基于GIS的新源县滑坡灾害分析与区划

新源县是新疆滑坡灾害的多发区。基于GIS的多元信息整合与空间分析功能,分析了近年新源县449个滑坡灾害点的监测数据,探讨了该区滑坡的发育特征,进行了滑坡灾害危险性区划。结果表明,地质条件是滑坡灾害形成的基本因素,降雨是滑坡灾害的主要诱发因素,过度放牧等人类活动也是促发滑坡灾害发生发展的重要因素之一。由此,为避免滑坡灾害,减少在上述地形地质条件下的不合理人类活动、合理安排牲畜数量以减少环境负荷是决策关键。     

Assessment of the Conservation Efforts to Prevent Extinction of the Iberian Lynx

Abstract: The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) may be the first charismatic felid to become extinct in a high‐income country, despite decades of study and much data that show extinction is highly probable. The International Union for Conservation of Nature categorizes it as critically endangered; about 200 free‐ranging individuals remain in two populations in southern Spain. Conservation measures aimed at averting extirpation have been extensively undertaken with 4 of the former 10 Iberian lynx populations recorded 25 years ago. Two of the four populations have been extirpated. The number of individuals in the third population have declined by 83%, and in the fourth the probability of extirpation has increased from 34% to 95%. Major drivers of the pending extinction are the small areas to which conservation measures have been applied; lack of incorporation of evidence‐based conservation, scientific monitoring, and adaptive management into conservation efforts; a lack of continuity in recovery efforts, and distrust by conservation agencies of scientific information. In contrast to situations in which conservation and economic objectives conflict, in the case of the Iberian lynx all stakeholders desire the species to be conserved.     

飞行疲劳风险综合评价量化研究

飞行员疲劳会降低对情境意识的觉知,导致判断能力和操作能力下降,威胁飞行安全。对飞行员的疲劳状况进行综合量化评价可以为控制和缓解飞行疲劳风险提供有效依据。通过综合分析飞行疲劳影响因素,在确立飞行疲劳风险综合评价指标体系的基础上,采用证据理论解决评价过程中遇到的不确定性问题,结合MATLAB软件进行算例仿真验证,实现对飞行疲劳风险的量化。结果表明:证据理论方法可以有效利用影响疲劳的各种评价指标综合判断飞行员的疲劳状况,实现评价结果量化。结合MATLAB软件计算可以作为飞行员自我评价的有效工具,也可以作为管理人员进行疲劳风险管理的工具。     

基于证据理论的尾矿库安全评价

在尾矿库安全评价中,各种因素指标之间的关系存在不确定性,而证据理论作为一种处理不确定性的有效工具,已经被广泛应用到很多研究领域。本文尝试应用证据理论解决尾矿库安全评价中的不确定性问题,建立了基于D-S证据理论的尾矿库安全评价模型,并通过实例计算验证了证据理论应用于尾矿库安全评价的可行性和有效性。     

复杂污染场地的风险管理挑战及应对

复杂污染场地中土壤和地下水介质的非均质性、污染物形态归趋变化的复杂性是导致复杂污染场地调查、风险评估与修复过程存在较大不确定性的主要原因.基于侵入式采样和实验室样品分析等高成本调查技术无法理想反映复杂场地的真实污染分布,简单的定值风险评估结果则具有较大的不确定性,线性化场地管理技术体系不能适应复杂污染场地风险管理面临的不确定性挑战.结合国内外实践经验,本文提出"二精一优"的场地风险管理技术方法体系,即:①基于"有效数据理论"的定量测试与半定量实时监测技术相结合的精准调查技术;②基于污染物形态归趋规律,综合采用基于生物有效性、多证据和概率分析等多种手段的精细化风险评估技术;③动态调整优化的非线性场地风险管理技术框架.      

Historical and Geological Evidence for Seismic Origin of Newly Recognized Landslides in Southeastern Sicily, and Its Significance inTerms of Hazard

Old, large, and dormant landslides were unexpectedly found in southeastern Sicily, a territory of known seismicity but commonly considered as landslide-free or almost so. Purposely undertaken investigations revealed that: (1) these landslides are scarcely compatible with the local geoclimatic environment; (2) they usually show low-angle basal shear surfaces, despite the fact that the properties of the forming material are generally good; (3) they fulfill the known relationships between earthquake magnitude and epicenter–landslide distance; (4) sources coeval with high-energy historical earthquakes occurred in 1169, 1542 and 1693 testify to the occurrence of earthquake-triggered landsliding; and (5) documentary material (presented here for the first time) correlates with certainty a specific landslide to the 1693 earthquake. This geological and historical evidence, accompanied by the absence of contrasting elements, leads us to conclude that these landslides are earthquake-triggered. Because of their typological and geometrical characteristics, nearly all landslides can be reactivated, which has serious implications in terms of hazard, particularly with respect to lines of communication. Obviously, every action aimed at preventing or mitigating risks must start from the awareness of the causative processes, a condition substantially unsatisfied at the moment in SE Sicily. The paper concludes by emphasizing the opportunity not to trust excessively beliefs that, although shared, have never been really checked.     

