Modeling the Effects of Potential Salinity Shifts on the Recovery of Striped Bass in the Savannah River Estuary,Georgia–South Carolina,United States

Increased salinity in spawning and nursery grounds in the Savannah River estuary was cited as the primary cause of a 97% decrease in adult striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and a concomitant 96% decrease in striped bass egg production. Restoration efforts focused on environmental remediation and stock enhancement have resulted in restored salinity patterns and increased egg and adult abundances. However, future water needs or harbor development may preclude further recovery by reducing freshwater inflow or increasing salinity intrusion. To assess the effect of potential changes in the salinity regime, we developed models relating discharge, tidal phase, and salinity to striped bass egg and early larval survival and re-cast these in a quantitative Bayesian belief network. The model indicated that a small upstream shift (≤1.67 km) in the salinity regime would have the least impact on striped bass early life history survival, whereas shifts >1.67 km would have progressively larger impacts, with a 8.33-km shift potentially reducing our estimated survival probability by >28%. Such an impact could have cumulative and long-term detrimental effects on the recovery of the Savannah River striped bass population. The available salinity data were collected during average and low flows, so our model represents some typical and some extreme conditions during a striped bass spawning season. Our model is a relatively simplistic, “first-order” attempt at evaluating potential effects of changes in the Savannah River estuarine salinity regime and points to areas of concern and potential future research.     

深圳市纯电动泥头车减污降碳协同效益评价研究

新能源汽车替代传统燃油车是减缓能源与环境压力并如期实现“双碳”目标的重要途径,但在重型车辆、工程车等领域推广较为缓慢.深圳市自2019年开始推广使用纯电动泥头车,并计划到2025年新能源环卫、泥头车数量达到8000辆.为深入探究纯电动泥头车替代柴油泥头车所产生的减污降碳协同效益,本研究基于一手调研数据,采用生命周期评价方法并结合GREET模型,对比分析了两类泥头车在燃料周期、车辆周期和配套设施周期3个周期内的能耗、主要空气污染物及碳排放情况.结果表明,纯电动泥头车全生命周期内能耗较柴油泥头车可减少36.2%,主要污染物如NO_x、SO₂、VOC和PM_2.5降幅分别达81.3%、37.8%、29.0%和25.9%;温室气体(GHGs)排放强度减少14.4%,基准情境下2030年和2050年推广纯电动泥头车GHGs累计减排量分别为71.4万t和258.5万t.尽管节能减排效果显著,但其初始购置和售后维保成本过高是制约其推广的最主要因素,通过降低车辆及电池生产制造成本、提高充换电设施数量及售后维保能力等有望加快泥头车纯电动化.     

基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究

为避免因腐蚀导致油气管道失效,针对因管道特性和腐蚀尺寸的不确定性使得管道剩余强度成为概率模型的特点,建立了腐蚀管道强度损失随机模型;借助可靠性理论,通过分析管道腐蚀进程的时变性特点,将管道系统由损伤积累和抗力衰减导致的剩余强度随机化;提出基于穿越率的腐蚀油气管道失效评定及安全寿命预测方法。研究结果表明:腐蚀速率和运行压力对管道失效概率及安全寿命影响显著,管道尺寸影响适中,而相关系数和拉伸强度影响较小;若腐蚀速率Va=0.2 mm/a,VL=10 mm/a或局部腐蚀缺陷半径达到管道壁厚的0.5倍时,建议作为重点风险段监测并检修。所建方法是对腐蚀油气管道运营监控和风险评估的有益补充。     

城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究

为提高我国城市燃气风险管理水平,帮助风险管理者科学地分配维护资源,探讨提出了我国城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准;采用AIR指标法确定了个人风险可接受标准范围为(2.397 3×10-7,4.794 7×10-7);运用F-N曲线法结合ALARP原则,确定了社会风险可接受标准,最大可接受风险的截距为4.794 7×10-7,可忽略风险的截距为4.794 7×10-8;利用生活质量指数推导模型,计算了达到城市燃气事故可忽略风险水平的最优安全投入成本;基于风险动态原则,分析提出了风险可接受标准的更新办法。研究结果表明:我国城市燃气行业可接受风险水平低于煤矿、大坝、化工等危险行业的可接受风险水平;虽然我国城市燃气事故死亡率逐年降低,但要达到可忽略的风险水平,每年还需大量安全资金投入。     

Effects of physical exercise on musculoskeletal disorders,stress and quality of life in workers

Background. The effect of physical exercise in the workplace (PEW) on health promotion of workers is contradictory. Objective. To evaluate the effects of the PEW in musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs), perception of stress and quality of life in workers. Methods. The participants were divided into two groups: control group (n?=?46) including non-participant workers of the PEW program, and PEW group (n?=?50) including workers who regularly participate in the exercise program. All workers answered the Nordic general questionnaire, the perceived stress scale and the quality-of-life questionnaire. Results. The PEW group reported a lower prevalence of MSDs for the trunk in the last 7 days and 12 months (p?=?0.021 and p?=?0.001, respectively), and for the upper limbs in the last 12 months (p?=?0.001) compared with the control group. The results for the perception of stress and quality of life showed no significant differences between the groups. Conclusion. PEW is a potential method to reduce MSDs in workers, but it was not efficient in reducing stress levels or improving the quality of life of the workers.     

