温度对编织复合材料层合厚板冲击性能的影响研究

目的 研究室温和低温下编织复合材料层合厚板的冲击性能。方法 通过开展低速冲击试验和冲击后的压缩试验,对冲击响应曲线、冲击损伤容貌、压缩失效模式和剩余压缩强度进行分析,探讨冲击时的环境温度对编织复合材料层合厚板冲击性能的影响。结果 冲击后的编织复合材料层合厚板存在凹坑、分层、基体裂纹和纤维断裂等多种失效模式,压缩失效模式主要表现为横贯冲击损伤区域截断式破坏失效。结论 低温环境增强基体强度,降低了复合材料的冲击损伤程度,从而提高编织复合材料结构的剩余压缩强度。     

基于BWM群决策赋权与FMEA的风险评估方法*

为实现BWM群决策评估结果的有效聚合，构建1种基于输入数据的决策者赋权法。该赋权法基于输入数据的一致性水平，衡量决策者对评估对象的认知程度并确定权重，使BWM能够应用于群决策过程，从而构建基于BWM群决策赋权和FMEA的风险评估法。通过邮轮玻璃幕墙风险评估的实例验证该方法，并通过序数一致性分析方法的有效性。研究结果表明:在客观数据缺乏而依赖专家主观经验评估的情况下，该方法能够降低评估能力较低个体对团队评估结果的影响。     

某超临界汽轮机主汽阀杆断裂原因分析

目的 某热电厂超临界机组汽轮机发生主蒸汽阀阀杆(标称材质为22Cr12NiMoWV(C422)钢)断裂事故,对发电安全造成不良影响.为此,分析该阀杆断裂失效的原因,提出改进措施,以避免类似事故的发生.方法 从外观检查、成分测定、金相检验以及断口观察等方面入手,结合硬度和冲击性能测试,探讨阀杆断裂的主要原因.结果 该断裂...     

Quantifying the probability of detection of wild ungulates with the Judas technique

The Judas technique is often used in control or eradication of particular vertebrate pests. The technique exploits the tendency of individuals to form social groups. A radio collar is affixed to an individual and its subsequent monitoring facilitates the detection of other conspecifics. Efficacy of this technique would be improved if managers could estimate the probability that a Judas individual would detect conspecifics. To calculate this probability, we estimated association rates of Judas individuals with other Judas individuals, given the length of time the Judas has been deployed. We developed a simple model of space-use for individual Judas animals and constrained detection probabilities to those specific areas. We then combined estimates for individual Judas animals to infer the probability that a wild individual could be detected in an area of interest via Judas surveillance. We illustrated the method by using data from a feral goat eradication program on Isla Santiago, Galápagos, and a feral pig eradication program on Santa Cruz Island, California. Association probabilities declined as the proximity between individual areas of use of a Judas pair decreased. Unconditional probabilities of detection within individual areas of use averaged 0.09 per month for feral pigs and 0.11 per month for feral goats. Probabilities that eradication had been achieved, given no detections of wild conspecifics, and an uninformative prior probability of eradication were 0.79 (90% CI 0.22–0.99) for feral goats and 0.87 (90% CI 0.44–1.0) for feral pigs. We envisage several additions to the analyses used that could improve estimates of Judas detection probability. Analyses such as these can help managers increase the efficacy of eradication efforts, leading to more effective effects to restore native biodiversity.     

异常环境下要害系统确信安全评估方法

目的 获得异常环境下的要害系统确信安全评估(PLOAS)建立评估方法和技术框架,为要害系统安全性设计和安全防护决策提供科学支撑.方法 基于要害系统在异常环境条件下结构响应行为机制,以表征安全性的响应特征参数为对象,融合试验、数值仿真等技术手段以及代理模型构建等不确定性分析方法,通过定量计算安全特征参数未达到失效阈值的概...