激光粒度仪事故树分析

以LS-POP(Ⅲ)型激光粒度仪为例,结合作者的实践操作经验,用事故树分析法对激光粒度仪中的核心部件--循环进样器常见故障进行分析,同时对其提出解决的措施,使同行者能正确的使用和更好的维护该类仪器     

DROUGHT,TREE RINGS,AND RESERVOIR DESIGN1

Droughts constitute one of the most important factors affecting the design and operation of water resources infrastructure. Hydrologists ascertain their duration, severity, and pattern of recurrence from instrumental records of precipitation or stream‐flow. Under suitable conditions, and with proper analysis, tree rings obtained from long living, climate sensitive species of trees can extend instrumental records of streamflow and precipitation over periods spanning several centuries. Those tree‐ring “reconstructions” provide a valuable insight about climate variability and drought occurrence in the Holocene, and yield long term hydrological data useful in the design of water infrastructure. This work presents a derivation of drought risk based on a renewal model of drought recurrence, a brief review of the basic theory of tree‐ring reconstructions, and a stochastic model for optimizing the design of water supply reservoirs. Examples illustrate the methodology developed in this work and the supporting role that tree‐ring reconstructed streamflow can play in characterizing hydrologic variability.     

港口装卸作业的安全性分析

港口装卸的安全性对物流的畅通和港口企业的经济效益都有着举足轻重的作用 ,因此 ,港口装卸作业必须确保安全。而港口装卸作业涉及面广 ,研究港口装卸的安全性 ,仅仅考虑人—机系统是不够的。笔者在人机工程的基础上 ,提出了港口装卸作业特定的人—机—货—环系统 ,并就其主要影响因素、安全信息在系统中的作用以及系统的事故模型进行了理论分析。最后 ,利用事故树分析方法 ,对港口装卸事故产生的原因及其重要度进行了分析 ,为港口进一步采取安全措施提供了理论依据。     

HISTORICAL AND ESTIMATED GROUND WATER LEVELS NEAR WINNIPEG,CANADA, AND THEIR SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATIC VARIABILITY1

ABSTRACT: Long term well hydrographs and estimated ground water levels derived from hydroclimatic and biological data were used to evaluate trends within the Upper Carbonate Aquifer (UCA) near Winnipeg, Canada, during the 20th Century. Ground water records from instruments have been kept since the early 1960s and are derived from piezometers in the overlying sediments and in open boreholes in the UCA. Some boreholes extend into an underlying Paleozoic carbonate sequence. Shallow well hydrographs show no obvious long term trends but do exhibit variations on the order of three to four years that are correlated with changes in annual temperature and precipitation at lags up to 24 months. Trends observed in deeper wells appear to be largely related to ground water usage patterns and show little correlation with climate over the past 35 years. Stepwise multiple regression modeled average annual hydraulic head in the shallow wells as a function of regional temperature, precipitation, and tree ring variables. Estimated hydraulic heads had a slightly greater range prior to the 1960s, most prominently during an interval of lowered ground water levels between 1930 and 1942. Regression results demonstrate that moisture sensitive tree ring data are viable predictors of past ground water levels and may be useful for studies of aquifers in regions that lack long, high quality precipitation records.     

Characterizing the Spatial Pattern of Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Pools in the Turkey Lakes Watershed: A Comparison of Regression Techniques