Proposing of new building scheme and composite towards global warming mitigation for Malaysia

The building sector has been regarded as a potential sector where there is large capacity to reduce the climate change effect. This study has proposed solutions to mitigate environmental impacts and achieve low CO₂ emission from residential sector. Therefore, full life cycle assessment (LCA) has been run to assess the CO₂ emission and its effect on the atmosphere and climate change. Based on the result, timber scheme is the best choice due to releasing less CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. However, house builders in Malaysia have almost completely neglected timber as a building material, with timber use as building components reduced to 5%. In this study, LCA Software was used to assess CO₂ emissions from different wall construction. The alternative building scheme has been made by reinforce steel stud, wooden beam and timber wall (S8) to improve the scheme deficiency while releasing less CO₂ emissions compared to other schemes. Therefore, S8 has a decreased CO₂ effect by 85% less than precast concrete frame and 90% less than brick over their lifetime. (S8) increased the load bearing compared to conventional timber beam. Thus, new scheme S8 could be replaced by current scheme and promote more adjustable scheme for Malaysian housing.     

畜牧业“碳排放”到“碳足迹”核算方法的研究进展

全球变暖趋势日益加剧,不仅影响农业可持续发展,而且威胁到人类生存。畜牧业碳排放因其在农业碳排放中乃至全球碳排放中占比较大而日益备受关注。准确核算畜牧业碳排放是制定切实可行的碳减排政策的前提,也为我国在气候变化下承担共同但有差别的减排责任提供话语权。本文基于研究范式的演进,对畜牧业碳排放到碳足迹核算方法的研究发展进行了系统梳理,研究表明,在学者的不断研究与质疑下,畜牧业碳排放到碳足迹的核算方法经历了从OECD核算法、IPCC系数法到生命周期法与投入-产出法的演变与完善,学术界认为区域异质性、养殖规模与管理方式均影响碳足迹;散养比规模化养殖产生更多的碳排放,舍饲比户外放牧排放更多的碳。畜牧业碳足迹核算能够更加全面地反映畜牧业全生命周期的碳排放情况,但由于研究假设、研究方法及研究样本等差异导致不同区域、不同畜产品的碳排放核算结果存在不确定性。运用生命周期法和投入-产出法对欧盟成员国畜牧业碳排放的核算结果基本一致,但运用IPCC系数法和全生命周期法对中国畜牧业碳排放核算中,牛、猪和羊的碳排放量排序结果不尽一致。鉴于核算结果的差异性,本研究对不同核算方法的起源、最早采用时间、特点、局限性等方面进行了归纳总结,并建议后续研究探讨基于生命周期评价的畜牧业碳足迹研究边界的延伸性,标准化畜牧业碳排放或碳足迹核算,避免学者重复核算畜牧业碳排放,以便深入展开畜牧业碳排放其他方面的研究。     

Think globally,act locally: neighbourhood pollution and the future of the earth

Each year governments and industry around the globe spend billions of dollars in search of treatments and cures for diseases that shorten lives, which often means gadgets, implants, radiation and pills. These “cures”, do not get to the root of the problem. Perhaps it is time for us to adjust our thinking to be more proactive instead of reactive in public health. Perhaps we need to consider confronting environmental pollution of air, soil and water at a local level. As the Physicians for Social Responsibility point out, we should be “preventing what we cannot cure”. One such preventive measure is ensuring that our communities, including our poor inner-city neighbourhoods, enjoy a clean environment. We challenge local and national policy-makers to respond to the global call and to take action to address environmental toxins; to take local action to ameliorate the pollution of the air, water and soil in so many of our nation’s neighbourhoods. A person’s neighbourhood, and the proximity of dangerous environmental contaminants within it, is a powerful predictor of how long s/he will live. While situations like the poisoning of the water in Flint, Michigan have gotten some attention, they are generally treated as the exception rather than a reflection of real environmental hazards that exist in the west. Moreover we wonder why more endemic issues of neighbourhood environmental contamination that shorten human lives are not a priority for local action or that it is not linked to disproportionate production of greenhouse gases that cause climate change/warming/chaos.     

城市生活垃圾处理方式生命周期评价的比较研究

生命周期评价理论与方法作为一种量化环境影响的工具,在诸多领域中得到了广泛的应用。在垃圾处理领域,生命周期评价最早在20世纪90年代得到应用。生命周期评价与城市生活垃圾处理的有效结合,将促进城市生活垃圾的减量化、资源化、无害化目标的实现。总结了生命周期评价理论与方法在城市生活垃圾处理中的应用现状。对国内不同城市生活垃圾处理方式环境影响因子进行比较分析,诸如全球变暖潜力、酸化潜力和富营养化潜力等因子。针对其目标范围定义、数据收集、评价方法的选择、结果解释及工艺改进等方面指出了目前研究的局限性和不足。并对未来城市生活垃圾处理生命周期评价的发展方向进行展望。     

循环流化床锅炉燃煤技术热电厂生命周期评价

运用生命周期评价方法,应用Gabi5.0软件对采用循环流化床锅炉燃煤技术的热电企业进行资源耗竭和环境影响分析,计算各生产单元生命周期清单的全球变暖潜值、酸化效应潜值、富营养化潜值、非生物资源耗竭潜值、人体毒性潜值以及光化学烟雾和臭氧生成潜值等主要环境影响类型,对燃煤发电过程进行生命周期评价。结果表明,全球变暖和非生物资源耗竭为发电运行过程中主要的环境影响因素,分别占53%和15.05%;锅炉燃烧阶段的环境影响最重,占整个生命周期影响值的77.12%,并且除生物耗竭潜值外的其他5项指标均为发电运行阶段各个单元中最高。采用SNCR脱硝技术减少燃烧过程中NOx的排放量,并对该技术方案进行生命周期评价,比较方案实施前后的环境影响。