云南极端霜冻气候事件的气候特征及环流背景分析

利用云南124个气象站逐日最低气温和天气现象(霜)资料,计算最低气温低于-5℃的站点数占全省总站数的比例,定义站点比例超出25%的霜冻事件为云南极端霜冻气候事件。分析了云南极端霜冻气候事件的气候特征及环流背景。结果表明,云南极端霜冻事件发生前气温偏低,云量偏多;霜冻发生时夜间晴朗,辐射散热强烈,气温再度下降。这种霜冻属于混合霜冻或称为平流辐射霜冻。极端霜冻气候事件发生的主要原因之一是高空冷平流与底层冷高压控制下夜间晴空辐射冷却降温。发生时空气湿度较发生前小,空气相对干燥。     

Past and Present Permafrost Temperatures in the Abisko Area: Redrilling of Boreholes

Monitoring of permafrost has been ongoing since 1978 in the Abisko area, northernmost Sweden, when measurements of active layer thickness started. In 1980, boreholes were drilled in three mires in the area to record permafrost temperatures. Recordings were made twice per year, and the last data were obtained in 2002. During the International Polar Year (2007–2008), new boreholes were drilled within the ‘Back to the Future’ (BTF) and ‘Thermal State of Permafrost’ (TSP) projects that enabled year-round temperature monitoring. Mean annual ground temperatures (MAGT) in the mires are close to 0°C, ranging from −0.16 to −0.47°C at 5 m depth. Data from the boreholes show increasing ground temperatures in the upper and lower part by 0.4 to 1°C between 1980 and 2002. At one mire, permafrost thickness has decreased from 15 m in 1980 to ca. 9 m in 2009, with an accelerating thawing trend during the last decade.     

Projecting Spatial Patterns of Flood Hazard: Recent Climate and Future Changes over Yangtze River Basin

Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results ...     

海上超高温高压钻井井筒温度压力场耦合研究

为研究海上超高温高压钻井井筒温度压力的变化规律,基于流体力学和传热学理论,考虑超高温高压井筒环境对钻井液密度以及钻井液流变参数的影响,建立海上超高温高压钻井井筒温度压力耦合预测模型,并利用实例井现场随钻数据进行模型验证,分析正常钻进期间井筒温度压力的变化规律。研究结果表明：对井筒温度而言,钻井液流变性变化的影响大于钻井液密度变化的影响,耦合计算温度结果要大于不耦合计算的温度值,且两者之间的温差随井深的增加越来越大;对井筒压力而言,钻井液密度变化对当量循环密度ECD(equivalent criculating density)的影响要大于流变性对ECD的影响,且耦合计算的ECD要小于不耦合计算的ECD值。该耦合模型可以提高井筒温度压力的预测与控制精度,并降低超高温高压地层窄密度窗口中的安全钻进风险,研究结果对超高温高压钻井精准的井筒温度压力预测及控制具有重要意义。     

我国公路交通防抗极端天气灾害的应急探讨

极端天气事件将变得更加频繁和剧烈,为了提高我国公路交通防抗极端天气灾害的应急能力,采用分析对比和调查研究的方法,探讨我国公路交通在防抗2008年南方大雪灾中的应急管理工作与处置技术,研究国内外目前应对极端天气的成功经验。结果表明:我国公路交通防抗极端天气灾害主要在组织机构、责任机制、信息渠道和处置技术等方面存在问题。通过提出我国公路交通防抗极端天气应急处置的具体流程,可以迅速控制、减轻和消除公路交通极端天气引起的危害,及时恢复公路交通正常通行。     

Effect of typhoon with extreme precipitation on mountain reservoir drinking water treatment: a case study in Ningbo,China

