基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷,提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态;依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量;根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系,针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题,采用模糊证据推理技术,通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例,验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确,是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

畜禽环境中抗生素的去除及其风险评估

抗生素作为饲料添加剂广泛应用于畜禽养殖业,造成养殖环境抗生素大量蓄积,尤其是在畜禽粪便中,长期的积累不仅污染养殖场内土壤环境,残留的抗生素还会随畜禽粪便进入周边水体及农田环境,威胁农作物及人体健康。目前,国内相关研究主要集中在抗生素的降解工艺及降解规律方面,而对其去除效率的影响因素及风险评价研究相对较少。笔者综述了国内外抗生素的降解转化及去除方式等的研究进展,并概述了抗生素在畜禽环境中的生态风险评估的研究现状,为抗生素的高效去除、风险预估及畜禽粪便资源化安全利用提供理论基础和技术支撑。     

天津市地表水体与沉积物中7种高关注酚类化合物的污染特征与生态风险分析

为探究地表水体与沉积物中酚类化合物的污染分布特征和生态风险,选择天津市3个水源地与6条主要河流,采集了26个地表水样与6个沉积物样品,利用固相萃取与超声萃取、高效液相色谱-串联质谱法(HPLC-MS/MS)测定了水样及沉积物中1-萘酚(1-naphthol)、壬基酚(nonylphenol, NP)、双酚A(bisphenol A, BPA)、2-苯基苯酚(biphenyl-2-ol)、3,4-二氯酚(3,4-dichlorophenol)、四溴双酚A(tetrabromobisphenol A, TBBPA)和对叔丁基苯酚(p-tert-butylphenol, PTBP)等7种高关注酚类化合物的浓度水平,并应用物种敏感性分布(species sensitivity distribution, SSD)法和熵值法(ecological risk quotient, RQ)评估7种酚类化合物水环境和沉积物的生态风险。结果表明,地表水样中7种酚类化合物均全部检出;其中壬基酚的检出浓度最高,其次为四溴双酚A、对叔丁基苯酚、1-萘酚、2-苯基苯酚、3,4-二氯酚和双酚A。沉积物中酚类化合物的污染分布规律与水样相似,除双酚A外的目标物全部检出。其中,壬基酚浓度比其他物质浓度高2个数量级。风险评估结果显示,壬基酚对水环境与沉积物存在不可接受的风险;而四溴双酚A、对叔丁基苯酚、1-萘酚、2-苯基苯酚、3,4-二氯酚和双酚A则对环境具有较低风险或者存在一定的风险。     

Utilization of MSWI fly ash as partial cement or sand substitute with focus on cementing efficiency and health risk assessment

• Washed MSWI fly ash was used as partial cement or sand substitute. • Sand replacing is beneficial for strength, while cement replacement reduces strength. • Cementing efficiency factor and mortar pore structure explain the strength results. • Health risk assessment was conducted for MSWI fly ash blended cement mortar. • CR and HI contributed by different exposures and heavy metals were analyzed. The strength of cement substituted mortar decreases with the increase in fly ash amount, whereas the strength increases when the fly ash is blended as sand substitute. A mortar with highest strength (compressive strength= 30.2 Mpa; flexural strength= 7.0 Mpa) was obtained when the sand replacement ratio was 0.75%. The k value (cementing efficiency) of fly ash varied between 0.36 and 0.15 for the fly ash fraction in binder between 5% and 25%. The k values of fly ash used for sand replacement were all significantly above that used for cement substitution. The macropores assigned to the gaps between particles decreased when the fly ash was used as sand replacement, providing an explanation for the strength enhancement. The waste-extraction procedure (toxicity-sulphuric acid and nitric acid method (HJ/T 299-2007)) was used to evaluate metal leaching, indicating the reuse possibility of fly ash blended mortar. For the mortar with the mass ratio of fly ash to binder of 0.5%, the carcinogenic risks (CR) and non-carcinogenic hazard quotient (HQ) in sensitive scenario for blended mortar utilization were 9.66 × 10^-7 and 0.06, respectively; these results were both lower than the threshold values, showing an acceptable health risk. The CR (9.89 × 10^-5) and HQ (3.89) of the non-sensitive scenario for fly ash treatment exceeded the acceptable threshold values, indicating health risks to onsite workers. The main contributor to the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk is Cr and Cd, respectively. The CR and HQ from inhalation was the main route of heavy metal exposure.     

What happened to the Second World? Earthquakes and postsocialism in Kazakhstan

There is an assumption that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Second World ceased to exist. Yet the demise of the Communist bloc as a geopolitical reality did not mean that it stopped exerting a defining influence over how people think and behave. This article examines how the postsocialist state in Kazakhstan deals with potential crises such as earthquakes and the extent to which the Soviet legacy still shapes intellectual debates, state structures, and civil society organisations in in that country. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this paper re-examines the Second World in its historical context and re-establishes it as a conceptual framework for considering disaster risk reduction in the former Soviet bloc. It argues that it is essential to pay attention to this legacy in Kazakhstan both in policy and practice if earthquake risk reduction is to be made more effective.     

