Balancing Forest‐Regeneration Probabilities and Maintenance Costs in Dry Grasslands of High Conservation Priority

Abstract: Abandonment of agricultural land has resulted in forest regeneration in species‐rich dry grasslands across European mountain regions and threatens conservation efforts in this vegetation type. To support national conservation strategies, we used a site‐selection algorithm (MARXAN) to find optimum sets of floristic regions (reporting units) that contain grasslands of high conservation priority. We sought optimum sets that would accommodate 136 important dry‐grassland species and that would minimize forest regeneration and costs of management needed to forestall predicted forest regeneration. We did not consider other conservation elements of dry grasslands, such as animal species richness, cultural heritage, and changes due to climate change. Optimal sets that included 95–100% of the dry grassland species encompassed an average of 56–59 floristic regions (standard deviation, SD 5). This is about 15% of approximately 400 floristic regions that contain dry‐grassland sites and translates to 4800–5300 ha of dry grassland out of a total of approximately 23,000 ha for the entire study area. Projected costs to manage the grasslands in these optimum sets ranged from CHF (Swiss francs) 5.2 to 6.0 million/year. This is only 15–20% of the current total estimated cost of approximately CHF30–45 million/year required if all dry grasslands were to be protected. The grasslands of the optimal sets may be viewed as core sites in a national conservation strategy.     

Predicting categories of drugs used by suspected drug-impaired drivers using the Drug Evaluation and Classification Program tests

Objective: The purpose of this study was to statistically determine which combination(s) of drug-related signs and symptoms from the Drug Evaluation and Classification (DEC) protocol best predict the drug category used by the suspected drug-impaired driver.

Methods: Data from 1,512 completed DEC evaluations of suspected impaired drivers subsequently found to have ingested central nervous system (CNS) depressants, CNS stimulants, narcotic analgesics, and cannabis were analyzed using a multinomial logistic regression procedure. A set of evaluations completed on drug-free subjects was also included. The relative importance of clinical, behavioral, and observational measures in predicting drug categories responsible for impairment was also examined.

Results: Thirteen drug-related indicators were found to significantly contribute to the prediction of drug category, including being under the care of a doctor or dentist, condition of the eyes, condition of the eyelids, mean pulse rate, assessment of horizontal gaze nystagmus (HGN), convergence, performance on the One Leg Stand (OLS) Test, eyelid tremors, pupil size in darkness, reaction to light, presence of visible injection sites, systolic blood pressure, and muscle tone. Indicators related to the appearance and physiological response of the eye contributed the most to the prediction of drug category, followed closely by clinical indicators and performance on the psychophysical tests.

Conclusions: The findings from this study suggest that drug recognition experts (DREs) should be careful to review a set of key signs and symptoms when determining the category of drug used by suspected drug-impaired drivers. Drug use indicators related to the appearance and physiological response of the eye were found to contribute the most to the prediction of the drug category responsible for the impairment. These results could help form the basis of a core set of indicators that DREs could initially consult to form their opinion of drug influence. This in turn may enhance the validity, effectiveness, and efficiency of drug detection and identification by DREs and lead to a more effective and efficient DEC program, improved enforcement of drug-impaired driving, and greater acceptance of the DEC program by the courts.     

Testing Hypotheses of Bird Extinctions at Rio Palenque,Ecuador, with Informal Species Lists

Abstract: Informally gathered species lists are a potential source of data for conservation biology, but most remain unused because of questions of reliability and statistical issues. We applied two alternative analytical methods (contingency tests and occupancy modeling) to a 35‐year data set (1973–2007) to test hypotheses about local bird extinction. We compiled data from bird lists collected by expert amateurs and professional scientists in a 2‐km² fragment of lowland tropical forest in coastal Ecuador. We tested the effects of the following on local extinction: trophic level, sociality, foraging specialization, light tolerance, geographical range area, and biogeographic source. First we assessed extinction on the basis of the number of years in which a species was not detected on the site and used contingency tests with each factor to compare the frequency of expected and observed extinction events among different species categories. Then we defined four multiyear periods that reflected different stages of deforestation and isolation of the study site and used occupancy modeling to test extinction hypotheses singly and in combination. Both types of analyses supported the biogeographic source hypothesis and the species‐range hypothesis as causes of extinction; however, occupancy modeling indicated the model incorporating all factors except foraging specialization best fit the data.     

