Double exposure and the climate gap: changing demographics and extreme heat in Ciudad Juárez,Mexico

Scholars have recognised a climate gap, wherein poor communities face disproportionate impacts of climate change. Others have noted that climate change and economic globalisation may mutually affect a region or social group, leading to double exposure. This paper investigates how current and changing patterns of neighbourhood demographics are associated with extreme heat in the border city of Juárez, Mexico. Many Juárez neighbourhoods are at-risk to triple exposures, in which residents suffer due to the conjoined effects of the global recession, drug war violence, and extreme heat. Due to impacts of the recession on maquiladora employment and the explosion of drug violence (2008–2012), over 75% of neighbourhoods experienced decreasing population density between 2000 and 2010 and the average neighbourhood saw a 40% increase in the proportion of older adults. Neighbourhoods with greater drops in population density and increases in the proportion of older residents over the decade are at significantly higher risk to extreme heat, as are neighbourhoods with lower population density and lower levels of education. In this context, triple exposures are associated with a climate gap that most endangers lower socio-economic status and increasingly older-aged populations remaining in neighbourhoods from which high proportions of residents have departed.     

AN INTERACTIVE SIMULATION OF PUMPED STORAGE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS1

ABSTRACT: A combination pumped storage reservoir system was simulated by modifying the WRE deep reservoir model. Each of the two reservoirs was described by a copy of the WRE model program, the two programs were converted into subroutines and were called upon alternately by a main program. Operationally, the contributing reservoir, i.e., the reservoir from which flow was discharged, was simulated for one execution interval (1 hour), followed by simulating the receiving reservoir for the same execution interval. The main program directed the discharge temperature of the contributing reservoir for each execution interval as input for simulating the receiving reservoir. The two subroutines were run in this interactive mode for a simulation period of one year. Two simulations, labeled “Pump” and “Net,” were effected and differed basically in the distribution of flow volumes exchanged between the reservoirs. In the ‘Pump’ simulation the total hourly flow volumes were distributed into appropriate horizontal layers of the lakes as determined by temperature-density relationships, i.e., the pumped discharges were distributed into the upper lake and the generation discharges were distributed into the lower lake. In the ‘Net’ simulation only the net daily discharges (daily difference between pump-back and generation at the upper dam), distributed uniformly over 24 hours, were mixed into the horizontal layers of the two lakes. Both simulations produced annual thermal regimes that were apparently within reason for the geographical area and the nature of the input data. However, neither accurately reflected a generalized conditions for the reservoirs because the Pump simulation reflected conditions in the forebay and tailrace of the Upper dam while the Net simulation reflected conditions of the remaining parts of the reservoirs.     

ENSO对我国东部极端降水的季节影响

利用百分位法定义极端降水阈值,对我国东部地区极端降水在不同季节对ENSO的响应特征加以研究,并以湿位涡作为切入点从大气性质角度出发分析其可能成因。结果表明：暖、冷年当年夏季极端降水对比显著区域主要在华北地区东部,分别表现为负距平区和正距平区;在暖年次年夏季和春季分布形有相似之处,北方多极端降水,南方分布形势较为复杂,江南地区也有极端降水大值区;次年秋季,与春夏季相比,极端降水大值区主要分布在北方;到了次年冬季,整个东部地区以极端降水负距平为主,冷年次年四季极端降水基本呈相反的分布形势;对应的湿位涡场能很好的反映北方地区尤其是华北地区的大气稳定性,而在低纬度地区还不能作为很好预测极端降水分布情况的依据     

干旱区极端环境下营造固沙林的探讨

干旱区环境极端恶劣,近年来,由于人为干扰,荒漠化面积扩大,使本以脆弱的生态系统逆向发展,给人们生活带来影响。因此,目前防沙治沙已成为一件意义重大而又十分艰巨的任务。其中,林业的建设有不可替代的作用,在固沙林营造过程中,要因地制宜,切合实际,选择适宜的树种,合理的搭配,以水为平衡中心,确定适当的种植密度,建立一个完善的固沙林体系。本文着重讨论固沙林营造的措施。     

ENSO: EXTREME CLIMATE EVENTS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON ASIAN DELTAS1

ABSTRACT: Proxy climate data for the last 500 years collected from the archives of counties in the Yangtze River Delta, China, were analyzed to identify the occurrence of extreme climate events, the pattern of such occurrences and their relationships to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study identified the cycle periods of 3.5, 5.5 and 8.6 years for floods and 18.5 years for droughts in the Yangtze River Delta during the last 500 year period and noted 16 regional (delta wide) extreme events during this period. All regional (delta wide) extreme climate events during the last 500 years (since 1500 A.D.) occurred either during or immediately after ENSO (5–6 year) activities. Hydrological impacts of extreme climate events, such as major floods and droughts, on human systems have long been among the foremost concerns of the Pacific Rim countries. Management of systems increasingly dominated by humans, such as Asian delta regions, should, therefore, include consideration of major climate variability, ENSO events and the extent of climate changes, as well as consideration of the trends associated with human growth and institutional changes.     