西南山地区域森林火险综合预报模型研究——以重庆市为例

森林火灾严重破坏森林生态系统的结构和功能,针对其风险预报开展研究具有重要的理论意义和应用价值。通过融合气象、地表覆盖和人类活动等要素的方式构建森林火险综合预报模型,是西南山地区域森林火险综合预报业务化应用的重要发展方向。基于《森林火险气象等级》国家标准(GB/T 36743-2018),本文研究首先构建了重庆市森林火险气象风险预报模型。然后通过融合可燃物因素和人为因素的方式,进一步构建重庆市森林火险综合预报模型。最后利用历史火点数据针对上述两类模型的精度进行对比和分析。研究结果表明:重庆市森林火灾发生次数较多,且呈现出季节性规律;重庆市森林火灾的发生不仅受到气象条件的影响,而且受到地表覆盖和人类活动等多种要素条件的共同影响;与森林火险气象风险预报结果相比,森林火险综合预报结果在空间分布上具有更高的精细程度;森林火险综合预报模型能有效提高森林火险等级预报精度。     

基于灾害风险评估的山地城市固定避难场所布局优化研究——以东川区为例

研究以各区域灾害风险评估系数作为权重系数,对山地小城市各区域避难场所进行优化布局。首先,通过风险值=危险性*脆弱性/抗灾救灾能力机理表达式构建灾害风险评估指标体系,并以模糊综合评价法得出灾害风险评估数值,在此基础上通过多目标选址优化模型来构建山地城市避难场所的优化模型,其中灾害风险评估系数作为影响布局的权重因素纳入其中。最后,以东川区为研究对象,对其固定避难场所进行优化布局研究,结果表明:东川区城区固定避灾场所数量可在接近最优解的情况下达到效果最优。     

Comparison of Nitrate Levels in Raw Water and Finished Water from Historical Monitoring Data on Iowa Municipal Drinking Water Supplies

Nitrate contamination of water sources is a concern where large amounts of nitrogen fertilizers are regularly applied to soils. Ingested nitrate from dietary sources and drinking water can be converted to nitrite and ultimately to N-nitroso compounds, many of which are known carcinogens. Epidemiologic studies of drinking water nitrate and cancer report mixed findings; a criticism is the use of nitrate concentrations from retrospective drinking water data to assign exposure levels. Residential point-of-use nitrate data are scarce; gaps in historical data for municipal supply finished water hamper exposure classification efforts. We used generalized linear regression models to estimate and compare historical raw water and finished water nitrate levels (1960s--1990s) in single source Iowa municipal supplies to determine whether raw water monitoring data could supplement finished water data to improve exposure assessment. Comparison of raw water and finished water samples (same sampling date) showed a significant difference in nitrate levels in municipalities using rivers; municipalities using other surface water or alluvial groundwater had no difference in nitrate levels. A regional aggregation of alluvial groundwater municipalities was constructed based on results from a previous study showing regional differences in nitrate contamination of private wells; results from this analysis were mixed, dependent upon region and decade. These analyses demonstrate using historical raw water nitrate monitoring data to supplement finished water data for exposure assessment is appropriate for individual Iowa municipal supplies using alluvial groundwater, lakes or reservoirs. Using alluvial raw water data on a regional basis is dependent on region and decade.     

Cancer and Non-Cancer Health Risk from Eating Cassava Grown in Some Mining Communities in Ghana

Food crops such as cassava, cocoyam and other tuber crops grown in mining communities uptake toxic or hazardous chemicals such as arsenic, and cadmium, from the soil. Cassava is a stable food for Ghanaians. This study evaluated human health risk from eating cassava grown in some mining communities in Ghana such as Bogoso, Prestea, Tarkwa and Tamso, which are important mining towns in the Western Region of Ghana. The study evaluated cancer and non-cancer health effects from eating cassava grown in the study areas in accordance with US Environmental Protection Agency’s Risk Assessment guidelines. The results of the study revealed the following: cancer health risk for Tamso, 0.098 (RME – Reasonable Maximum Exposure) and 0.082 (CTE – Central Tendency Exposure). This means that approximately 10 and 8 out of 100 resident adults are likely to suffer from cancer related cases by RME and CTE parameters respectively. For Prestea, we have 0.010 and 0.12, which also means that approximately 1 out of 100 and 10 resident adults out of 100 are also likely to suffer from cancer related diseases by RME and CTE parameters. The results of the study obtained were found to be above the acceptable cancer risk range of 1× 10⁻⁶ to 1× 10⁻⁴, i.e., 1 case of cancer out of 1 million or 100,000 people respectively.     

An evaluation scheme for assessing the effectiveness of intersection movement assist (IMA) on improving traffic safety

Objective: Intersection movement assist (IMA) has been recognized as one of the prominent countermeasures to reduce angle crashes at intersections, which constitute 22% of total crashes in the United States. Utilizing vehicle-based sensors, vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V), and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) communications, IMA offers extended vision to provide early warning for an imminent crash. However, most of IMA-related research implements their methods and strategies only in simulations, test tracks, or driving simulator studies that have quite a few assumptions and limitations and hence the effectiveness evaluations reported may not be transferable or comparable.

Methods: This study seeks to develop a generalized evaluation scheme that can be used not only to assess the effectiveness of IMA on improving traffic safety at intersections but to facilitate comparisons across similar studies. The proposed evaluation scheme utilizes the concepts of traffic conflict in terms of time-to-collision (TTC) as a crash surrogate. This approach avoids the issue of having insufficient crash frequency data for system evaluation. To measure the effectiveness of IMA on reducing traffic conflicts, a relative risk is calculated for comparing the risk of with/without using the IMA. As a proof-of-concept study, this study applied the proposed evaluation scheme and reported the effectiveness of IMA on improving traffic safety in a field operation test (FOT). Seven test scenarios were conducted at 4 intersections, and a total of 40 participants were recruited to use the IMA for 6 months.

Results: It was estimated that IMA users have 26% fewer conflicts with TTC less than 5 s and have 15% fewer conflicts with TTC less than 4 s. However, the results vary across different sites and different definitions of conflicts in terms of TTC.

Conclusions: Overall, IMA is promising to effectively reduce angle crashes related to sight obstruction and has potential to reduce not only crash frequency but crash severity.