台北市生活垃圾管理经验及启示

台北市生活垃圾管理效果显著,人均生活垃圾日清运量年均减量7.3%、资源回收率年均增长28.3%并带动资源回收产业发展、居民负担仅为1998年的22.0%、社会成本较1998年减少30.7%。主要经验包括:明确的生活垃圾减量与资源回收目标;系统的管理模式设计,包括政府(环保局、地方清洁队、资源回收管理基金)、生产商、回收商、处理商、居民、垃圾焚烧厂和填埋场以及第三方等主要干系人。采取的主要政策手段包括强制源头分类、随袋征收垃圾处理费、建立资源回收管理基金、对资源回收行业的政策扶持以及信息公开与公众参与等。台北市先进的生活垃圾管理经验对中国大陆城市开展垃圾分类与资源化管理具有重要的参考价值。     

Active learning climate and employee errors: The moderating effects of personality traits

This study developed and tested a cross‐level model of the relationship between two components of active learning climate—enactive exploration and guided learning—and employee errors, and the moderating roles of the individual's traits of openness to experience and conscientiousness. The study examined the medical errors made by 142 resident physicians in 22 hospital departments. Results demonstrated significant interactions between climate and traits: when an individual had a low level of the trait of openness to experience, there was a curvilinear relationship between enactive exploration climate and number of errors. With a high level of openness to experience, the enactive exploration climate was positively associated with the number of errors up to a certain point. In addition, when an individual had a low level of conscientiousness, there was a negative association between guided learning climate and number of errors; with a high level of conscientiousness, there was a positive association between guided learning climate and number of errors. Thus, individual performance was better when the climate complemented the individual's lack of a trait. When the level of the individual's trait was high, the climate intensified the already pronounced trait up to an extent that impaired the individual's performance. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于模糊专家系统的垃圾焚烧底灰重金属污染风险评价

垃圾焚烧处理技术可以实现城市生活垃圾减量化,但底灰中重金属的存在与迁移转化会形成持续的潜在风险。针对重金属Cu、Cr、Pb和Cr对环境的潜在风险进行分析,将模糊专家系统引入潜在生态风险指数法中。首先将重金属的富集系数作为输入,然后应用知识库和推理机制来实现重金属对环境危害快速、不确定信息的准确推理,最后对城市生活垃圾焚烧底灰中重金属对环境的潜在风险进行评价。实验结果验证,该方法能够更快速、准确地做出适当的决定,为底灰的安全处置和再利用提供理论基础。     

Past On-Site Experience,Crowding Perceptions,and Use Displacement of Visitor Groups to a Peri-Urban National Park

Past on-site experience was linked to the crowding perceptions and use displacement of 383 on-site visitors to the peri-urban Danube Floodplains National Park, Austria. Three visitor groups were determined according to their area experience: local residents from Vienna and rural communities, having the highest level of experience; regional visitors from the city and eastern Austria; and tourists from Austria and abroad with the lowest degree of experience. Crowding perceptions were significantly different across the user groups. More than 50% of local residents perceived the national park as crowded, whereas only 27% of regional visitors and 19% of tourists reported such an evaluation. Even among local residents and regional visitors, respondents with more on-site experience expressed a greater impression of a crowded park. Differences in crowding evaluations between local rural and urban residents and between regional rural and urban visitors were not found. For 27% of local residents and 15% of regional visitors, use levels were so unacceptable that they displaced temporally and spatially, whereas use displacement was relatively irrelevant for tourists. The use displacement strategies involved differ among the three user groups. Management implications were discussed, taking the specific situation of the small national park on the urban-rural fringe into consideration.     

国际经验对中国西部地区绿色发展的启示:政策及实践

在当下全球经济萧条和发展中国家日益增长的巨大需求背景下,中国西部需要绿色发展,国际经验可以起到前车之鉴和抛砖引玉的作用.以OECI国家为主,基于实地考察调研和座谈、以及文献资料分析,总结了其绿色发展相关政策建议以及典型案例区实践活动在推进区域绿色发展中的作用和经验,涉及政策框架和路线图制定、绩效监测评估、经济建设和环境保护同步发展、生态补偿、绿色就业和扶贫等.重点分析了OECD国家以往推进绿色经济发展的结构调整与改革的经验,如澳大利亚水资源管理、矿产业开发和生物库的例子;加拿大采用经济手段保护生物多样性的案例;瑞士农业旅游和西班牙绿色工业发展的案例;以及澳大利亚实施“清洁可持续技能培训计划”的经验等.尽管各个国家由于制度、经济体制、发展水平的差异,在推进绿色发展的具体战略措施和行动方案等方面存在差异,但一些共同认可的经验和成功案例对中国西部绿色发展起步实施具有一定的借鉴和指导作用.根据这些国际经验分析,本文提出了对中国西部绿色发展的五点启示,主要包括:①制定绿色发展的制度安排和路线图;②开展动态的绩效监测评估与考核,建立切合实际的可量化的考核体系;③建立生态产权或自然资源产权交易市场化的激励机制,并选择典型区先行先试,建立长期稳定有效的生态补偿机制;④利益相关者积极主动参与到绿色发展的进程之中;⑤提供绿色就业机会,提高劳动力技能和素质.     

灾害地貌专家系统试验研究

介绍了灾害地貌专家的建造原理与方法,阐述了灾害地貌专家知识的分类分级方法,讨论了灾害地貌专家系统中知识表示的基本原则和知识库中专家知识的组织方式,以及推理机的设计和推理规则的构造原理与方法。系统采用压缩编码方式存储各种地学专题图形和遥感图像数据,具有与图像的存储更新,查询检索、分析处理、图像显少自动制图功能。该系统可以对灾害地貌过程进行专家级的预测和评价,并对灾害地貌的综合治理与区域规划提出几种可