THE INFLUENCE OF SPRING AND FALL TEMPERATURES ON THE AVOIDANCE RESPONSE OF JUVENILE ATLANTIC MENHADEN,BREVOORTIA TYRANNUS,EXPOSED TO SIMULTANEOUS CHLORINE-δT CONDITIONS1

ABSTRACT: The avoidance response of groups of juvenile Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, was evaluated by exposing test species to a range of simultaneous total residual chlorine (TRC) (0.00, 0.05, 0.10, and 0.15 mg/L) and elevated temperature (0, 2, 4, and 6°C) conditions simulating power plant discharges. This species was tested at both 15 and 20°C to determine possible effects of acclimation temperature on the avoidance response. These temperatures were selected to represent spring or fall thermal conditions when most East Coast power plant facilities initiate power plant chlorination in the spring or terminate the use of this biocide in the fall. An unbalanced 3-factor factorial design was used to develop response surface avoidance models at 15 and 20°C. The model developed at 15°C showed: (1) an increase in avoidance occurred at all δT conditions as TRC increased from 0.00 to 0.05 mg/L; (2) a greater degree of avoidance occured at TRC concentrations above 0.05 mg/L at all δT conditions; and (3) TRC was the most important term inflencing avoidance. The model for Atlantic menhaden at 20°C showed: 1) avoidance increased with increasing TRC concentration at each δT condition; (2) avoidance did not necessarily increase with increasing δT's at each TRC concentration; (3) greatest avoidance occured at 0°C δT and 0.15 mg/L TRC; and (4) TRC was the most important term influencing avoidance. There was a significant difference (p < 0.00001) between avoidance models at 15 and 20°C. However, when extreme conditions of 0.15 mg/L TRC and 0–6°δT were compared, the degree of avoidance responses (percent time in control area) was similar.     

Characteristics of pellets with immobilized activated sludge and its performance in increasing nitrification in sequencing batch reactors at low temperatures

Immobilized pellets obtained by means of entrapping activated sludge in waterborne polyurethane were successfully adapted in ammonium(NH_4~+–N)synthetic wastewater.Its physicochemical characteristics were determined using scanning electron microscope,pyrosequencing,and microelectrodes,and its influence on the nitrification process in sequencing batch reactors(SBRs)at low temperatures was evaluated.A large number of rod-shaped bacteria were observed on the surface of the immobilized pellet,in which Rudaea spp.(Xanthomonadaceae family)was an important bacterial component(23.44% of the total bacteria).The oxygen uptake rate of immobilized pellets reached 240.83±15.59 mg O_2/(L·hr),and the oxygen was primarily consumed by the bacteria on the pellet surfaces(0–600μm).The dosing of the pellets(30 m L/L)into an SBR significantly improved the nitrification efficiency at low temperatures of 7–11°C,achieving an average NH_4~+–N removal of 84.09%,which is higher than the removal of 67.46% observed for the control group.     

Mapping vulnerability to extreme heat events: lessons from metropolitan Chicago

In this paper, we develop an approach for identifying the location of populations most vulnerable to extreme heat events and how those locations change over time. We scan the literature on measuring vulnerability, especially sensitivity and adaptive capacity of populations. We employ Census data for metropolitan Chicago for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010, and maximum likelihood factor analysis to derive an index and map the distribution of Census tracts where residents exhibit greater sensitivity and/or lower adaptive capacity to extreme heat. Our findings show a pattern of deconcentration and decentralization of these populations within the city and region over time, with gentrification and the suburbanization of poverty trends observed in many US metropolitan regions as possible contributing factors. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings for planning efforts in the study area and offer suggestions for further research.     

Identification of the largest individual sample value using composite sample data and certain modifications of the sweep-out method

Cost-effective hotspot identification is an important issue in hazardous waste site characterization and evaluation. Composite sampling techniques are known to be cost effective when the cost of measurement is substantially higher than the cost of sampling. Although compositing incurs no loss of information on the means, information on individual sample values is lost due to compositing. In particular, if the interest is in identifying the largest individual sample value, the composite sampling techniques are not able to do so. Under certain assumptions, it may be possible to satisfactorily predict individual sample values using the composite sample data, but it is not generally possible to identify the largest individual sample value. In this paper, we propose two methods of identifying the largest individual sample value with some additional measurement effort. Both methods are modifications of the simple sweep-out method proposed earlier. Since analytical results do not seem to be feasible, performance of the proposed methods is assessed via simulation. The simulation results show that both the proposed methods, namely the locally sequential sweep-out and the globally sequential sweep-out, are better than the simple sweep-out method.Prepared with partial support from the Statistical Analysis and Computing Branch, Environmental Statistics and Information Division, Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC under a Cooperative Agreement Number CR-821531. The contents have not been subjected to Agency review and therefore do not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.