There is considerable spatial heterogeneity in organic carbon (C), total nitrogen (N), and potentially mineralizable nitrogen (PMN) pools in the soils of the Turkey Lakes Watershed. We hypothesized that topography regulates the spatial pattern of these pools through a combination of static factors (slope, aspect and elevation), which influence radiation, temperature andmoisture conditions, and dynamic factors (catenary position,profile and planar curvature), which influence the transport ofmaterials downslope. We used multiple linear regression (MLR)and tree regression (TR) models as exploratory techniques todetermine if there was a topographic basis for the spatialpattern of the C, N and PMN pools. The MLR and TR modelspredicted similar integrated totals (i.e., within 5% of eachother) but dissimilar spatial patterns of the pools. For thecombined litter, fibric and hemic layer, the MLR models explaineda significant portion of the variance (R² = 0.38, 0.23 and0.28 for C, N and PMN, respectively), however, the residuals werelarge and biased (the smallest contents were over-predicted andthe largest contents were under-predicted). The TR models (9-branch), in contrast, explained a greater portion of the variance (R² = 0.75, 0.67 and 0.62 for C, N and PMN, respectively) and the residuals were smaller and unbiased. Based on our sampling strategy, the models suggested that static factors were most important in predicting the spatial pattern of the nutrient pools. However, a nested sampling strategy that included scales where both static (among hillslopes) and dynamic (within hillslope) factors result in a systematic variation in soil nutrient pools may have improvedthe predictive ability of the models.     

中国北方草原雪灾的致灾机制探讨

北方草原雪灾是天灾 ,更是一种人祸。受拉尼娜事件影响的异常气候固然是致灾的客观原因 ,但是不合理的人类经济活动 ,如超载放牧、耕地过垦、滥挖草药、滥用水资源等社会经济压力 ,超过了草原生态阈限 ,使脆弱的草原生态平衡遭到严重破坏 ;粗放经营 ,草原基础设施落后 ,也使草原生态系统抵御灾害的能力降低 ;草原公有、牲畜私有之间的所有制相位差是激发牧民掠夺式利用草原资源的最根本原因。为了追求私人经济利益的最大化 ,放牧者往往置公共草原的承载能力于不顾 ,严重恶化的草原生态环境也许正是“公共物品悲剧”的真实写照。     

冗余系统应用于安全管理的探讨

利用故障树方法证明了系统中增加有效的冗余件能大大增加系统的安全性，提高设备的本质安全化的水平，加强了安全管理的效果，同时对冗余系统的插入方式进行了分类，列举了应用实例。     

上海地区开发利用木本能源植物初探

阐述了能源植物的概念、开发利用能源植物的意义，以及能源植物的发展现状和趋势。重点论述了上海地区开发利用木本能源植物的必要性、可行性，并就如何开发利用木本能源植物提出了相关建议。     

一种基于可靠性理论的区域环境质量风险评价模型探讨

首先从理论上研究了用可靠性理论进行区域环境质量风险评价需要解决的几个基本问题,在此基础上,构建了环境污染故障树和区域环境质量风险评价的数学模型.这是一种以概率为基础的、新的区域环境质量风险评价模型,对于研究污染型工业系统的环境质量风险具有重要意义.     

Tree Basal Growth Response to Flooding in a Bottomland Hardwood Forest in Central Ohio1

Abstract: Tree basal growth in response to flooding regime was evaluated at a 5.2‐ha bottomland forest along the Olentangy River in central Ohio. Tree‐ring analysis was used to develop a 14‐year basal area increment (BAI) (cm²/year) series for 42 canopy trees (representing 10 species) throughout the bottomland. Mean annual BAI was evaluated relative to the frequency and duration of bankfull (>70 m³/s) and high‐flood (>154 m³/s) river discharge for a given water year (October 1‐September 30) and growing season (April 1‐September 30). A significant polynomial relationship was detected between the number of days of high‐flood river discharge over a combined two‐year period (Year i + Year i ? 1) and mean annual BAI. No significant relationships were detected when only the concurrent‐year or previous‐year flood regimes were considered or when growing season was considered. A similar relationship was detected when duration of high‐flood discharge days and BAI were both evaluated in two‐year increments (Year i + Year i ? 1). Mean annual BAI was most influenced by boxelder (Acer negundo) which was the dominant species and exhibited strong agreement with the overall BAI series. In each case, the resulting parabolic curve of tree basal growth in response to flooding suggests an optimal number of flooding days, a response to perturbation consistent with the subsidy‐stress model. Dendrochronology may be a useful tool for managers looking to restore environmental flows to regulated rivers.