Effectiveness of Predator Removal for Enhancing Bird Populations

Abstract: Predation pressure on vulnerable bird species has made predator control an important issue for international nature conservation. Predator removal by culling or translocation is controversial, expensive, and time‐consuming, and results are often temporary. Thus, it is important to assess its effectiveness from all available evidence. We used explicit systematic review methodology to determine the impact of predator removal on four measurable responses in birds: breeding performance (hatching success and fledging success) and population size (breeding and postbreeding). We used meta‐analysis to summarize results from 83 predator removal studies from six continents. We also investigated whether characteristics of the prey, predator species, location, and study methodology explained heterogeneity in effect sizes. Removing predators increased hatching success, fledging success, and breeding populations. Removing all predator species achieved a significantly larger increase in breeding population than removing only a subset. Postbreeding population size was not improved on islands, or overall, but did increase on mainlands. Heterogeneity in effect sizes for the four population parameters was not explained by whether predators were native or introduced; prey were declining, migratory, or game species; or by the study methodology. Effect sizes for fledging success were smaller for ground‐nesting birds than those that nest elsewhere, but the difference was not significant. We conclude that current evidence indicates that predator removal is an effective strategy for the conservation of vulnerable bird populations. Nevertheless, the ethical and practical problems associated with predator removal may lead managers to favor alternative, nonlethal solutions. Research is needed to provide and synthesize data to determine whether these are effective management practices for future policies on bird conservation.     

PM10中重金属的健康风险评估及修正方法比较

通过对华南某电子垃圾拆解区PM₁₀中重金属含量特征分析,计算该地区的人群暴露量,评估人群健康风险,并引入靶器官毒性剂量法（TTD）和证据权重法（WOE）对常规评估方法的非致癌健康风险进行修正,比较探讨3种方法对非致癌健康风险评估结果的影响.结果表明：研究区域夏,冬季节的非致癌和致癌健康风险均为：儿童>成年女性>成年男性,重金属Ni对人群可能存在致癌风险（ILCR在10^-6~10^-4之间）.其中,Cr,Pb,Cd和As 4种重金属（类金属）对成年男性的非致癌健康风险值为3.05×10^-2,经TTD法和WOE法修正后为5.41×10^-2和5.4×10^-1,表明当综合考虑重金属作用的靶器官及重金属间的相互作用时,PM₁₀中重金属的非致癌健康风险值高于常规方法.     

新疆乌恰地区中新生代盆地寻找热卤水成因的超大型铅锌矿床的地球化学证据

采用微量元素地球化学方法 ,系统研究了新疆乌恰中新生代沉积盆地的成矿地球化学背景、区域化探异常特征、成矿过程中元素的再分配特征等 ,认为“三色”岩层和富含Pb、Zn、Ag、Cu、Sr等成矿及伴生元素的基底是形成热卤水成因的大型—超大型铅锌矿床的物质前提。成矿过程中微量元素的再分配特征更进一步证实了本区存在大规模的热卤水活动。与金顶铅锌矿床对比 ,二者的基底都富含金属元素 ,矿石物质组分和成矿元素相同、水系沉积物异常的元素组合类似。这些特征是本区寻找热卤水成因的大型—超大型铅锌矿床的十分重要的地球化学证据。乌拉根铅锌矿床和新发现的铅锌矿化点 (带 )均有规模大、强度高的Pb、Zn、Sr组合异常与之对应 ,预示本区有良好的找矿前景     

模糊证据权法在西藏一江两河流域耕地适宜性评价中的应用

开展耕地适宜性评价是编制农业发展规划、优化耕地资源配置的基础性工作。文章以西藏一江两河流域18 个县的耕地资源为评价对象,将模糊证据权模型引入到耕地适宜性评价中,通过该方法筛选出地形地貌、气候、土壤和水资源状况等4 个方面的9 个因子作为证据图层,并计算因子图层的模糊证据权重,最后综合各因子图层的证据权重参数得出后验概率并修正形成耕地适宜性分布图。结果表明：①80.83%的适宜样本点处于修正后验概率分级图的中等适宜级别及以上,即已知信息体现出较高的吻合性,表明模糊证据权模型能够科学、有效地评价耕地资源的适宜性;②集知识驱动与数据驱动一体化的模糊证据权模型既能够充分发挥先验知识、客观规律的作用,也可以通过隶属度函数增加知识干预,有效利用专家的丰富经验,在一定程度上克服了知识驱动方法中因子筛选和权重确定主观性强或纯粹数据驱动方法的不足;③研究区21.32×10⁴hm²的耕地资源中,高度适宜、中度适宜、一般适宜和不适宜的耕地资源分别占32.03%、31.94%、27.19%和8.84%,对应其空间分布情况,可以优化耕地资源规模与布局,指导高原耕地区农业生产实践,促进耕地资源的合理利用。     

Analysis of factors that influence hazardous material transportation accidents based on Bayesian networks: A case study in China

In this study, we applied Bayesian networks to prioritize the factors that influence hazardous material (Hazmat) transportation accidents. The Bayesian network structure was built based on expert knowledge using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, and the structure was modified based on a test for conditional independence. We collected and analyzed 94 cases of Chinese Hazmat transportation accidents to compute the posterior probability of each factor using the expectation-maximization learning algorithm. We found that the three most influential factors in Hazmat transportation accidents were human factors, the transport vehicle and facilities, and packing and loading of the Hazmat. These findings provide an empirically supported theoretical basis for Hazmat transportation corporations to take corrective and preventative measures to reduce the risk of accidents.     

