重大事件对入境游客旅游动机的影响——北京奥运会的案例研究

以2008年北京奥运会为例,通过入境游客行为调查分析奥运会举办对入境游客旅游动机的影响。结果表明,影响入境游客旅游动机的因素主要有限制性因子、社会心理因子和文化教育因子,其中社会心理因子和文化教育因子与北京奥运会显著相关;入境游客的年龄、学历和家庭结构与奥运会举办呈现负相关;游客的年龄、学历、年收入和家庭结构等变量受奥运会影响显著,提出了相应的营销策略。     

Automobile exhaust gas as a source of aqueous phase OH radical in the atmosphere and its effects on physiological status of pine trees

Free radical generation potential of automobile exhaust gas was examined by measuring hydroxyl (OH) radical photo-formation rates in exhaust gas-scrubbing water. Effects of automobile exhausts on physiological status of Japanese red pine trees (Pinus densiflora Sieb. et Zucc.) were also investigated to elucidate the mechanism how the free radicals derived from exhaust gas damage higher plants. Gasoline and diesel exhaust gases were scrubbed into pure water. Potential photo-formation rates of OH radical in aqueous phase (normalized to sun light intensity of clear sky midday on May 1 at 34°N) for gasoline and diesel cars were ave. 51 and 107 μM h⁻¹ m⁻³ of exhaust gas, respectively. Nitrite was a dominant source (ca. 70-90%) of photochemical formation of OH radical in both gasoline and diesel car exhausts. The scrubbed solution of diesel car exhaust gas was sprayed for six times per week to needles of pine tree seedlings in open top chambers. Control, exhaust + mannitol (added as OH radical scavenger), and nitrite + nitrate standard solution (equivalent levels existed in the exhaust gas) were also sprayed. Two months sprays indicated that the sprayed solutions of diesel exhaust and nitrite + nitrate caused a decrease of maximum photosynthetic rate and stomata conductance in pine needles while the control and exhaust + mannitol solution showed no effects on photosynthetic activities of pine needles. These results indicated that OH radicals generated mainly from photolysis of nitrite occurring in the scrubbing solution of exhaust gas are responsible for the decrease of photosynthetic activities of pine needles.     

Risks of global warming on montane and subalpine forests in Switzerland – a modeling study

In this study, we assess the risks of global warming on distributions of individual tree species in Switzerland. Applying a spatially explicit model, tree occurrence is predicted as a function of high resolution and physiologically relevant biophysical variables. The study shows that warming only slightly alters the overall abundance of tree species. However, the preferred temperature regimes are unevenly distributed along an elevational gradient, and the sensitivity to temperature varies considerably between the species. As a result, major reorganizations of forests in montane and subalpine belts are expected, i.e., a segregation of the core distributions of Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies is observed. Tree distribution potentials near timberlines, however, remain roughly the same. Electronic Publication     

决策树方法在高风险复杂技术系统组织因素量化中的应用

主要探讨运用决策树方法对高风险复杂技术系统组织因素量化的问题.对影响人误发生的组织文化、组织结构、规程、培训、组织沟通以及监督检查、组织决策7个因素按照好、一般、差3种表现形式分别进行了解释,画出了组织因素决策树例图.介绍了决策树量化的方法,给出了量化的公式和实例.     

果树缺铁失绿症矫治方法简述

本文简单评述了果树缺铁失绿症的多种矫治方法及其效果,以供各地在矫治果树失绿症时参考。     

Sensitivity of the Structural Characteristics of Tree Rings to Climatic Changes in Different Climatypes of Scotch Pine

Radial increment and tree-ring structure were studied in the progenies of 16 climatypes growing in the southern taiga subzone. The coefficients of correlation between tree-ring parameters of the local and other climatypes were as high as 0.7–0.9, and the synchronism coefficients were higher than 0.7. Climatypes of northern origin were an exception. The sensitivity of the parameters of the tree-ring late wood decreased with an increase in the latitude at which the seeds for establishing the cultures were collected. Estimation of Euclidean distances in the space of tree-ring parameters showed that the northern climatypes differed from the southern taiga types by no more than 15%. The climatypes from the middle taiga and the forest–steppe exhibited smaller differences (10–11%).     

计算机辅助事故树分析研究

计算机辅助事故树分析中,求最小割集和绘制事故树是非常重要的。实用中,由于事故树往往规模庞大且最小割集的数目难以预知,这就使传统的用不能动态扩充的数组实现的计算机算法在应用时受到很大限制。本应用VC＋＋（MFC）中可动态扩充的数组类数据结构,实现求最小割集的Fussell算法,并提出和实现“堆砖法”计算机辅助事故树绘图。     

基于事故树分析的钻井井漏事故危险评价研究

基于事故致因理论建立井漏事故模型,将井漏事故危险源分为地质条件不佳、井底压力过大、井漏诱因和应急失效4类,提出基于事故树方法的钻井井漏危险性专项评价方法。以东安1井为例,对东安1井井漏事故的风险源进行分析,找出导致井漏的主要原因,通过对最小割集和最小径集的分析可知对井漏事故影响最大的是地质情况因素。对井漏事故的预防提出建议:井眼轨迹设计时应重点考虑地层的地质条件;施工过程中严格按规章操作,并建立良好的应急救援机制。     

New methodologies for security risk assessment of oil and gas industry

The oil and gas industry forms a vital and large part of the economy of any country. It provides crucial support to transport, manufacturing and energy sectors, produces valuable exports and provides huge employment. This industry along with fertilizer plants, petrochemical plants, etc., which handle hazardous chemicals, are potential targets for deliberate actions by terrorists, criminals and disgruntled employees. The process industries face different levels of threats. It is imperative to analyze the entire threat scenario before taking steps to counter it, otherwise each and every threat will have to be treated as most severe, thus resulting in a huge and wasteful expenditure.The Security Risk Factor Table (SRFT) and a Stepped Matrix Procedure (SMP) have been developed to assess the security risk of oil and gas industry as well as the other chemical process industries. While the SRFT deals with the effects of individual threats, the SMP deals with the cascading/domino effects which a lone, low probability event can cause. A case study of a refinery has been performed to show the application of the ideas presented.     

工程项目施工安全保证的投入效率分析

利用ALARP原则构建工程项目施工风险可容忍区域,对处于不可容忍区域的安全事故,采取安全投入措施使之进入可容忍区域;对处于可容忍区域的安全事故,进行安全投入效益分析,以确定最佳安全投入额。采用事故树分析法探究事故与事故发生原因之间的内在逻辑关系,并探讨安全投入与事故发生概率的函数关系。在此基础上,构建安全投入优化分配模型,结合历史统计数据,利用Lingo软件对模型进行计算求解。