运用证据权重与确定性系数合成模型进行钉螺-环境因子的空间关系研究

钉螺是血吸虫唯一中间宿主,研究钉螺与孳生环境因子的空间关系对采取有效的查螺、灭螺措施有重要的科学和社会价值。以鄱阳湖恒湖农场茶叶港草洲为研究对象,应用证据权重法与确定性系数法合成模型研究植物南荻、苔草、藜蒿、土壤温度、土壤湿度、导电率、海拔高程7个证据因子与"钉螺出现与否"的空间关系。结果表明:研究区内一定范围内高程的增加易于钉螺孳生;钉螺在湿度相对较大(大于0.35%(m~3/m~3))的环境中分布较少;苔草丰度过大(高于4 368 cm~3/m2)过小(低于1 457 cm~3/m2)都不利于钉螺孳生;钉螺较易孳生在南荻丰度较大(高于2 745 cm~3/m2)的区域;电导率较高(高于0.07 m S/cm)区域钉螺较少;土壤温度在16~20℃范围利于钉螺孳生。在模型预测结果图中,占研究区总面积13.7%的极高易发区的较小范围内预测到82%的钉螺空间分布,评价曲线的曲线下面积高达88.7%,说明模型的预测成功率很高,表明该模型适合研究区域钉螺孳生与其影响因子之间的空间关系。     

基于模糊层次分析法和证据推理的铁路应急预案评价研究

为解决铁路应急预案评价中存在的不确定性问题,提出基于证据推理的应急预案评价方法,从完整性、可操作性、针对性、协作性和可持续性5个维度构建应急预案评价指标体系;采用模糊层次分析法对指标权重进行计算,并通过证据推理对专家的评价数据进行证据合成,得到各预案评价等级分布;将各预案评价等级分布与评价效用结合,最终得到各预案评价排序。结果表明:实例分析表明,提出的评价方法对于处理不确定多属性的评价问题具有较强的可行性和适用性。     

A multidisciplinary weight of evidence approach for classifying polluted sediments: Integrating sediment chemistry, bioavailability, biomarkers responses and bioassays

Evaluation of chemical bioavailability and onset of biological alterations is fundamental to assess the hazard of environmental pollutants, particularly when associated to sediments which need to be removed. In the present work, five sediment samples were collected from the Venice Lagoon and data from sediment chemistry were integrated with those of bioaccumulation of chemicals in European eel (Anguilla anguilla) exposed under laboratory conditions, responses of a wide battery of biomarkers, and standardized ecotoxicological bioassays. The overall results were elaborated within a recently developed, software-assisted weight of evidence (WOE) model which provides synthetic indices for each of considered line of evidence (LOE), before a general evaluation of sediment hazard. Levels of chemicals in sediments were not particularly elevated when compared to sediment quality guidelines of Venice Protocol. On the other hand, bioavailability was evident in some samples for Cd, Cu, Zn and, especially, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. The ecotoxicological approach provided further evidence on the biological and potentially harmful effects due to released contaminants, and oxidative-mediated responses appeared of primary importance in modulating sublethal responses and the onset of cellular alterations. Biomarkers variations were sensitive, and more evident variations included significant changes of cytochrome P450 biotransformation pathway, antioxidant responses, onset of oxidative damages, lysosomal membrane stability and genotoxic effects. The results obtained from the battery of bioassays indicated that responses measured at organism level were in general accordance but less marked compared to the onset of sublethal changes measured through biomarkers. Overall this study revealed differences when comparing evaluations obtained from different LOEs, confirming the importance of considering synergistic effects between chemicals in complex mixtures. Compared to a qualitative pass-fail approach toward normative values, the proposed WOE model allowed a quantitative characterization of sediment hazard and a better discrimination of on the basis of various types of chemical and biological data.     

基于证据的熔融金属作业Safety Case方法

为定量表征熔融金属作业安全状态,采用Safety Case,GSN方法,对熔融金属作业影响因素、生产周期、作业区段等进行安全性分析,构建1种基于证据的熔融金属作业Safety Case方法框架;在此基础上,基于证据理论,构建安全论证数学模型,提出熔融金属作业Safety Case方法。最后,以某熔融金属作业系统为实例,对其安全状态进行论证,得出该熔融金属作业系统安全状态量值及安全状态。结果表明该方法在熔融金属作业安全论证方面具有一定的可行性与有效性,可为熔融金属作业安全论证提供思路与方法。