Due to frequent drinking water pollution accidents in the past decade, it is common that mountain reservoirs were used as the source of drinking water in China. However, some coastal areas frequently suffer from typhoon with extreme precipitation, which results in the water quality deterioration of the reservoirs. The influence of typhoons with extreme precipitation on Jiaokou reservoir and the emergency treatment process of Maojiaping water treatment plant in the past three typical typhoons with extreme precipitation from the year of 2012–2015 were studied. It was found that the degradation of water quality, such as the increase of turbidity and bacteria index, may not merely appear during the events, but last for several days. Changing the dosage of water purification agent, such as coagulant and disinfectant at right time and place may be an efficient emergency water treatment process. Based on the analysis of water quality variation rule during and after the events, it was also found that emergency treatment can be fully prepared before the arrival of a typhoon with extreme precipitation. And in order to better respond to the typhoon with extreme precipitation, several suggestions are also proposed in this paper as follows: establishing vegetated buffers at right place, such as macrophanerophytes, shrub or herbage, increasing investments in infrastructure management, merging or cancelling the small-scale water treatment plants, preparing adequate water purification agent before the typhoon comes, etc.     

新疆极端降水概率分布特征的时空演变规律

依据新疆地区53个雨量站1957-2009年日降水资料,根据研究需要,定义了8个极端降水指标。运用K-S法确定降水指标最适概率分布函数,确定10年一遇极端降水量值;在此基础上,采用Copula非参数估计方法,通过Akaike information criterion(AIC)法确定两降水指标联合分布函数,系统分析1980年以后极端降水单变量极值及降水极值二维联合概率分布特征变化的时空演变特征,研究结果表明:①新疆有湿润化趋势,北疆湿润化趋势比南疆显著;②从降水天数和极端降水天数角度来看,新疆极端强弱降水同时出现的概率减小,从极端降水雨量和强度来看新疆中部、南疆西部、北疆东部及北部极端强弱降水同时出现的可能性减小,而天山西部与南疆北部的可能性增加;③1980年后新疆地区发生涝的概率增大,发生旱的概率减少。     

自来水中氯消毒能力在不同温度下的变化规律研究

重庆市地处中亚热带季风性湿润气候地区,四周被高山环绕形成独特山地丘陵地形,具有季节气温变化特殊的局地性和代表性.分别监测2014年全年的月平均气温与月平均水温,作出了全年月平均气温与月平均水温变化趋势图,并根据趋势图选定在10℃,15℃,24℃,30℃四个典型不同季节温度下,通过监测相同初始余氯值的出厂水中余氯衰减规律,发现余氯衰减速率随温度变化大小各异,衰减系数排列为:K30℃>K24℃>K15℃>K10℃.根据出厂水在管网中水力停留时间的长短,可随季节温度变化适当调整出厂水加氯量,优化生产效果,节约加氯成本,降低饮水风险.     

Foot model for tracking temperature of safety boot insoles: application to different insole materials in firefighter boots

This research is based on the development of a human foot model to study the temperature conditions of a foot bottom surface under extreme external conditions. This foot model is made by combining different manufacturing techniques to enable the simulation of bones and tissues, allowing the placement of sensors on its surface to track the temperature values of different points inside a shoe. These sensors let researchers capture valuable data during a defined period of time, making it possible to compare the features of different safety boots, socks or soles, among others. In this case, it has been applied to compare different plantar insole materials, placed into safety boots on a high-temperature surface.     

基于人工神经网络的燃煤烟气脱汞效率预测

针对燃煤烟气单质汞(Hg0)的脱除效率,采用神经网络遗传算法模拟寻优的方法获得最佳运行参数,并探讨多影响因子同时改变时脱汞效率的变化规律。利用田口试验方法设计试验,在固定床试验台架上考察负载量、煅烧温度、反应温度对脱汞效率的影响;采用64组试验数据对设计的多层神经网络进行训练、验证及测试,关联系数(R)在0.96以上,均方误差(Mean Squared Error,MSE)为0.007;对训练后的神经网络采用遗传算法进行多影响因子极值寻优。结果表明:采用硝酸锰浸渍催化剂的最优脱汞效率为95.1%;负载量为15%时,最佳脱汞效率、反应温度、煅烧温度分别为94.6%、141.8℃、445.2℃,进一步用试验验证了寻优结果的准确性。