城市安全生产风险评估调研和信息处理方法研究

为城市安全生产风险评估调研工作的合理有序开展,本文结合实际案例归纳了城市安全生产风险评估调研的目的、范围、内容和流程,具体介绍了走访座谈法、常专结合法、函件调研法等信息采集方法,总结了综合归纳法和逻辑处理法等信息处理方法。结果表明,在调研的不同阶段运用不同的调研方法可有效获取城市安全生产风险源信息及安全生产基本信息,为城市安全生产风险评估工作奠定坚实的信息数据资料支撑。     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural‐resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural‐resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait‐ and triage‐based approaches encompassing the oft‐overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco‐physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural‐resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real‐world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.     

Confidence-based quantitative risk analysis for offshore accidental hydrocarbon release events

Quantitative risk analysis (QRA) has been widely used to conduct the assessment of offshore accidental risks. However, the accuracy and validity of QRA is significantly affected by uncertainties when subjective judgments are involved. Therefore, it is unrealistic to determine the probability of a hazardous event by using one single explicit value when safety experts have a relatively low confidence level in their judgments. This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties into conventional QRA using the concept of confidence level. Offshore hydrocarbon release hazards are focused on and a barrier and operational risk analysis (BORA-Release) method is selected as the basic model to illustrate the proposed methodology. A left–right (L–R) bell-shaped fuzzy number is employed and its membership curve is able to control its shape to represent different confidence levels. As to the complex geometry of the bell-shaped fuzzy number, an α-cut operation is introduced to conduct the arithmetic operations of the fuzzy number, and a defuzzification method with total integral value is chosen to match the α-cut operations and acquire complete information for the fuzzy numbers. In the meantime, an optimism index is used to describe the attitude of the decision-maker. One case study is provided in this paper to demonstrate the implementation of this method.     

Quantifying progress toward a conservation assessment for all plants

The Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) set an ambitious target to achieve a conservation assessment for all known plant species by 2020. We consolidated digitally available plant conservation assessments and reconciled their scientific names and assessment status to predefined standards to provide a quantitative measure of progress toward this target. The 241,919 plant conservation assessments generated represent 111,824 accepted land plant species (vascular plants and bryophytes, not algae). At least 73,081 and up to 90,321 species have been assessed at the global scale, representing 21–26% of known plant species. Of these plant species, at least 27,148 and up to 32,542 are threatened. Eighty plant families, including some of the largest, such as Asteraceae, Orchidaceae, and Rubiaceae, are underassessed and should be the focus of assessment effort if the GSPC target is to be met by 2020. Our data set is accessible online (ThreatSearch) and is a baseline that can be used to directly support other GSPC targets and plant conservation action. Although around one‐quarter of a million plant assessments have been compiled, the majority of plants are still unassessed. The challenge now is to build on this progress and redouble efforts to document conservation status of unassessed plants to better inform conservation decisions and conserve the most threatened species.     

发展型心理契约视角下情感性组织安全文化对员工安全风险作用机理研究——基于国有煤炭企业的调研数据

为了探索情感性组织安全文化对员工安全风险的作用机理,从发展型心理契约视角出发,设计情感性组织安全文化、发展型心理契约及员工安全风险测度量表,采用结构方程方法分别构建了情感性组织安全文化对员工安全风险直接作用、间接作用和两种作用耦合情形下的作用模型。结果表明:"情感性组织安全文化"对"员工安全风险"有正向影响,"情感性组织安全文化"对"发展型心理契约"有显著正向影响,同时"发展型心理契约"对"员工安全风险"有显著正向影响;在以上直接作用和间接作用耦合情形下,"情感性组织安全文化"对"员工安全风险"不存在直接的正向作用,但"情感性组织安全文化"通过"发展型心理契约"对"员工安全风险"产生正向影响的效果更加显著。研究表明,通过情感性组织安全文化建设降低员工安全风险,融入促进员工发展型心理契约均衡因素,能起到事半功倍的效果。     

