A CFD based explosion risk analysis methodology using time varying release rates in dispersion simulations

A full probabilistic Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA) is commonly used to establish overpressure exceedance curves for offshore facilities. This involves modelling a large number of gas dispersion and explosion scenarios. Capturing the time dependant build up and decay of a flammable gas cloud size along with its shape and location are important parameters that can govern the results of an ERA. Dispersion simulations using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) are generally carried out in detailed ERA studies to obtain these pieces of information. However, these dispersion simulations are typically modelled with constant release rates leading to steady state results. The basic assumption used here is that the flammable gas cloud build up rate from these constant release rate dispersion simulations would mimic the actual transient cloud build up rate from a time varying release rate. This assumption does not correctly capture the physical phenomena of transient gas releases and their subsequent dispersion and may lead to very conservative results. This in turn results in potential over design of facilities with implications on time, materials and cost of a project.In the current work, an ERA methodology is proposed that uses time varying release rates as an input in the CFD dispersion simulations to obtain the fully transient flammable gas cloud build-up and decay, while ensuring the total time required to perform the ERA study is also reduced. It was found that the proposed ERA methodology leads to improved accuracy in dispersion results, steeper overpressure exceedance curves and a significant reduction in the Design Accidental Load (DAL) values whilst still maintaining some conservatism and also reducing the total time required to perform an ERA study.     

Thermal risk in batch reactors: Theoretical framework for runaway and accident

Thermal safety and risk of accidents are still challenging topics in the case of batch reactors carrying exothermic reactions. In the present paper, the authors develop an integrated framework focusing on defining the governing parameters for the thermal runaway and evaluating the subsequent risk of accident. A relevant set of criteria are identified in order to find the prior conditions for a thermal runaway: failure of the cooling system, critical temperature threshold, successive derivatives of the temperature (first and second namely) vs. time and no detection in due time (reaction time) of the runaway initiation. For illustrative purposes, the synthesis of peracetic acid (PAA) with hydrogen peroxide (HP) and acetic acid (AA) is considered as case study. The critical and threshold values for the runaway accident are identified for selected sets of input data. Under the conditional probability of prior cooling system failure, Monte Carlo simulations are performed in order to estimate the risk of thermal runaway accident in batch reactors. It becomes then possible to predict the ratio of reactors, within an industrial plant, potentially subject to thermal runaway accident.     

金沙江干热河谷区地质灾害遥感研究

遥感技术能快速全面、高性价比地获取地表信息,可以从宏观上对区域性地质灾害进行调查,形成对区域性地质灾害分布、规模的定量认识,因此遥感技术已经在国外的地质灾害调查工作中得到了较广泛应用。金沙江德钦段河谷属于典型的干热河谷,遥感技术在该地区的环境地质调查的应用研究,对于西部大开发的工程建设具有很强的实用性。利用3种星载光学遥感影像对这一地区的地质灾害进行了目视解译研究。首先简要介绍了金沙江干热河谷区自然地理、地质和气候环境的特点及其对地质灾害解译产生的影响,其次就本地区的环境地质遥感数据的选择与处理进行了说明,然后配合图片详细分析了研究区主要地质灾害(滑坡、崩塌堆积、泥石流沟和倾倒变形)的解译特征。最后实地考察验证了解译的可行性,并分析总结了存在的不足,提出了利用近红外高光谱提高地质灾害解译研究的设想。     

Assessing the susceptibility of societies to droughts: a political science perspective

In this article we develop a concept for the assessment of state’s susceptibility to drought based on a political science perspective. Different sources of capacities and sensitivities need to be taken into account to assess the overall susceptibility of states as political systems. We argue that the overall susceptibility of a society depends on an interplay of state capacity and readiness as main elements of political susceptibility, wealth and economic sensitivity as elements of economic susceptibility and the degree of social integration. To transform the conceptual model into a susceptibility assessment we developed an inference model in order to generate quantitative indices. For this purpose we apply fuzzy set theory using data from our case study regions, namely Andhra Pradesh (India), the Volga region (Russia) and (Southern) Portugal. The resulting computed trends for Portugal suggest that the society will be able to deal even with severe natural conditions due to existing political, economic, and social conditions. The assessment results for the Indian and Russian case study regions, in contrast, give reason for precaution since the occurrence of drought-induced crisis events seems much more likely in the light of more crucial, overall conditions, namely lower degrees of state capacity and readiness as well as, in the case of India, a high economic susceptibility. However, further improvements are possible given the improved availability of data and the integration of more qualitative information. Additionally, the expansion to further case study regions could help validate the overall concept.     

