系统操作者与管理者行为的博弈演化与收益分析*

为研究工程项目系统中,操作者安全行为与管理者奖惩行为的相互博弈情况,确定操作者和管理者收益,提出博弈演化与收益分析方法。操作者代表系统实际使用者,行为包括安全和不安全行为;管理者代表系统管理者和所有者,行为包括奖励和惩罚行为。确定方法的基本参数;研究博弈演化过程的博弈逻辑关系,从悲观和乐观角度研究二者不同行为相互作用后的收益关系,给出操作者收益和管理者收益的逻辑表达式。结果表明:方法能得到博弈过程演化结果,同时能根据收益结果表达式判断博弈胜出方。     

煤矿企业安全监管的反联盟博弈分析

在构建包含煤矿企业各利益相关者的安全博弈关系模型的基础上,重点探讨中央政府、地方政府、煤矿企业之间的博弈及其利益的得失,进而分析危机和矿难形成的原因和机理。研究表明:地方政府与煤矿企业之间具有共同的利益,联盟动力很强,二者的联盟是煤矿企业安全事故频发的主要原因;打破地方政府与煤矿企业之间联盟的根本是降低二者选择联盟策略的收益,压缩其博弈空间。     

我国东部沿海热带气旋演化特征研究

我国是遭受热带气旋灾害最为严重的国家之一.其年际年代际演化特征仍不清晰.采用中国气象局公布的1949?—?2018年的最佳路径数据集、登陆热带气旋名录以及HadlSST数据,探讨近70 a以来我国东部沿海热带气旋的时空演化特征及其与海表温度变化的内在关联.结果表明:(1)70 a间,热带气旋生成个数以及登陆我国东部沿海地区的个数略有波动,但超强热带气旋个数生成以及登陆我国的个数呈现明显增加趋势;登陆我国东部沿海地区的热带气旋大多生成于7、8、9月份,但4月以及11月也存在热带气旋生成并登陆现象.(2)登陆我国东部沿海地区的热带气旋主要生成于西北太平洋海域(432个)、南海海域(199个)和东海海域(28个),且主要在我国广东(220个)、海南(153个)、台湾(146个)、福建(47个)登陆.(3)热带气旋生成及登陆我国气旋与全球海表温度具有高度相关性;与西太平洋海温呈正相关,与东太平洋与印度洋海温呈负相关.     

天津城区夏冬季典型污染过程中BTEX变化特征及其健康风险评估

利用GC955在线气相色谱仪分别于2019年7月和2020年1月在天津市区开展苯系物(BTEX,包括苯、甲苯、乙苯、间/对-二甲苯和邻-二甲苯)实时在线观测,对典型污染过程中BTEX的浓度水平、组成及演化机制进行了研究,并运用特征物种比值法对BTEX的来源进行了定性分析,最后运用US EPA的人体暴露分析评价方法对BTEX健康风险进行评估.结果表明,臭氧和霾污染过程中BTEX体积分数平均值分别为1.32×10^-9和4.83×10^-9,其中苯的体积分数占比最大,其次是甲苯、乙苯和二甲苯占比最小.2020年1月BTEX体积分数很大程度上受到西南方向短距离传输的影响,而在2019年7月BTEX浓度受到本地排放的影响.BTEX浓度水平在2019年7月受到温度和相对湿度的共同影响,而在2020年1月当温度较低时BTEX浓度对相对湿度的变化更敏感.天津市区BTEX在霾污染过程中受生物质燃烧/化石燃料燃烧/燃煤排放的影响较大,而在臭氧污染过程中除了受到燃烧排放源影响,交通源排放在很大程度上也有影响.臭氧污染和霾污染过程中BTEX的HI分别为0.072和0....     

乡村振兴视域下农村土地利用利益相关者分析

乡村振兴的实施使得农村土地利用与管理面临更多的挑战。应用利益相关者分析、博弈均衡分析和实证案例分析,探讨乡村振兴视域下土地利用各利益相关者的关系演变。研究结果显示:(1)1949年至今,农村地区土地利用利益相关者主体数量增加,博弈关系呈现复杂化、多样化和多向化;(2)乡村振兴时期主要有六种博弈关系,并探讨了案例村实施下山脱贫、发展乡村旅游、新型经营主体进驻、城市居民促进农村发展四种博弈决策过程;(3)乡村振兴视域下,农村地区发展应关注基础设施配套、土地利用效率与生态环境协调、农户生计可持续性等问题。乡村振兴中应注重实现土地利用各利益相关者的最优均衡,降低各方风险,保护生态环境并寻求多方利益平衡。     

Fundamental Species Niche: Mechanism of Formation and Ecological Significance

Evolutionary stasis, or the long-term (over hundreds of thousands or even millions of years) existence of species in a phenotypically unchanging state, is conditioned by a counterbalance of directional selection vectors acting in opposition to one another. Fluctuations of living conditions for a species, leading to partial and often reversible disturbances of the counterbalance, lead to the development of redundant functional capacities of organisms. This redundancy determines the boundaries of the fundamental species niche and allows the realized niches of populations to change their spatiotemporal location within these boundaries without disturbing the counterbalance.     

政府管制与企业排污的博弈分析

本文利用经济学原理解释了企业肆意排污的原因，介绍了我国环境管制制度的基本情况，建立了排污管制的分析模型，依据该模型对政府管制与企业排污进行了博弈分析，提出了加强环境保护的建议。     

GAME-THEORETIC ANALYSES OF ENFORCEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS AND REGULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Game-theoretic models are developed for describing and analyzing the inspection and enforcement process, especially as it relates to environmental laws and regulations in North America. Based on these models, systems using irrevocable control orders can be compared to those relying on court determination of guilt and punishment. The cost-effectiveness of environmental enforcement can be systematically assessed in terms of factors such as the private gains for violators, the costs of inspection, penalties, and the social value of deterring violations. The policy implications of the analysis, especially with reference to environmental protection, are emphasized.     

On the minimum cost of an evolutionary strategy response to environment stress

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The tactics of mutual mate choice and competitive search

A model of mutual mate choice is described, formulated as a dynamic game, which yields predictions about mating behaviour under the influence of time constraints, choice costs and competition for mates. These variables were examined because they may result in a change in the distribution of qualities among unmated individuals of both sexes over the course of the breeding season. The model predicts that mutual choice gives rise to assortative mating, although high costs of choice and/or inaccurate assessment both lead to lower overall correlations between the qualities (or the attractiveness) of mates. When all individuals are present from the start of the breeding season, the correlation between the qualities of individuals pairing at a given time declines throughout the season, so that mates are more closely matched among individuals who pair early than among those who pair late (and extra-pair copulation may thus be more common among the latter). Delayed arrival of lower-quality individuals may, however, lead to an increase in this correlation with time during the early part of the season. The mean quality of unmated males and females declines over time, because more attractive individuals tend to mate sooner. As a result of this decline, and because of time constraints, superior individuals become less choosy as the season progresses. If choice is costly, however, then inferior individuals become more selective with time during the early part of the season, and the level of choosiness peaks later for such individuals. Received: 28 March 1996 / Accepted after revision: 21 September 1996