基于D-S证据理论的地下洞室作业人员安全行为评价

为系统地评价地下洞室作业人员安全行为水平,综合运用集对分析和D-S证据理论,提出一种基于D-S证据理论的作业人员安全行为评价方法。首先,分析了影响作业人员安全行为的因素,构建包括作业人员安全素养、生理因素、心理因素、作业技术等4个一级指标及16个二级指标的综合评价指标体系,并将安全行为等级划分为4级;其次,采用集对分析处理二级指标的不确定性,产生基本信度分配函数（BPA）;然后,利用D-S证据理论,融合一级指标的BPA,产生最终安全等级隶属度;最后,结合最大隶属度原则和信任准则,确定地下洞室作业人员安全行为等级。以某水电站引水隧洞开挖工程为例,确定该工程中作业人员行为安全等级为z2级,即一般安全,符合工程实际。     

证据理论在港口航行环境安全组合评价中的应用

为解决不同方法用于港口航行环境的安全评价产生的结果不一致问题,利用证据理论善于发挥各评价方法的特性映射机理不同的长处,整合和协调相关证据的信息,获得最接近事实的评价结果。以中国沿海10个港口的航行环境安全程度为例,应用证据理论,把主成分分析法、因子分析法、逼近理想解排序法(Topsis)、模糊理论及灰色理论5种方法所得评价结果,作为支持航行安全的证据进行组合处理。所得结果经相关性检验并与原文献中众数理论组合评价结果作比较,其结果一致性较高。船长们认为基于证据理论的组合评价结果更符合实际,确认该方法可以在同类研究中普遍应用。     

基于Bayes判别模型的火场中铜导线短路熔痕 定量金相鉴定方法研究

借助计算机图像处理技术,改进了定量金相分析方法,测量了20个一次短路熔痕和20个二次短路熔痕的金相组织,对数据进行了主成分分析,提炼出了晶粒特征因子、气孔特征因子和复合因子三个主成分,基于Bayes判别法建立了火场中短路熔痕定量金相分析判别模型,经自身检验和交互检验,准确率均高于80%,充分满足鉴定要求,为更加有效地应用定量金相法鉴别短路熔痕提供了理论依据。     

Growth of non-English-language literature on biodiversity conservation

English is widely recognized as the language of science, and English-language publications (ELPs) are rapidly increasing. It is often assumed that the number of non-ELPs is decreasing. This assumption contributes to the underuse of non-ELPs in conservation science, practice, and policy, especially at the international level. However, the number of conservation articles published in different languages is poorly documented. Using local and international search systems, we searched for scientific articles on biodiversity conservation published from 1980 to 2018 in English and 15 non-English languages. We compared the growth rate in publications across languages. In 12 of the 15 non-English languages, published conservation articles significantly increased every year over the past 39 years, at a rate similar to English-language articles. The other three languages showed contrasting results, depending on the search system. Since the 1990s, conservation science articles in most languages increased exponentially. The variation in the number of non-English-language articles identified among the search systems differed markedly (e.g., for simplified Chinese, 11,148 articles returned with local search system and 803 with Scopus). Google Scholar and local literature search systems returned the most articles for 11 and 4 non-English languages, respectively. However, the proportion of peer-reviewed conservation articles published in non-English languages was highest in Scopus, followed by Web of Science and local search systems, and lowest in Google Scholar. About 20% of the sampled non-English-language articles provided no title or abstract in English; thus, in theory, they were undiscoverable with English keywords. Possible reasons for this include language barriers and the need to disseminate research in countries where English is not widely spoken. Given the known biases in statistical methods and study characteristics between English- and non-English-language studies, non-English-language articles will continue to play an important role in improving the understanding of biodiversity and its conservation.     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故隐患及风险的表征方法

为治理煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故隐患,管控其风险大小,基于证据对瓦斯爆炸事故隐患进行了系统辨识,利用逻辑图分析了隐患之间的耦合关系和风险演化路径;从事件发生的可能性、事件自身的严重性以及受体的暴露程度3个方面对瓦斯爆炸风险进行表征,并提出三维风险矩阵对事故风险进行分级评价。该方法可以为瓦斯爆炸事故隐患辨识、风险分析、风险评价以及设计事故预防措施提供借鉴。