针对瓦斯事故的安全投资效益评估方法研究

煤矿生产中瓦斯事故的发生及其危害程度的不确定性使得定量评价损失很困难.本文提出一种评估煤矿瓦斯事故严重程度和相关安全投资效益的方法.通过分析影响煤矿瓦斯事故发生的主要因素,利用专家调查法推断出瓦斯事故的发生概率和严重程度,进而估计出瓦斯事故的风险度并定量评价相关的安全投资效益.通过这种方法,可以提出各种安全投资方案并进行安全投资效益比较,据此选择安全投资效益最好的安全投资方案进行安全投资决策,最大限度地降低煤矿瓦斯事故的发生概率和危害程度.实例分析表明这种方法是有效的.     

基于FTA的矿井监控预警诊断知识表示及推理机制

当前的矿井监测监控系统给出的预警结果只能反映传感器所在位置的参数变化,并不能依此判断传感器所在位置就是故障源。研究矿井监控预警诊断专家系统,通过建立矿井通风系统故障树设计面向故障树的基于框架与规则的混合知识表示方法,利用框架中诊断规则的推理确定故障传播关系,找到故障源。设计了矿井监控预警诊断推理机制,利用监控系统对灾变时期的火灾和瓦斯大量涌出以及正常生产时期矿井中的活塞效应、巷道风阻变化、通风构筑物故障、爆破、通风动力故障以及自然风压变化进行故障诊断推理分析,给出监控预警诊断故障源分析界面,为管理人员对矿井正常生产和灾变时期的故障处理提供依据。     

Not seeing is not believing: volunteer beliefs about Burmese pythons in Florida and implications for public participation in invasive species removal

Public engagement is important to invasive species management, and recreational harvest programs are one way agencies seek to involve the public and raise awareness. We surveyed participants (n = 660) and non-participants (n = 77) in the 2013 Python Challenge^TM to understand whether this event achieved its primary goal of raising awareness of the ecological impact of Burmese pythons (Python molurus bivittatus) in south Florida. Respondents indicated a high level of ‘concern’ about the seriousness of the python problem and the need for management actions. Concern was affected positively by environmental motivations, experience of seeing pythons in the wild, older age, and female sex, but negatively by level of Python Challenge involvement. Results suggest that ‘proximate’ experience of not seeing a python may reduce concern, whereas ‘ongoing’ experience may temper concern without diminishing involvement. This research highlights the role of experience in shaping beliefs and advises diligence in public participation programs.     

提高环境规划CAP系统智能性的集成方法

为了解决环境规划的计算机辅助系统（ＣＡＰ系统）应用效果差的问题,笔者提出应该采用系统集成的方法,吸收人工智能技术,尤其是专家系统技术,从而改善ＣＡＰ系统的智能性．本文着重针对不同开发水平的ＣＡＰ系统,介绍了几种具体的集成方法：与知识处理模块的集成;与专家系统的集成;以及与多媒体技术的集成．     

汶川地震应急救援的成功经验及对完善我国应急管理的启示

汶川地震应急救援有8点成功经验:启动预案,响应迅速;统一指挥,协调联动;信息透明,发布及时;军民结合,平战结合;心理干预,及时疏导;社会动员,全民参与;心态开放,广纳外援;以人为本,全国举哀.在此基础上,文章阐述了它们对完善我国应急管理的重要启示.     

我国农村分散型污水处理设施与设备性能评估体系的建立

我国农村分散型污水处理设施与设备正处于向正规化和可持续化转变的关键阶段。如何构建具有我国特色的农村分散型污水处理设施与设备的完整评估体系,真实提供科学评估后的处理效率,从而切实提高真正具有长期稳定运行能力的适用技术与设备的应用比率,这是我国当前农村分散型污水处理中亟需解决的关键问题。通过对欧、美、日等发达国家(地区)分散型污水处理设施与设备性能评估体系的系统剖析发现,这些国家在构建相关上位法律的基础上,建立标准化的评估流程与多样化的性能评估内容是评估体系能够真正发挥作用的重要保证。我国未来的评估体系应首先考虑建立合格的独立第三方评估主体,保证认证过程的公正性与评估结果的公平性;其次,认证内容方面则应坚持多元化的性能认证,引导未来分散型污水处理“因地制宜”的发展趋势;第三,提倡在标准进水及变化条件下对多类污染物的去除效率评价,体现设施运维的操作便利性,为未来可能的工艺组合中提供准确的污染物单元削减能力。我国的分散型污水处理设施与设备的评估体系的建立将为当前各项繁杂技术的比对提供统一客观依据,进一步地规范污水处理技术与设施设备的市场化选择运行,有效推广低成本、低能耗、易维护、高效率污水处理技术的实际应用,从而为农村人居环境改善中“梯次推进农村生活污水治理”的目标奠定坚实的技术评价基础。     

石油化工企业安全距离确定方法综述

对"专家判断"法、确定性分析方法、基于风险(Risk-based)的方法和风险指引(Risk-informed)方法等安全距离确定方法的发展运用、分析流程、关键要素、优缺点等进行探讨。建议关注确定性分析方法和风险方法研究。对确定性分析方法,建议加强石油化工企业可信事故场景和伤害标准的研究;对基于风险的方法,建议加大风险指引方法的研究,并制定合理的石油化工企业风险标准,以便采取更加科学合理的方法来制定石油化工企业的安全距离。     

珍稀濒危植物评价分级专家系统研究

开列珍稀濒危植物的清单并划分其保护序列，是生物多样性保护的一项最基本的工作。本文通过对珍稀濒危植物评价分级指标的研究，以评价指标体系为基础，并引入专家系统方法，建立了珍稀濒危植物评价分级专家系统。该系统模拟人类专家的思维过程，将有助于把珍稀濒危植物优先保护级别的划分，由定性划分提高到定量定性相结合的水平。     

Proposal for a Transatlantic Platform for Consumer Concerns and International Trade

Consumer concerns pop up. They are relatedto the safety of agrifood products for people, foranimals, and for the environment as well as the socialand ethical implications of certain agrifoodproduction methods. At first sight, the WTO agreementand the SPS and TBT agreements appear to offersufficient legal scope to deal with these concerns andresolve trade conflicts. The events of recent years,however, have shown the limitations of theseagreements in dealing with cultural differencesbetween nations and in dealing with the social andpolitical pressure on national governments to lay downrestrictive, trade distorting measures. It is vitalthat we consider the dynamic relationship betweennational governments, civil society, and the market.In the United States, Canada, and Europe, thisrealization is growing. We propose that these issuesshould be studied by experts in several disciplines:technical experts, hygiene experts and veterinarians,public administration experts, lawyers, philosophers,ethicists, sociologists, and, of course, economists.To unite these disciplines and provide a platform fordiscussion in the light of international tradeliberalisation, the cultural identity of distinctcommunities, and the functioning of the democraticnation state an international network is needed. Wetherefore propose establishing a network to explorethe issues and dynamics described above. The networkshould be international and interdisciplinary withparticipants, initially, from science and government.The purpose of the network would be to present newperspectives to the negotiating parties in the nextWTO round. The first steps to development of thisnetwork have since been taken and an initial group hasbeen established.     

盘锦市农村污水治理成效及建议

针对盘锦市农村污水来源广、收集困难、治理难度大的现状,盘锦市制定了农村污水治理的3种处理模式和处理工艺。总结盘锦市农村污水治理实践取得的显著成效和经验,并对存在的问题提出建议。