轮胎低温耐久性能试验台架研究

针对轮胎冬季耐久试验中低温开裂现象和耐久试验的环境限制,设计开发一套模拟整车状态下轮胎低温运行状态的试验台架。该台架系统包括低温环境仓,低温控制系统,执行机构和控制机构四部分。根据冬季黑河实际道路试验确定台架试验的试验车速、环境温度、运行载荷、定位角度、运行周期以及运行里程。通过对比试验和验证试验结果显示:当失效率为10%时(即轮胎B10寿命),试验台误差在10%以内,验证了新开发试验台的有效性,为考核同类型轮胎低温性能提供了有效途径。     

Environmental restoration of invaded ecosystems: How much versus how often?

This paper derives the optimal level of restorative efforts required to restore environments degraded by invasive species invasion. Specific attention is focused on a case when restoration faces the risk of failure through relapse of the restored environment caused by repeat invasions. The level of restored environment may also play a role in its future improvement or susceptibility to failure. The tradeoff between the optimal level of environmental quality and number of restorative efforts required to attain that given environmental quality is highlighted.     

接管高应变区缺陷的安全评定概率方法研究

随着计算机技术飞速发展,Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法在压力容器可靠性分析中得到广泛应用。但对于小概率情形,利用直接抽样的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法进行失效概率计算,费用较高。为此,笔者提出了几种新的失效概率近似计算方法,并以压力容器接管为例,对其断裂失效概率进行了计算,同时还和直接抽样的Ｍｏｎｔｅ Ｃａｒｌｏ 法的计算数值进行了比较。结果表明,新的失效概率近似计算方法具有精度高、节省机时的优点。     

危险评价中的数据环境

本文通过分析危险评价的数据来源、数据的准确程度和危险评价模型，论述了数据环境与危险评价的关系，指出了数据的不确切必然会影响到危险评价质量，但应用数据进行危险评价是完全必要的。关键是如何提高数据的精确程度和模型的真实程度，使评价结果更趋准确、可靠。     

影响大型复杂机械钢结构系统可靠性的因素分析

以结构力学为理论依据,以有限单元法为基础,借助和参考有关有限元程序设计方法,按照结构系统可靠性失效模式分析的要求,采用编程语言研制成功基于有限元的可靠性分析软件RAPS(Reliability Analysis Program of Structure based on FEM),运用该软件对立体车库钢结构的可靠性进行具体的分析;对判定结构系统失效与否的失效准则进行讨论和分析,并针对立体车库钢结构,得出合理的失效准则和系统可靠度的计算方法;通过实例说明约界参数CAP、失效路径长度和系统复杂程度对失效准则和系统可靠度结果的影响。     

Development of an Earthen Dam Break Database

Earthen embankment dams comprise 85% of all major operational dams in the United States. Assessment of peak flow rates for these earthen dams and the impacts on dam failure are of high interest to engineers and planners. Regression analysis is a frequently used risk assessment approach for earthen dams. In this paper, we present a decision support tool for assessing the applicability of nine regression equations commonly used by practitioners. Using data from 108 case studies, six parameters were observed to be significant factors predicting for peak flow as a metric for risk analysis. We present our work on an expanded earthen dam break database that relates the regression equations and underlying data. A web application, regression selection tool, is also presented to assess the appropriateness of a given model for a given test point. This graphical display allows users to visualize how their data point compares with the data used for the regression equation. These contributions improve estimates and better inform decision makers regarding operational and safety decisions.     

Vernacular knowledge and environmental law: cause and cure for regulatory failure

The Australian environment and agriculture is suffering from land degradation and declining biodiversity. Laws protecting native vegetation are aimed at addressing these problems but have been resisted by farmers, compromising the social agreement necessary for regulatory success. A case study drawing on farmer interviews in central northern New South Wales reveals that the laws are considered to be under-achieving environmental outcomes since they are ill-suited to local conditions. The low feasibility of the rules is also undermining rule and state legitimacy. Regulatory resistance is due to the lack of recognition of place-specifics by government and laws that impose universal requirements. There is an epistemic distance between the bureaucratic knowledge held by government and the vernacular knowledge (place-based knowledge) of heterogeneous environments held by farmers. Incorporating vernacular knowledge so that laws are more geographically sympathetic may close vernacular disjunctures and cure regulatory failure.     

基于进化博弈的生态建筑项目开发商群体行为研究

以进化博弈理论为基础,构建了开发商群体在生态建筑项目开发决策中的动态博弈模型,打破了经典博弈理论中参与人完全理性的不合理假定.模型充分讨论了政府激励措施对开发商行为的影响,其结果较好地解释了因信息不对称造成的我国生态建筑项目“市场失灵”现象,为合理引导开发商进行生态建筑项目建设提供了决策依据.     

汽车排气管焊缝断裂的失效分析

某汽车用排气管使用不久焊缝处断裂。对失效排气管焊缝进行化学成分、金相组织和断口的微观分析。发现该排气管焊缝柱状组织粗大,断口微观形貌为沿晶断裂,柱状晶贯穿整个断裂面,断口有较明显的脆性特征。分析认为该排气管属于早期失效,是由于薄壁的排气管焊接时温度过高,导致焊缝柱状组织粗大,加之薄壁管冷却又快,致使焊缝产生较大的内应力。建议改进焊接工艺,控制较低的层间温度,使焊缝组织细化,解决焊缝断裂问题。     

雾霾天气下电网设备故障高精度远程视频监控系统设计研究

作为电力系统未来发展的方向,对电网设备故障监控系统进行设计具有重要意义.有利于实现电网进行安全可靠运行.提出基于ZigBee网络的电网设备故障高精度远程视频监控系统设计.利用ZigBee网络构建无线的传感网,节点是采用的CC2530,节点间采用簇状的结构与监控功能部分、视频监控信号传输以及监控的客户端相结合构成远程视频的监控系统,采用小波变换对设备故障的特征进行分析,克服了因雾霾天气产生的电网设备故障,对电网设备故障进行及时的抢修,完成对电网设备故障高精度远程视频监控系统的设计.实验结果表明,利用该系统能有效地提高电网运行的稳定性与安全性.