基于博弈分析的旅游购物市场转型升级研究

针对目前旅游购物市场存在的诸多问题,学者们提出了很多的措施,但对哪一种措施更有效却缺乏研究.以博弈论作为研究工具,通过在信息不完全状况下对旅游购物市场进行博弈分析,找出了其均衡解,得出了在信息不完全的状况下,旅游购物市场上必然会充斥大量劣质品的结论.再运用博弈论方法对旅游购物市场的两种转型升级策略进行了分析,探讨了在这两种转型升级策略下,旅游购物市场条件得到不同的改善.建议加强市场监督措施,使其更易于实施,效率更高;建立广泛的多部门综合执法的网络;鼓励大众监督.     

具有危险源性质的复杂系统安全行为演化研究

为解决具有危险源性质的复杂社会技术系统安全行为演化动力机制问题,针对系统生命周期长、影响因素多的特点,以日本福岛核泄漏事故为例,创建扩展型功能共振模型,用于描述系统内安全事故影响因素的作用过程。而后将系统相关主体分为实施方、业主方和第三方共3类,运用演化博弈方法深入研究发现,三方所承担的安全执行成本、安全处罚成本及事故成本之间的数量关系变化是系统安全行为演化发展的动力,3类成本失衡引发的监管机制失效是导致此次核泄漏事故的根源,并据此提出保持政府独立性和权威性、限制业主行为、建立项目责任主体终生追溯机制和采用立体处罚方式的建议。     

我国东部沿海热带气旋演化特征研究

我国是遭受热带气旋灾害最为严重的国家之一.其年际年代际演化特征仍不清晰.采用中国气象局公布的1949?—?2018年的最佳路径数据集、登陆热带气旋名录以及HadlSST数据,探讨近70 a以来我国东部沿海热带气旋的时空演化特征及其与海表温度变化的内在关联.结果表明:(1)70 a间,热带气旋生成个数以及登陆我国东部沿海地区的个数略有波动,但超强热带气旋个数生成以及登陆我国的个数呈现明显增加趋势;登陆我国东部沿海地区的热带气旋大多生成于7、8、9月份,但4月以及11月也存在热带气旋生成并登陆现象.(2)登陆我国东部沿海地区的热带气旋主要生成于西北太平洋海域(432个)、南海海域(199个)和东海海域(28个),且主要在我国广东(220个)、海南(153个)、台湾(146个)、福建(47个)登陆.(3)热带气旋生成及登陆我国气旋与全球海表温度具有高度相关性;与西太平洋海温呈正相关,与东太平洋与印度洋海温呈负相关.     

Spatial distribution of aerosol pollution based on MODIS data over Beijing, China

With the help of regression analysis,the relationships were detected between aerosol's contribution to apparent reflectance(ACR) derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)on board Terra and hourly PM_(10)mass concentration measured at 30 ground-based locations in Beijing for the August of 2003 and 2004.It was shown that there was a good correlation between the ACR and PM_(10)(linear correlation coefficient,R=0.56).On the basis of this relationship,spatial distribution and possible sources of PM_(10)derived from MODIS were analyzed and two frequently heavily-polluted regions were found,namely downtown of the city and the district near Xishan Mountain.These two regions coincidently are also urban heat island centers.The foundings of this paper will be greatly useful for environmental monitoring and urban planning for Beijing,especially for the 2008 Olympic game to be held in Beijing.     

考虑恐怖袭击下危险品运输安全监管的演化博弈与稳定性分析

为了提高恐怖袭击背景下的危险品运输安全水平和政府监管能力,首先构建政府监管部门、危险品运输企业和恐怖袭击者的三方演化博弈模型;其次引入政府动态惩罚机制和动态惩罚-补贴机制,进而采用系统动力学仿真分析动态惩罚和动态惩罚-补贴下的局中人的演化稳定策略。研究结果表明：给定情形下,引入动态惩罚机制能弥补原有模型没有稳定策略的不足;引入动态惩罚-补贴机制的模型可以演化出稳定的纯策略。     

Fundamental Species Niche: Mechanism of Formation and Ecological Significance

Evolutionary stasis, or the long-term (over hundreds of thousands or even millions of years) existence of species in a phenotypically unchanging state, is conditioned by a counterbalance of directional selection vectors acting in opposition to one another. Fluctuations of living conditions for a species, leading to partial and often reversible disturbances of the counterbalance, lead to the development of redundant functional capacities of organisms. This redundancy determines the boundaries of the fundamental species niche and allows the realized niches of populations to change their spatiotemporal location within these boundaries without disturbing the counterbalance.     

政府管制与企业排污的博弈分析

本文利用经济学原理解释了企业肆意排污的原因，介绍了我国环境管制制度的基本情况，建立了排污管制的分析模型，依据该模型对政府管制与企业排污进行了博弈分析，提出了加强环境保护的建议。     

GAME-THEORETIC ANALYSES OF ENFORCEMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL LAWS AND REGULATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Game-theoretic models are developed for describing and analyzing the inspection and enforcement process, especially as it relates to environmental laws and regulations in North America. Based on these models, systems using irrevocable control orders can be compared to those relying on court determination of guilt and punishment. The cost-effectiveness of environmental enforcement can be systematically assessed in terms of factors such as the private gains for violators, the costs of inspection, penalties, and the social value of deterring violations. The policy implications of the analysis, especially with reference to environmental protection, are emphasized.     

On the minimum cost of an evolutionary strategy response to environment stress

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The tactics of mutual mate choice and competitive search

A model of mutual mate choice is described, formulated as a dynamic game, which yields predictions about mating behaviour under the influence of time constraints, choice costs and competition for mates. These variables were examined because they may result in a change in the distribution of qualities among unmated individuals of both sexes over the course of the breeding season. The model predicts that mutual choice gives rise to assortative mating, although high costs of choice and/or inaccurate assessment both lead to lower overall correlations between the qualities (or the attractiveness) of mates. When all individuals are present from the start of the breeding season, the correlation between the qualities of individuals pairing at a given time declines throughout the season, so that mates are more closely matched among individuals who pair early than among those who pair late (and extra-pair copulation may thus be more common among the latter). Delayed arrival of lower-quality individuals may, however, lead to an increase in this correlation with time during the early part of the season. The mean quality of unmated males and females declines over time, because more attractive individuals tend to mate sooner. As a result of this decline, and because of time constraints, superior individuals become less choosy as the season progresses. If choice is costly, however, then inferior individuals become more selective with time during the early part of the season, and the level of choosiness peaks later for such individuals. Received: 28 March 1996 / Accepted after revision: 21 September 1996