Projecting Spatial Patterns of Flood Hazard: Recent Climate and Future Changes over Yangtze River Basin

Projection of hazard changes in climate extremes is critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Using simulations of providing regional climates for impacts studies, five indicators (rainstorm days, maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance from river or lake) were selected to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Yangtze River Basin for the baseline period (1961– 1990) and future (2011–2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results ...     

城市火险预警中的火源综合指标的探讨

提出将环境气象因素与火源综合指数分离的方式建立城市火险预警方程的方法,并分析讨论了南京市1991～1996年的火源综合指数的变化特征。分析结果表明火源综合指数有显著的季节变化,并且随着城市的结构和规模及消防措施的改变,火源综合指数存在着年际的趋势变化。     

Wireless alerts for extreme weather and the impact on hazard mitigating behavior

Wireless alerts delivered through mobile phones are a recent innovation in regulatory efforts toward preparation for extreme weather events including flash floods. In this article, we use difference-in-differences models of the number of car accidents from days with government issued alerts for flash flood events in Virginia. We find that wireless alert messages for flash flood warnings reduced car accidents by 15.9% relative to the counterfactual with non-wireless alert protocols. We also use a regression discontinuity model to analyze hourly traffic volume data immediately before and after a flash flood warning message is issued. We find that traffic volume is reduced by 3.1% immediately following the issuance of a wireless alert relative to before the alert. These results imply that wireless alert messages effectively reduce exposure to hazards associated with extreme weather.     

河北海岸带大雾特征分析及天气概念模型

利用2001—2010年乐亭、秦皇岛大雾监测的252个个例及Micaps3．0常规资料,分析了河北海岸带大雾的时空尺度分布特征,初步建立大雾天气概念模型。研究结果显示：2001—2010年大雾年际变化不大,2005年达到日数最少为17次,2006年达到最多为34次;大雾日具有明显的月变化,一年当中各月均有大雾出现,其中以11~12月大雾日数最多,8~9月次之,其他各月较少;南到东南风、弱的均压场、适宜的海温均有利于产生大雾天气。     

三峡水库上游流域大洪峰暴雨天气系统分析

选择三峡水库入库流量代表洪水强度,以长江上游组成宜昌洪水来源的岷沱江、嘉陵江、乌江、宜宾-重庆、重庆-万州、万州-宜昌为主要流域;把出现历史前3名大洪峰的1981年、1998年和2010年汛期作为切入点,针对直接诱发3次大洪峰的暴雨过程,利用长江上游六大流域实况面雨量、宜昌流量和水位,以及NCEP数值产品的客观分析等资料,采用天气分析、波谱分析方法,分析了对流层中低层主要天气系统,以及200 hPa南亚高压和地面冷空气的情况。指出了3次大洪峰暴雨的环流特征、风场特征、超长波和长波特征等,为三峡水库气象保障服务提供了洪峰暴雨的天气背景。     

云南极端霜冻气候事件的气候特征及环流背景分析

利用云南124个气象站逐日最低气温和天气现象(霜)资料,计算最低气温低于-5℃的站点数占全省总站数的比例,定义站点比例超出25%的霜冻事件为云南极端霜冻气候事件。分析了云南极端霜冻气候事件的气候特征及环流背景。结果表明,云南极端霜冻事件发生前气温偏低,云量偏多;霜冻发生时夜间晴朗,辐射散热强烈,气温再度下降。这种霜冻属于混合霜冻或称为平流辐射霜冻。极端霜冻气候事件发生的主要原因之一是高空冷平流与底层冷高压控制下夜间晴空辐射冷却降温。发生时空气湿度较发生前小,空气相对干燥。     

Direct and indirect effects of weather experiences on life satisfaction – which role for climate change expectations?

This paper deals with the effect of (1) damage experience from extreme weather events and (2) expectations concerning future climate change on subjective well-being (SWB). We use data from a large representative survey carried out amongst German households. The effect of experienced weather events on the SWB of the heads of households is significant only in the case of heat waves; the same cannot be said for storms, heavy rain, and floods. Concerns about future climate change in households have a substantial negative impact on current SWB. In addition, we divide the impact of experience into direct and indirect effects of damage, deduced from the impact of experience on expectations regarding future climate change. Both direct and indirect effects of weather experiences are quantified. It becomes apparent that the indirect effect is significant, but small when compared to the direct effect.     

考虑数据去噪分解的滑坡位移组合预测研究

为准确掌握滑坡位移变化规律,基于滑坡变形监测结果统计,对位移数据进行去噪分解处理,将滑坡位移数据分解为趋势项和误差项,并分别利用优化多核极限学习机和Arima模型构建预测模型,以实现滑坡位移的组合预测.结果表明:Morlet复小波较传统去噪模型分解效果更优,且通过优化处理,能更好地提高其分解能力;通过对多核极限学习机的...     

Impact of an Extreme Flood Event on Streambank Retreat: Cedar River,Nebraska, USA

The 2010 dam breach and consequent anomalous flood event on the Cedar River in Nebraska, USA provided an opportunity to study the following objectives: (1) evaluate the impact of an extreme flood event on streambank retreat along a 45 km stretch relative to the average annual retreat; (2) quantify the changes in streambank retreat for each km segment downstream of the breach; and (3) examine the influence of riparian vegetation and radius of curvature on meander bank erosion rate. During the hydrologic event, discharge peaked at nearly three times greater than the next highest recorded rate and equated to a return period of 2,000 years. Aerial images and ArcGIS were utilized to calculate the average annual streambank retreat for each year during the preflood (2006–2010), flood (2010), and postflood (2010–2016) periods. The 2010 flood period had a significantly higher average annual streambank retreat of 2,820 m²/km/yr than the preflood and postflood periods, which, respectively, measured 576 and 384 m²/km/yr. From 2006 to 2016, 29% of all streambank erosion was from this one extreme flood event, thus demonstrating the impact that one extreme flood event can have on streambank retreat and the geomorphology of a stream system.     

雾霾天气背景下大气环境监测质量的提升路径研究

本文主要针对雾霾天气背景下大气环境监测质量的提升路径展开深入研究,先阐述了大气环境监测质量的提升重要性,比如有利于提高环境污染的防治水平、有利于不断提高城市环境规划水平等,然后重点提出了几点可行的提升路径,主要包括制定大气环境监测质量保障体系、加强环境质量监测网络建设、加强大气环境监测采样管理、加强3S技术的应用、加强监测监察联动协调机制、扩大大气环境质量评价范围等,确保监测数据与完整性和准确性相符,确保大气环境监测质量的稳步提升,以创建节能减排、生态环保的节约型社会。