的应用前景和现实意义