基于证据理论的城市防洪应急预案评估研究

城市防洪工作的重要工具之一就是城市防洪应急预案,它的有效性直接关乎防洪工作的效率。以城市防洪应急预案为研究对象,建立其有效性评估体系。重点研究了评估体系中响应措施的合理性评估,并基于证据理论来解决评估中的不确定性问题。最后以《武汉市洪山区防洪预案》进行实例分析,验证了证据理论应用于响应措施合理性评估的可行性。     

基于信息融合的建筑施工安全预警管理研究

针对建筑业安全事故率居高不下的现状,找出事故频发的主要原因。基于主要原因中人、机、环境和管理4方面数据和信息的复杂性、不确定性,提出采用信息融合技术的D-S证据理论法对建筑施工全过程中的人、机、环境、管理4方面的数据和信息进行分析和预测,并构建建筑施工安全预警管理预测模型。该预测模型能判断建筑施工项目的"安全状态",能解决建筑施工中安全事故及危险源的预测问题;同时针对具体情况采取防范措施,及时矫正安全隐患和确保安全施工。将D-S证据理论法应用于建筑施工安全预警管理中,扩展了建筑施工安全管理的手段。     

Spatial and statistical assessment of factors influencing nitrate contamination in groundwater

The weights of evidence (WofE) modeling technique has been used to analyze both natural and anthropogenic factors influencing the occurrence of high nitrate concentrations in groundwater resources located in the central part of the Po Plain (Northern Italy). The proposed methodology applied in the Lodi District combines measurements of nitrate concentrations, carried out by means of a monitoring net of 69 wells, with spatial data representing both categorical and numerical variables. These variables describe either potential sources of nitrate and the relative ease with which it may migrate towards groundwater. They include population density, nitrogen fertilizer loading, groundwater recharge, soil protective capacity, vadose zone permeability, groundwater depth, and saturated zone permeability. Once conditional dependence problems among factors have been solved and validation tests performed, the statistical approach has highlighted negative and positive correlations between geoenvironmental factors and nitrate concentration in groundwater. These results have been achieved analysing the calculated statistical parameters (weights, contrasts, normalized contrasts) of each class by which each factor has been previously subdivided. This has permitted to outline: the overall influence each factor has on the presence/absence of nitrate; the range of their values mostly influencing this presence/absence; the most and least critical combination of factor classes existing in each specific zone; areas where the influence of impacting factor classes is reduced by the presence of not impacting factor classes. This last aspect could represent an important support for a correct land use management to preserve groundwater quality.     

基于证据权重法地下水中氮浓度影响因素分析

针对地下水中氮素浓度主控因素难以确定的问题,本文以三江平原松花江-挠力河流域为例,采用证据权重法,选取降水量、土地利用类型、人口密度、土壤有机质含量、粘土层厚度、地下水埋深、含水层厚度和地下水类型为证据因子,分别建立地下水中氨氮和硝态氮的预测模型,并分析其对氮素浓度分布的影响程度,取得了较好的预测结果,其中氨氮和硝态氮的预测精度分别达到77.2%和89.1%.分析表明:三江平原地下水中氨氮和硝态氮浓度与降水量、人口密度呈正响应关系;氨氮浓度与含水层厚度呈正响应关系,而硝态氮与含水层厚度则呈负响应关系,说明氨氮受含水层氧化还原环境条件影响较大,硝态氮受含水层对流弥散作用影响较大;当土地利用类型为居住用地时,地下水中氨氮和硝态氮浓度通常较高.     

主观性在环境侵权案件证据和证明中的作用研究

法院在审理环境侵权案件时,往往依赖于专业鉴定、行政标准、专家意见等等客观依据来确定案件事实.但因为环境问题的复杂性,以及民事主体自身举证能力的限制,经常出现双方举证均不充分,法院无法基于现有事实和证据得出结论的情况.此时,法官应当发挥自身能动性,主动应用主观的、甚至是非科学性的因素和手段,包括容忍义务、经验法则、自由心证等等,这些因素无法被赋予客观的标准,它需要法官基于自身的理性以及经验,结合社会一般观念、习惯等因素进行判断.     