基于改进型AHP与证据理论的应答器系统风险评估

为了科学客观地对应答器系统进行风险评估,规避评估过程中的主观性和不确定性,提出了一种基于改进型AHP与证据理论的评估方法。首先识别系统的风险因素,采用改进型AHP法确定风险因素的权重;然后依据权重将模糊子集引入证据体空间,并加入模糊概率,将专家的模糊描述转换为定量描述,利用证据理论合成规则得到系统风险的mass函数值。最后,以应答器系统为例进行风险评估,结果表明,该方法的评估结果与实际情况基本吻合,验证了该方法的可靠性和有效性。     

基于层次分析法的热塑性聚氨酯及其纳米复合材料火灾危险性综合评价

聚合物的火灾危险性与热、烟、毒的释放密切相关,但采用不同指标对材料的评价结果不一致。以纳米级蒙脱土(MMT)、氢氧化铝(ATH)和聚磷酸铵(APP)为添加剂的热塑性聚氨酯(TPU)纳米复合材料为研究对象,选取其在静态管式炉、稳态管式炉和锥形量热仪中的相关实验数据,以HCN总浓度作为特殊毒性危害指标,CO和CO_2浓度为一般毒性危害指标,以热释放速率峰值、平均热释放速率、总热释放量为热危害指标,以产烟速率峰值、生烟总量为烟危害指标。进一步细分了火灾烟气中不同毒性气体对于火灾风险的影响,并运用层次分析法计算指标权重,综合评价了热塑性聚氨酯及其复合材料的火灾危险性。结果表明,当添加量为6 wt%聚磷酸铵、3 wt%氢氧化铝与3 wt%蒙脱土时,此时复合材料的火灾危险最低,证明了综合热、烟、毒三个层次来降低聚合物材料火灾危险性是可行的。     

Driving concerns among older adults: Associations with driving skill,behaviors, and experiences

Objectives: The purpose of this investigation was to determine what older adults find most concerning about driving as they age and how these concerns are related to driving skill, behaviors, and experiences.

Methods: In partnership with the Maryland Motor Vehicle Administration, a sample of 751 older adults ages 65 and older completed an online survey between October 2017 and May 2018. A content analysis was used to code open-ended responses about driver concerns, and multivariate logistic regression models were used to analyze the associations between driving concerns and driving skill, behavior, and experiences.

Results: Eighty-four percent of participants reported at least one driving concern, with 44% concerned about others’ driving, 34% concerned about their own driving, and 24% concerned about driving conditions. The most frequently mentioned driving concerns were other drivers in general, driving at night, visual ability and awareness, and other drivers being aggressive or reckless. Being concerned with their own driving was significantly associated with decreased perceived driving skill and increased odds of experiencing negative driving experiences in the past year. Being concerned about others’ driving was associated with increased odds of wearing a seat belt (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]?=?2.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02, 7.00), having high perceived driving skills in emergency situations (AOR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.14, 2.12), and getting in a near crash or collision in the past year (AOR = 1.50; 95% CI, 1.04, 2.18).

Conclusions: Older adult drivers are frequently concerned about their own driving as well as the driving of others. Implications for future research and health practice are discussed.     

Operational leeway in work situations: do ergonomic risk assessment tools consider operational leeway for job analysis?

Our study shows that information on operational leeway is limited in the originator articles of the ergonomic risk assessment tools for prevention of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs). The tools’ underlying theoretical models do not consider the indicators of operational leeway, and they cannot determine the sufficiency of the situational operational leeway in a work situation. Consequently, regulation of the activity, which ensures the performance goals and the individual's health, has been overlooked. The lack of literature on indicators of situational operational leeway is one of the reasons for this deficit. Defining the indicators for this concept would be an innovation in the approach of MSD risk prevention. Developing empirically the concept of situational operational leeway in risk assessment tools would help to progress the current approach of MSD prevention. This study therefore proposes indicators of situational operational leeway to increase the representativeness and reliability of the risk assessment tools for MSDs.