树脂基复合材料模拟海洋环境长期老化及失效行为

目的 实现高性能树脂基复合材料的环境适应性评价和使用寿命预测。方法 选取玻璃纤维增强不饱和聚酯(GF/197S)与玻璃纤维增强乙烯基脂(GF/905-2)2种树脂基轻质复合材料,开展模拟海洋环境实验室盐雾、湿热和盐水浸泡环境9 600 h的加速老化试验。基于4种力学性能(拉伸强度、弯曲强度、压缩强度及层间剪切强度)开展材料老化行为规律研究,利用傅里叶变换衰减全反射红外光谱(ATR-FTIR)对树脂基体在3种加速老化环境中的分子链段与官能团变化情况进行分析,得到基体树脂的老化机理。利用外观、超声扫描成像、SEM分析树脂纤维界面的变化情况,明确树脂/纤维界面的失效模式。利用差示扫描量热分析(DSC)与热重分析(TG)分析3种加速老化方式对玻璃纤维增强树脂复合材料(GFRPC)的玻璃化转变温度(tg)与热质量损失的影响。结果 3种老化方式对树脂基体的老化影响顺序依次为70 ℃/95%RH湿热、35 ℃盐雾、常温盐水浸泡。结论 得到了先进轻质树脂基复合材料的模拟海洋环境老化行为、失效模式以及树脂基体的老化机理,为实现高性能树脂基复合材料的环境适应性评价和使用寿命预测奠定了基础。     

环氧富锌-石墨烯涂层在中性盐雾和高低温循环浸泡中的失效研究

目的 研究20#钢表面环氧富锌-石墨烯涂层在中性盐雾和高低温循环浸泡(3.5％NaCl溶液,45℃12 h+RT 12 h)试验中的失效过程与行为.方法 采用电化学交流阻抗(EIS)测试、开路电位(OCP)监测、扫描电镜观察与分析(SEM/EDS)以及红外光谱(FTIR)等方法研究涂层在两种试验环境中的失效特征和对20#钢的保护作用,并探讨涂层失效的低频阻抗评价标准.结果 涂层试样分别在中性盐雾79 d和高低温循环浸泡160 d后,表面开始出现锈点,失去对基体的保护作用,此时低频阻抗(|Z|0.01 Hz)值降至7×104?·cm2左右.除了屏蔽作用以外,环氧富锌-石墨烯涂层还可为钢基体提供一定的阴极保护作用,其中高低温浸泡环境中的阴极保护作用时间略长.在两种加速试验环境中,涂层后期的失光率均处于"明显失光",色差值达到或接近"较大变色".红外光谱显示,涂层中的特征官能团未发生明显的变化.结论 通常利用低频阻抗(|Z|0.01 Hz)低于1×106?·cm2来衡量有机涂层(不含导电颗粒)失效的判据,不适用于评价碳钢表面的环氧富锌-石墨烯涂层体系,对于该体系的失效评价可能需要再降低近2个数量级,约为7×104?·cm2左右.     

某超临界汽轮机主汽阀杆断裂原因分析

目的 某热电厂超临界机组汽轮机发生主蒸汽阀阀杆(标称材质为22Cr12NiMoWV(C422)钢)断裂事故,对发电安全造成不良影响.为此,分析该阀杆断裂失效的原因,提出改进措施,以避免类似事故的发生.方法 从外观检查、成分测定、金相检验以及断口观察等方面入手,结合硬度和冲击性能测试,探讨阀杆断裂的主要原因.结果 该断裂...     

压缩机组连接螺栓异常断裂失效分析与治理

目的 解决压缩机组一级进气缓冲罐连接螺栓断裂及管嘴失效问题.方法 针对压缩机机械结构和生产工况,通过气流脉动、机械振动测试分析,并结合仿真分析,提出气流脉动抑制措施和机械振动控制措施.分析得出一级进气缓冲罐连接螺栓断裂及管嘴失效的主要原因.结果 压缩机组中体支撑结构刚度不够,缸内交变气流力作用引起进气缓冲罐和气缸水平方...