改进的加权C-F模型方法在煤矿安全评估中的应用

为在不确定的条件下准确地评估煤矿生产安全风险,构建煤矿安全评估证据体系(体系分为3级,包括3个一级证据,6个2级证据,22个3级证据),基于该体系和改进的加权C-F模型方法,提出一种新的煤矿安全评估方法。在煤矿安全领域专家给定推理规则强度和证据加权因子等数据下,应用该模型方法对不同类型煤矿进行计算机仿真实验,结果表明该方法在不确定条件下,能智能地评估煤矿企业生产安全风险,为提升煤矿安全生产和科学决策水平提供指导。     

模糊证据权法在地震滑坡危险度区划中的应用

为克服滑坡危险度评价中因子边界划分不确定性和因子权重的主观性问题,引入模糊证据权法,对汶川震区岷江流域雁门乡至映秀段,进行滑坡发生后验概率计算。采用修正后验概率模型,来满足模糊证据权法中证据层间的条件独立性假设,以提高预测结果精度。最后按照预测的滑坡点数,完成研究区滑坡危险度区划。通过与野外实际踏勘数据对比,结果显示:75.24%的已知滑坡点处于修正后验概分级中等危险度以上。表明模糊证据权方法,可较为客观准确地对地震滑坡危险度进行区划,适用于预测以自然因素为主导的事件发生概率。     

浅谈环保行政执法证据的收集、制作

在环境案件调查处理过程中,证据具有重要作用.收集、制作有效的执法证据是环保部门作出具体行政行为的基础.只有掌握充分确凿的证据,才能保证正确认定案件事实,也才能正确适用法律,避免出现行政复议变更或行政诉讼败论情况的发生.在此,根据环境案件的执法的特征和特点阐述了收集、制作证据的方法和要求.     

基于D-S证据理论的可靠性强化试验的综合评价

针对可靠性强化试验的各个试验项目对产品的可靠性影响的综合评价问题,应用D-S证据理论对其试验效果进行评价。介绍了D-S证据理论的基本概念及D-S证据融合准则,并针对RET给出应用D-S证据理论对其进行评价的方法。该方法首先针对RET对产品可靠性影响的各个可能性结果构造识别框架;其次,将RET中的每个试验项目视为一个证据,建立相应的证据体;最后,使用D-S证据融合规则对各个证据进行融合。结果表明,针对RET采用D-S证据理论进行评价有助于将多个证据有机地融合在一起,有利于提高评价的准确性,降低不确定度。     

Handling and updating uncertain information in bow-tie analysis

Bow-tie analysis is a fairly new concept in risk assessment that can describe the relationships among different risk control parameters, such as causes, hazards and consequences to mitigate the likelihood of occurrence of unwanted events in an industrial system. It also facilitates the performance of quantitative risk analysis for an unwanted event providing a detailed investigation starting from basic causes to final consequences. The credibility of quantitative evaluation of the bow-tie is still a major concern since uncertainty, due to limited or missing data, often restricts the performance of analysis. The utilization of expert knowledge often provides an alternative for such a situation. However, it comes at the cost of possible uncertainties related to incompleteness (partial ignorance), imprecision (subjectivity), and lack of consensus (if multiple expert judgments are used). Further, if the bow-tie analysis is not flexible enough to incorporate new knowledge or evidence, it may undermine the purpose of risk assessment.Fuzzy set and evidence theory are capable of characterizing the uncertainty associated with expert knowledge. To minimize the overall uncertainty, fusing the knowledge of multiple experts and updating prior knowledge with new evidence are equally important in addition to addressing the uncertainties in the knowledge. This paper proposes a methodology to characterize the uncertainties, aggregate knowledge and update prior knowledge or evidence, if new data become available for the bow-tie analysis. A case study comprising a bow-tie for a typical offshore process facility has also been developed to describe the utility of this methodology in an industrial environment.