安全系统的故障分析

以可靠性研究为基础,分析独立和冗余配置的安全系统的故障状态,给出独立配置和冗余配置时安全系统的显性故障率、隐性故障率以及系统可用度的定量模型。以该模型对以紧急停车系统(ESD)和生产监控系统(DCS)构成的组合安全系统进行了比较和分析。笔者认为:ESD单独设置时,应注意降低隐性故障率、提高其修复率;ESD与DCS冗余配置时,无论是并联冗余还是串联冗余,安全保护功能都是增加的,但同时显性故障率有所增加,隐形故障率大大减少。因此,用ESD补充DCS的安全保护功能而不是简单的重复其功能,对提高系统的整体安全水平将是十分明显的。     

Calibrate failure-based risk assessments to take into account the type of chemical processed in equipment

Currently, failure-based risk assessments in the process industry do not empirically take into account the type of chemicals processed in equipment, mainly because chemical-specific failure rate data barely exist. This paper suggests a methodology to calibrate failure-based risk assessment predicated on the chemical being processed in equipment. The methodology uses a data mining tool known as the association rule. Specifically, the lift association rule is utilized (the Lift Methodology). By extracting equipment failure information from incident databases based on the chemical involved in the process, the Lift Methodology leads to more accurate equipment-related risk assessment.     

BIVARIATE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF FLOODS USING COPULAS1

Abstract: Bivariate flood frequency analysis offers improved understanding of the complex flood process and useful information in preparing flood mitigation measures. However, difficulties arise from limited bivariate distribution functions available to jointly model the correlated flood peak and volume that have different univariate marginal distributions. Copulas are functions that link univariate distribution functions to form bivariate distribution functions, which can overcome such difficulties. The objective of this study was to analyze bivariate frequency of flood peak and volume using copulas. Separate univariate distributions of flood peak and volume are first fitted from observed data. Copulas are then employed to model the dependence between flood peak and volume and join the predetermined univariate marginal distributions to construct the bivariate distribution. The bivariate probabilities and associated return periods are calculated in terms of univariate marginal distributions and copulas. The advantage of using copulas is that they can separate the effect of dependence from the effects of the marginal distributions. In addition, explicit relationships between joint and univariate return periods are made possible when copulas are employed to construct bivariate distribution of floods. The annual floods of Tongtou flow gauge station in the Jhuoshuei River, Taiwan, are used to illustrate bivariate flood frequency analysis.     

MULTIFRACTAL SCALING OF DAILY RUNOFF TIME SERIES IN AGRICULTURAL WATERSHEDS1

Abstract: Multifractal scaling behavior of long-term records of daily runoff time series in 32 subwatersheds covering a wide range of sizes was examined. These subwatersheds were associated with four agricultural watersheds with different climates and topography. The empirical moment scaling curves obtained using the trace moment method showed that the runoff time series exhibited a multifractal behavior, which was valid over a time scale range from one day to about three years. The multi-fractal scaling of the runoff time series was well described by the Universal Multifractal Model. The spectral analysis (β < 1) and the order of fractional integration (H ⋍; 0) indicated that the runoff time series were conservative. The multifractal parameters, α (multifractal index) and C₁ (co-dimension), were reasonably close to each other for subwatersheds within each of the watersheds and were generally similar among the four watersheds. The α values of the four watersheds were 1.10 ± 0.13, 1.61 ± 0.06,1.61 ± 0.24, and 1.63 ± 0.19. The C₁ values of four watersheds were 0.19 ± 0.01, 0.17 ± 0.01, 0.17 ± 0.04, and 0.11 ± 0.02. The multifractal analyses provided useful insight into the runoff time series, especially the occurrence and distribution of extreme events.     

泄洪洞引渠内侧边坡稳定性分析

本文采用定性分析和定量计算相结合的方法对锦屏一级水电站右岸泄洪洞引渠内侧边坡稳定性进行分析,定性分析方法主要通过赤平投影作图初步分析引渠内侧边坡可能出现的组合滑面破坏模式,定性判断边坡局部、浅表层的稳定性,定量分析方法是在定性分析的基础上,通过刚性极限平衡法进一步分析引渠内侧边坡的整体变形破坏模式,并运用Slide软件计算地震状态下边坡的稳定系数,进而确定引渠内侧边坡的稳定性,结果表明定性和定量方法相结合是边坡稳定性分析的有效方法。     

“十五”期间牡丹江河段水质评价方法的探索与研究

概率法评价河流水质是一种简单易行可操作性强的方法,本文尝试利用概率法的原理和方法对牡丹江3个监测断面的“十五”期间监测数据进行分析,评价结果更符合实际水质情况,根据评价结果,可以为阶段性的环境管理提供可靠的技术支持,可以为环境保护工作提供防治依据,确保了牡丹江流域水环境的可持续发展。     

基于Hashin准则的单层板渐进失效分析

以Hashin准则作为复合材料单层板的失效判据,基于材料的参数退化准则,并考虑单层板的累计损伤,利用渐进失效分析方法对受单向拉伸的[0]16单层板进行损伤数值分析。数值分析结果与实验结果相当吻合,表明该方法预测单层板的损伤失效比较准确。在此基础上,运用该方法对含圆孔单层板的单向拉伸破坏进行了失效扩展仿真分析,计算了不同单层板的初始和最终失效载荷,揭示最终失效载荷与铺层角度的关系,这对进一步认识复合材料的失效机理有着重要的意义。     

基于aFMEA的装甲装备环境适应性研究

分析了装甲装备所面临的自然环境和战场环境,通过对高温、低温、风沙盐雾、高原、冲击振动等环境因素对装甲装备的影响和危害分析,提出了相应的措施。结合装甲装备材料与结构特点,开展装甲装备环境特性分析,给出了装甲装备部件局部环境量值的确定方法;基于aFMEA,提出了一种新的环境适应性故障模式分析方法,得出装甲装备的环境适应性特点。     

某型步进电机驱动器在高原和沙漠环境下的失效分析

针对某型步进电机驱动器在高原、沙漠环境下模拟运行试验中出现的故障现象,通过故障和失效分析,找出了导致步进电机驱动器失效的主要原因：严酷的工作环境条件和元器件的选择不当。根据失效分析结果提出了相应的改进措施。     

陕西潼关南寨子遗址人口的平均预期寿命与死亡模式

作为社会存在和发展的基础和主体,人口因素在人类文明发展中起着重要作用.我们通过编制生命表,对陕西潼关南寨子遗址4个墓葬出土的人骨进行古人口学分析,计算出关中平原东部地区仰韶文化中期人口的平均预期寿命为27.8岁,高出我国西北、东北地区和太湖流域新石器时期的人口平均预期寿命约8岁.而与山东沿海地区大汶口文化时期的王因遗址...